VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama

Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman

[TonyInOhio]

PPP, Marist, Quinnipiac, and other media pollsters are based their numbers on the assumption that turnout for Obama will equal or exceed his 2008 performance. Yet, hard data from real voting shows that he isn't coming close to matching his 2008 effort. Similar results apply in Ohio, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

Before you panic about poll numbers keep this in mind - they don't reflect reality on the ground.

[TonyInOhio]

More:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. '08

[Perdogg]

It is early AB not EV

[TonyInOhio]

One more:

VA EARLY VOTE: By no means does this spreadsheet spell doom for Obama in VA, it just shows '12 ain't at all '08

But the pollsters think it is - in fact, they think it is *better* than 2008!

[TonyInOhio]

It is early AB not EV

Yes, I know, but I'm using Wasserman's term. Also, votes are votes, and turnout is turnout. :)

[driftdiver]

Karl Rove was on Fox this morning. According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.

Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

It’s pretty obvious now the wheels are coming off the cooked polls train. They’ve survived by speculation and conjecture. The hard numbers are difficult to explain.

I’m so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.

[pgkdan]

I’ve ben working the phones for Romney. This last week it’s all GOTV calls and I gotta tell you...Romney voters are ALL anxious to vote, although few are willing to vote early (myself included).

[TonyInOhio]

Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.

You mean that Obama's 260,000 margin from 2008 has been wiped out in the early voting, so the current spread is close to zero, right?

[ScottinVA]

Yes, I know, but I'm using Wasserman's term. Also, votes are votes, and turnout is turnout. :)

My question is, are the comparisons seen here 2012 AB vs 2008 AB+EV or AB vs AB only. Hoping we're not seeing an apples and oranges comparison.

[Nervous Tick]

>> According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.

Ohio? Virginia? Or ???

Thx

[stroll]

What "early vote"?? Virginia doesn't have early voting stations, only absentee ballots permitted if and only if the government decides you have a good enough excuse.

As an aside, the Hurricane Sandy mess is a perfect illustration of why all states should have at least two weeks of full early voting, thus insuring against any such predictable but not avoidable disruptions affecting the election.

[ArrogantBustard]

Gotta love the subtle headline bias.

These results are "troubling for 0bama" ... 0bama is the central figure, the 'hero'.

Why are these results not presented as "reassuring for Romney"?

[driftdiver]

Sorry that was Ohio, but its consistent with VA it seems.

Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.

[MHT]

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)

That might be down but not out...we have to beat his numbers before hand to make up for the built-in fraud that's coming our way...Dems have lawyered-up in all the swing states and we may not have a winner next Wednesday.

[scbison]

Obama isnt’ visiting VA or CO last weekend of campaing, just OHIO, IA and WIA(Thinking he is writing off OH and CO).. Romney is going VA, OH WI and TDB for Sunday.. possibly MI????

[kabar]

It is early in-person AB. I have already voted along with the rest of my family here in Fairfax County. As a poll observer and handing out voting materials at a satellite polling location in McLean, something I also did in 2008, I am astounded that the Reps are holding even if not surpassing the Dems. There are a surprisingly significant number of young people voting Rep along with the usual predominance of seniors.

And Asians are also voting Rep this time around compared to 2008. Very encouraging. There is no doubt that our people are more motivated and enthusiastic. We are averaging about 400 absentee in-person ballots a day since it started on October 17 at the satellite locations. The voting at the Government Center started a few weeks earlier. From Rep officials I am hearing that we are even if not a little bit ahead of the Dems in early voting countywide. Obama won Fairfax County, the largest in the state, by 110,000 votes. If we can break about even here, Romney will easily win the state. So far, so good. Three more days of early voting.

[TonyInOhio]

My question is, are the comparisons seen here 2012 AB vs 2008 AB+EV or AB vs AB only

Wasserman is doing direct comparison with 2008, so I assume it is AB vs. AB only. Did VA have early (non-absentee) voting in 2008? I can't imagine him not mentioning it, if so.

[Nervous Tick]

>> Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.

Very cool!

Thanks.

[TonyInOhio]

Thanks for the encouraging report!

I posted this info mostly to help point out the obvious bias in the media polling, which I suspect will be over the top this weekend. The MSM wants you discouraged, but all of the information coming out from early and absentee voting in the states Romney needs to win shows him holding his own or surpassing Obama. Meaning: he wins!