Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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Here we go! 5 days left.
This sample has 2 days of post Sandy polling. This data also (allegedly) has 2 days of polling where Rasmussen polled 1000 people daily instead of his usual 500
No internals are available yet, so we cannot calculate right now what the "D+" number is. When we last got internals, Rasmussen was using D+3
So, the race remains broadly stable, outside of statistical noise
I look forward to studying the internal data (along with nhwingut) when it is made available to analyze the internal trends
Here is what I am looking for in the internal data:
1. The lead the Governor has with Independents 2. His gender "gap" 3. Right Track/Wrong Track 4. Overall job approval and approval index 5. Number of Hispanics/Asians voting "R" 6. The percentage of the Republican base that the Governor is getting
More soon. Stay tuned!
Is Gallup announcing a poll today?
Stable Ras ping!
Good to see it stable. Liked it better when Romney was sitting at 50%, but absolutely love to see Obama still sitting well south of 50. Seems to show the lead is steady.
Was actually sweating this one today to see if it showed any fundamental changes with the storm/campaign lull. Seems to back up many of our views that this race moved fundamentally to Romney in October, and those that made up their mind are sticking with their decision.
I’m going to name my next dead cat Sandy and see how she bounces.
It will be interesting to see the internals. It does not appear that Sandy has created some magical bounce for Obama.
The jobs report out tomorrow might have an impact, depending on what it says.
No, they are not (as per their blog).
They did not poll Tue and Wed. They will start polling today.
They may not (still unsure) release a poll till Monday. In their blog it seemed like they wanted to collect a four day rolling sample
It’s gonna be a bumpy ride for the next few days! Hang tight. Also I’ve contributed to the campaign and would like to make calls (from TX) but I wonder if I’ll end up being more a hindrance. I know I hate calls from campaigns and wonder if anything else anyone would recommend I do for the next 5 days. If it’s calls, I’ll call. I have tomorrow off - instead of biting my fingernails and staring at early voting/polls/freerepublic, I’d like to do something to help.
1) Romney’s 4th day at 49 percent signals a slight down shift in his support.
2) Obama’s stuck at 47%.
3) If the race stays where it is, and Rasmussen’s turnout model is correct, Obama is going to lose the popular vote.
Gallup will not report today because they did not poll either Tues or Wednesday. They announced they will begin polling again today so we should see the numbers begin again tomorrow.
Too close for comfort! No wonder the LSM doesn’t want to release those emails which show Obama gave the stand down order in the Benghazi attack.
Do not understand why Ras is using a D+3 turnout model when all the other pollsters show far greater enthusiasm amongst Republicans versus Dems.
Team RR has a “call from home” program, I believe
Let me check and get back to you
Team OB has been shocked by the high level of “touch” Team RR has done so far
The whole story of the “ground game” and GOTV advantage for the Democrats has died
I feel the same way. These numbers are a relief more than anything.
I didn’t really expect any and I don’t foresee a late Obama surge in the last days of the election; it didn’t happen for McCain and it won’t happen for O.
47% is his ceiling, 42% is his possible low floor and 45% is likely where its going to be on Election Day.
Two things to keep in mind:
1. The media outlets all declared the Wisconsin Recall was too close to call, and we all know how that turned out.
2. The polls showed Kerry up in Ohio by 5 points in the days leading up to the 2004 election, and Bush won Ohio.
and lose the election...
It's coming down to a reversal of 2008, which was 53.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain.
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