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Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/01/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

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COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER

Here we go! 5 days left.

This sample has 2 days of post Sandy polling. This data also (allegedly) has 2 days of polling where Rasmussen polled 1000 people daily instead of his usual 500

No internals are available yet, so we cannot calculate right now what the "D+" number is. When we last got internals, Rasmussen was using D+3

So, the race remains broadly stable, outside of statistical noise

I look forward to studying the internal data (along with nhwingut) when it is made available to analyze the internal trends

Here is what I am looking for in the internal data:

1. The lead the Governor has with Independents 2. His gender "gap" 3. Right Track/Wrong Track 4. Overall job approval and approval index 5. Number of Hispanics/Asians voting "R" 6. The percentage of the Republican base that the Governor is getting

More soon. Stay tuned!

1 posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:15 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Is Gallup announcing a poll today?


2 posted on 11/01/2012 7:11:23 AM PDT by traderrob6
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To: tatown; LS; Ravi; nhwingut; Perdogg; InterceptPoint; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Stable Ras ping!


3 posted on 11/01/2012 7:11:29 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Good to see it stable. Liked it better when Romney was sitting at 50%, but absolutely love to see Obama still sitting well south of 50. Seems to show the lead is steady.

Was actually sweating this one today to see if it showed any fundamental changes with the storm/campaign lull. Seems to back up many of our views that this race moved fundamentally to Romney in October, and those that made up their mind are sticking with their decision.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 7:11:59 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I’m going to name my next dead cat Sandy and see how she bounces.


5 posted on 11/01/2012 7:12:14 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SoftwareEngineer

It will be interesting to see the internals. It does not appear that Sandy has created some magical bounce for Obama.

The jobs report out tomorrow might have an impact, depending on what it says.


6 posted on 11/01/2012 7:12:22 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: traderrob6

No, they are not (as per their blog).

They did not poll Tue and Wed. They will start polling today.

They may not (still unsure) release a poll till Monday. In their blog it seemed like they wanted to collect a four day rolling sample


7 posted on 11/01/2012 7:12:37 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

It’s gonna be a bumpy ride for the next few days! Hang tight. Also I’ve contributed to the campaign and would like to make calls (from TX) but I wonder if I’ll end up being more a hindrance. I know I hate calls from campaigns and wonder if anything else anyone would recommend I do for the next 5 days. If it’s calls, I’ll call. I have tomorrow off - instead of biting my fingernails and staring at early voting/polls/freerepublic, I’d like to do something to help.


8 posted on 11/01/2012 7:13:25 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SoftwareEngineer

3 thoughts...

1) Romney’s 4th day at 49 percent signals a slight down shift in his support.

2) Obama’s stuck at 47%.

3) If the race stays where it is, and Rasmussen’s turnout model is correct, Obama is going to lose the popular vote.


9 posted on 11/01/2012 7:13:38 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: traderrob6

Gallup will not report today because they did not poll either Tues or Wednesday. They announced they will begin polling again today so we should see the numbers begin again tomorrow.


10 posted on 11/01/2012 7:14:12 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Too close for comfort! No wonder the LSM doesn’t want to release those emails which show Obama gave the stand down order in the Benghazi attack.

Cheers!


11 posted on 11/01/2012 7:14:33 AM PDT by DoctorBulldog (Hey, Libtards, how's the Moral Imperative to close Gitmo working out for ya'?)
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To: Tulane

Do not understand why Ras is using a D+3 turnout model when all the other pollsters show far greater enthusiasm amongst Republicans versus Dems.


12 posted on 11/01/2012 7:16:04 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: Ravi

Team RR has a “call from home” program, I believe

Let me check and get back to you

Team OB has been shocked by the high level of “touch” Team RR has done so far

The whole story of the “ground game” and GOTV advantage for the Democrats has died


13 posted on 11/01/2012 7:16:24 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
The race has been stalled at 49%R 47%O for the last five days now. If I would have to guess I would say the hurricane effectively froze the race in place where it was on Sunday. The good thing is that Obama seems to have gotten nothing in the way of a bump from the storm. I would prefer for Ras to be back up with a 4 or 5 point margin before election day, but considering undecideds break for the challenger, we are still looking at 52%R 48%O.
14 posted on 11/01/2012 7:16:51 AM PDT by apillar
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To: ilgipper

I feel the same way. These numbers are a relief more than anything.


15 posted on 11/01/2012 7:16:53 AM PDT by RIRed
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To: SoftwareEngineer

No surprises!

I didn’t really expect any and I don’t foresee a late Obama surge in the last days of the election; it didn’t happen for McCain and it won’t happen for O.

47% is his ceiling, 42% is his possible low floor and 45% is likely where its going to be on Election Day.


16 posted on 11/01/2012 7:17:28 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Two things to keep in mind:

1. The media outlets all declared the Wisconsin Recall was too close to call, and we all know how that turned out.

2. The polls showed Kerry up in Ohio by 5 points in the days leading up to the 2004 election, and Bush won Ohio.


17 posted on 11/01/2012 7:17:46 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: traderrob6

According to Josh Jordan (numbers muncher), Gallop is resuming today with announcing polls.


18 posted on 11/01/2012 7:21:31 AM PDT by wolf24
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To: Tulane

and lose the election...


19 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:00 AM PDT by KevinDavis (And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.)
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To: goldstategop
"47% is his [Obama's] ceiling, 42% is his possible low floor and 45% is likely where its going to be on Election Day."

It's coming down to a reversal of 2008, which was 53.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain.

20 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:00 AM PDT by cookcounty ("When I speak, I say what I mean and I mean what I say!" ---Joe Biden, 10/11/2012)
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To: goldstategop
Right on. Michael Graham sums it up best:

Michael Graham ‏@MGraham969
All polls agree: Mitt winning Indies, GOP vote more intense, Obama losing early voting, support capped at 47%. Obama wins...HOW?

21 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:21 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Which makes me think the Marist poll’s finding for IA could be off; they do reveal that Romney is very likely ahead in NH and WI and he’ll win both states Tuesday!


22 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:39 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Nice! I liked it better with R at 50 and 3 pts ahead but it’s better than being down two like zerO is with only five days left.


23 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:54 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: wolf24

Rasmussen also announcing today they polled Wisconsin again and releasing today figures again of Romney 49% Obama 49%, not good for Obama is it....

Obama is visiting Wisc 4 times from Today until Tuesday, that ought to tell you something.


24 posted on 11/01/2012 7:24:17 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Finally!! Internals!!

The Governor is 4 ahead with Independents

The Governor is 6 behind with women

Right Track/Wrong Track: 38/56

Right Track/Wrong Track (Asian/Hispanic): 43/48
Right Track/Wrong Track (Independent): 31/58

Approval Index for Independents: -21%

Percentage of Republican Vote that the Governor is getting: 89%

Hispanic/Asian vote for the Governor: 35%


25 posted on 11/01/2012 7:25:52 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Just glad Romney’s still up 2. At least he’s not down.


26 posted on 11/01/2012 7:26:05 AM PDT by Proudcongal
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Up 4 with indies? Where was he about a week ago?


27 posted on 11/01/2012 7:28:52 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: SoftwareEngineer

What do you think the internals mean? Indy number scares me as does the asian hispanic right track wrong track.


28 posted on 11/01/2012 7:29:48 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: tatown

In double digits, let me check. I think about +12 or so


29 posted on 11/01/2012 7:30:12 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Well that explains the margin shrinkage. Wonder what could have caused such a shift??


30 posted on 11/01/2012 7:32:06 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Lacey2
Do not understand why Ras is using a D+3 turnout model when all the other pollsters show far greater enthusiasm amongst Republicans versus Dems.

I anticipate an incremental move to D+2 or D+1 in the next few days with Raz explaining that his polling shows the turnout race "tightening". That would add a point or two to the current R+2.

In any case, Rasmussen is going to come out with the number that he thinks is going to win him the "Most Accurate Pollster" again this year.

31 posted on 11/01/2012 7:33:02 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Homosexual activist Nate Silver up to 79% chance of obama winning....


32 posted on 11/01/2012 7:33:36 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: tatown

The race was always going to tighten a little.

But no presidential candidate in the lead in early November has ever gone on to lose on Election Day.

Williard Mitt Romney will be our 45th President and you can take that to the bank.


33 posted on 11/01/2012 7:35:18 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Tulane

It’s been explained a million times on here but Rasmussen’s indie number fluctuates from double to single digits in just one polling cycle. It’s one of his less stable/reliable numbers. One time it went from +12 to +6 in one day (something like that). Maybe the expert poll analysts around here can tell us why this is happening????


34 posted on 11/01/2012 7:35:42 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: All

What might this information from Mark Murray of NBC News, @mmurraypolitics, mean?

Romney’s final sked: THU — VA; FRI — WI, OH; SAT — IA, NH, CO; SUN: —TDB; MON –NH

Obama’s final sked: THU — WI, NV, CO; FRI — OH; SAT — OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN — NH, FL, OH, CO; MON — WI, OH, IA


35 posted on 11/01/2012 7:36:36 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: goldstategop

In what poll?


36 posted on 11/01/2012 7:37:19 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: ConservativeDude

Nate Silver is living in a fantasy world.

His projection - take it for a grain of salt - rests on the assumption that this election will be a repeat of 2008.

I think he’s fool but he’s entitled to be one!


37 posted on 11/01/2012 7:37:44 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

THANKS!

Very interesting... That Indy number is scary. But, that could well be a Sandy bounce that will do away quickly.

Sure hope so, anyway.

THANKS Gov Christie!


38 posted on 11/01/2012 7:38:02 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App
39 posted on 11/01/2012 7:40:39 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA (In a previous life I was ...)
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To: ConservativeDude

lol who CARES! I’m about as interested in his opinion as I am of hearing about INTRADE for the gazillionth time.

What gives this man such credibility? Oooo he predicted all the states O would win in 2008? Gee what a genius. Even Rove got that right. It was pretty clear to see last couple of weeks McCain was toast and what states were going for zerO.

What’s Silver’s track record for 2010??

Anyone?


40 posted on 11/01/2012 7:41:19 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: tatown

All the polls show Romney ahead - even leftist ones. He will be overperform by about 5+.

The media is so in love with Obama they can’t see the big picture in front of them or rather they don’t want to see it.

They can believe all they want he’ll win. The polls and the math say the opposite. They are as deluded as Freepers were in 2008 when they concocted fantasy scenarios of a possible McCain victory.

All the wishful thinking in the world isn’t going to make Obama a winner!


41 posted on 11/01/2012 7:41:36 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Looking at recent presdiential election history, the incumbent typically gets one percent and the challneger gets the rest. So with 49-47 Romney, the final popular vote should be close to 52 (51 and some change because of minor party voters) and 48 for the worst US president in history. This type of popular vote lead is not consistent with a concurrent EC loss.


42 posted on 11/01/2012 7:42:12 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: goldstategop

It’s an erotic attachment to obama. That’s all there is to it.

NOW...all that said....while we are all hoping for a blow out, it could be close on Tuesday. We shall see. I’m going to go absolutely nuts if PA falls to Romney early! (And hoping that prick Casey goes down!). If THAT happens, it is going to be a fun night! (Actually, even if obama prevails by say 2 points in PA....that will be a good sign).


43 posted on 11/01/2012 7:42:24 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: John W

Looks like Romney is branching out, going to WI, IA, NH, and CO. States that would have been considered safe or leaning D a few months ago. Obama is trying to hold onto his base. That’s how I see it.


44 posted on 11/01/2012 7:43:00 AM PDT by IndyTiger
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To: John W

I like the fact that Sunday is wide open...Romney can go wherever it looks necessary. If we see a NV, OR, MN in there its mandate hunting :)


45 posted on 11/01/2012 7:44:47 AM PDT by MNlurker
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Since the election will be R +5, add 8 to Romney and subtract 8 to Obama. You have 57-39. Of the remaining 4%, 75% goes to the challenger. So, you have Romney winning 60-40.

Don't doubt me. This will be a Chik-Fil-A landslide election.

46 posted on 11/01/2012 7:44:56 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: ConservativeDude

I love your optimism. I’m a tad more cynical. I don’t see PA turning RED or being within a couple of points. They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue. I still hope though. In reality I think zerO still takes, PA, MI, and NV.


47 posted on 11/01/2012 7:48:55 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

I believe fag boy Silver predicted a GOP gain of about 35 seats in 2010. Way under reality.

I believe that he called MA for Brown in that special Senate election.

So, his record is mixed. You are quite correct: it didn’t take a genius to see McCain was toast in 2008. In fact, this goes back to 2006 when Ohio elected a Dem governor. Many of us said at that time that the next Prez was a D. And so it was. Sure Silver got that right. But so did a lot of us obscure watchers.

I agree with all here who say that 2012 for Romney sort of “feels” like 2008 for obama.

As one wisely put it, “who would we think is winning if there were no polls?” Clearly, Romney.

And...the polls buttress that possibility. According to the polls (not Silver of course...), Romney might win.

But if you look beyond them, it is clear: Romney has the momentum. He is doing better, and that should drive him across the finish line. He “might” actually win big....we sure hope so. That possibility is consistent with the data plus the feel. It might turn out to be 1980 again after all.....


48 posted on 11/01/2012 7:49:17 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

The most interesting number in internals is that the Presidential approval index is -21 with Independents

People typically vote in line with approval numbers

The President’s approval numbers with Independents are: 44/52. In other words, 8% swing TOWARDS the Governor if you want to use these numbers as a proxy for the final vote

So, if the Governor wins Independents by 8, gets 90%+ of the Republican vote, then he should still win even if we have a 2008 turnout

The assumption I make here is that 10% of Registered Democrats vote for the Governor, but only 5% of Registered Republicans vote for the President. This is based on STRONG Disapprove number of 10% for Democrats of the President

The other assumption is that the 4% undecided “Other” vote breaks 3-1 for the Governor. This is the norm for a challenger

Here is the math:

D/R/I 2008 Turnout: 39/32/29

President’s Final Numbers: (39 * 0.9) + (32 * 0.05) (29 * 0.45) = 49.75
Governor’s Final Number: (32 * 0.95) + (39 * 0.1) +(29 * 0.55) = 50.25

Now keep in mind this is using the 2008 model!!! Not the 2010 model, not the 2004 model, not the Rasmussen 2012 turnout model, not the Gallup 2012 turnout model

My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker

:-) :-)

Hope that helps!


49 posted on 11/01/2012 7:50:01 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: goldstategop
Nate Silver is living in a fantasy world.

He sure stands to lose a LOT of credibility if he keeps his current stance and is proven wrong by a R+ turnout.

50 posted on 11/01/2012 7:50:30 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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