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Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/01/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

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To: SoftwareEngineer

I think we’re heading for an R win in WI, IA, CO, OH, and probably PA and possibly MI. Even OR is now on the table.


101 posted on 11/01/2012 10:16:33 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Jeff Head

Er, Jeff, OR will go red before WA does.


102 posted on 11/01/2012 10:24:06 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tcrlaf

As a disaffected “Paul Crazy,” and while I obviously can’t speak for all the others, I can tell you that real Libertarians don’t get riled up by, and certainly don’t get their marching orders from the Daily Kos. The positions espoused by The Daily Kos are anathema to Libertarians. I cannot imagine any Libertarian preferring Obamugabe to Romney - unless he says to himself, “America was great while it lasted, but we’ve been on a long, steep slide down; let’s just get it over with.”

As to polling numbers, this will be all about turn-out. Recent events (e.g., the Tea Party rise, the 2010 election, the Wisconsin recall results, the Chik-Fil-a rallies nationwide) all point to a huge, able-to-organize-on-a-moment’s-notice, and highly energized, anti-Obama, anti-Big Government movement that has only grown stronger. Nothing should suggest anything other than the 2012 election is THE moment these groups have been waiting for. The 2008 turn-out models DO NOT APPLY.

Personally, I think Romney gets at least 54% of the Popular Vote and well north of 300 EV’s.


103 posted on 11/01/2012 10:25:54 AM PDT by rashley (Rashley)
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To: LS

Hey dude. I respect ya. I’m encouraged to see you say that.


104 posted on 11/01/2012 11:39:04 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I love you.


105 posted on 11/01/2012 11:41:39 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
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To: apillar

I agree.

Assuming Ras is correct, it is huge news that Obama hasn’t budged an inch due to the hurricane. I admit I was extremely worried about him getting a bounce.

I am now expecting the traditional election model to unfold where the challenger wins late deciders by a 3-1 margin. If so, Rove’s 51 - 48 prediction will be right non the money.


106 posted on 11/01/2012 12:42:19 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Lazamataz

Love you right back!

Although I am glad I am not a girl, cause if I was, and you saw my pic, I would be voted “Guilty”

;-)


107 posted on 11/01/2012 12:44:27 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer; tatown; LS; Ravi; Perdogg; InterceptPoint

I’ve been sick the past couple of days. Just trying to get back on feet. Hope to be back tomorrow for stretch run.

In short, race looking steady with Rasmussen. Seems to be tightening up elsewhere. Looks to be a turnout vote now. And not preference cascade like I thought last week. But lots of bias in the polling data - so tough to tell.

If Obama is still at 47% by Monday, Romney wins the election rather easily. Chat tomorrow.


108 posted on 11/01/2012 12:45:44 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Perhaps. But I am an equal opportunity hitter.

Seriously, thanks for the heads up on the poll. :)


109 posted on 11/01/2012 12:54:23 PM PDT by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
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To: paul544

Historically, there is almost always a rallying to the incumbent in the week or so before the election as he locks down some of his wavering supporters. As the week winds down, however, that number usually changes very little and the remaining undecideds break heavily for the challenger.

If form holds, then Obama winds up with right around 48%, which leaves Romney just about 51%. Exactly what Rove is predicting FWIW.


110 posted on 11/01/2012 1:00:19 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: LS

I know...it was my mistake when I clicked over there. That was supposed to be OR...but, who knows, maybe we will take both. I figure if we get into the “Best Case” scenario, there’s no telling how it will really end up.


111 posted on 11/01/2012 2:15:04 PM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: MuttTheHoople

Trying to take away my title of Most Optimistic Freeper I see.


112 posted on 11/01/2012 2:26:43 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Rasmussen Electoral College Breakdown

Romney 285
0bama 243

Safe Romney (167)
AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), GA (16), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (8), LA (8), MS (6), ND (3), NE (5), OK (7), SC (9), SD (3), TN (11), TX (38), UT (6), WV (5), WY (3)

Likely Romney (21)
Arizona (11): Romney 52%, 0bama 44% (October 25, 2012)
Missouri (10): Romney 54%, 0bama 43% (October 19, 2012)

Leans Romney (18)
Montana (3): Romney 53%, 0bama 45% (October 17, 2012)
North Carolina (15): Romney 52%, 0bama 46% (October 27, 2012)

Toss-up (95) - Romney 79, 0bama 6
Florida (29): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 26, 2012)
Ohio (18): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 29, 2012)
Virginia (13): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 25, 2012)
Colorado (9): Romney 50%, 0bama 47% (November 01, 2012)
Iowa (6): Romney 49%, 0bama 48% (November 01, 2012)
New Hampshire (4): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 24, 2012)
Wisconsin (10): 0bama 49%, Romney 49% (November 01, 2012)
Nevada (6): 0bama 50%, Romney 48% (October 24, 2012)

Leans 0bama (37)
Connecticut (7): 0bama 52%, Romney 45% (October 23, 2012)
Minnesota (10): 0bama 51%, Romney 46% (October 23, 2012)
Pennsylvania (20): 0bama 51%, Romney 46% (October 25, 2012)

Likely 0bama (28)
Michigan (16): 0bama 52%, Romney 45% (October 12, 2012)
New Mexico (5): 0bama 54%, Romney 43% (October 10, 2012)
Oregon (7)

Safe 0bama (172)
CA (55), DC (3), DE (3), HI (4), IL (20), MA (11), MD (10), ME (4), NJ (14), NY (29), RI (4), VT (3), WA (12)
113 posted on 11/01/2012 2:28:03 PM PDT by Brown Deer (Pray for 0bama. Psalm 109:8)
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To: Rockitz

Does your wife know anything about international currency manipulation and foreign exchange rate pegging and how they affect the economy? It isn’t a wish for war and probably something that cannot even be changed since China by buying U.S. debt, causes its currency to depreciate boosting its exports. And we are going to need those purchases Romney or no Romney.

About the most that can be expected is some kind of face-saving arrangement for both sides allowing the issue to be dropped while we concentrate on getting the U.S. Government out of the way of business.

Tell your wife she has to look at the entire Romney campaign not just this part. There won’t be anyone she can completely agree with. Lord knows almost all of us here have our own crow to pick with Romney.


114 posted on 11/01/2012 2:38:59 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: ModelBreaker

I think pollsters are getting responses from less that the normal 9% which will talk to them. Even as low as 3%.

My guess is a majority of the Silent Ones are conservative.


115 posted on 11/01/2012 2:46:06 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

“I think pollsters are getting responses from less that the normal 9% which will talk to them. Even as low as 3%.”

Our experience among Independents this election cycle is that it is less than 3%, considerably.


116 posted on 11/01/2012 3:32:19 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Nate’s model may be good. But his source data of skewed polls, messes it all up. His baseball stuff is different, because you are basing on a lot of historical data (HR, RBI, etc).


117 posted on 11/01/2012 5:37:39 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Couple of questions:

1) Other than a way too favorable rating on Obama's four-year term, what does "D+" stand for?

2) Is there a RELIABLE and UNEMOTIONAL (right or left) prognosis on the electoral college? Some are pointing to stats that say Obama's got the 270 that he needs to win.

118 posted on 11/01/2012 5:55:03 PM PDT by PapaNew
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To: PapaNew

Hi PapaNew,

1. D+ stands for how many more democrats (as a percentage) will vote than Republicans

For example, on election day, out of a total of 100 voters, you had 40 Democrats, 35 Republicans and 25 Independents then you had a D+5 turnout.

So, in 2008 Democrats turned out in great numbers and were D+8. We are all (here on FR) hoping that this year it is D+1 or less.

2. Regarding “reliable” prognosis, take Rasmussen as your guide. He right now has Governor on a course to win (within the Margin of Error, ofcourse ;-))


119 posted on 11/01/2012 6:23:14 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

NHWinGut,

So sorry to hear about your illness. Prayers for a speedy recovery.

FR isn’t the same without your expert analysis.

We need you!

God Bless!


120 posted on 11/01/2012 6:45:09 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: erod
I remember the election of 1980 very well as it was the year I turned 18 and thus the first year I was eligible to vote. Also, I had just joined the U.S. Marine Corp after high school on delayed enlistment program (boot camp started Feb 10, 1981).

There was zero alternative media back then like internet, podcasts or even talk radio. Well, they had some talk radio but it was predominantly liberal, at least in Boston (Jerry Williams, Larry Glick).

So the media narrative that entire election season was that Carter would handily win re-election. The attempted rescue that April of the Iran hostages failed but according to the media, the fact that Carter even tried, would ensure his re-election.

Also, we had John Anderson, a Republican turned Independent, running as a third party candidate and the conventional wisdom had it that he would offer the GOP establishment an alternative to the "reckless cowboy" Reagan and thus split the Republican vote that would allow Carter to easily cruise to victory.

Then we had the famous Reagan-Carter debate on October 28 just one week before the Nov 4 election (yes, they only had the one debate), in which Reagan completely out-classed the hapless Carter, just like Romney did in the first debate against Obama. Reagan came across as very presidential and in 90 minutes, completely devastated the mainstream media meme that Reagan was a reckless cowboy who would lead us into World War 3.

Below is an election map of the counties that Reagan won (red) compared to Carter (blue). What is rather amazing about this map is that the Deep South was still so Democratic at that time. Of course, it helped that Carter was a native of Georgia. But still, most of those blue areas in the South will be red on Tuesday night and of course, all the major cities in the Northeast, Midwest and on the West Coast will be Obama blue.


121 posted on 11/01/2012 6:53:31 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

History repeats itself thanks! :)


122 posted on 11/01/2012 8:00:48 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Thanks SE and may God continue to have mercy and grace on our beloved country.


123 posted on 11/02/2012 4:22:24 AM PDT by PapaNew
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To: arrogantsob

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/333033/why-romney-lost-hispanic-vote-mona-charen

“Even Asian voters appear to have been alienated by the Republican tone, giving Obama 73 percent of their votes.”


124 posted on 11/08/2012 9:53:15 PM PST by Rockitz (This is NOT rocket science - Follow the money and you'll find the truth.)
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