Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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I think we’re heading for an R win in WI, IA, CO, OH, and probably PA and possibly MI. Even OR is now on the table.
Er, Jeff, OR will go red before WA does.
As a disaffected “Paul Crazy,” and while I obviously can’t speak for all the others, I can tell you that real Libertarians don’t get riled up by, and certainly don’t get their marching orders from the Daily Kos. The positions espoused by The Daily Kos are anathema to Libertarians. I cannot imagine any Libertarian preferring Obamugabe to Romney - unless he says to himself, “America was great while it lasted, but we’ve been on a long, steep slide down; let’s just get it over with.”
As to polling numbers, this will be all about turn-out. Recent events (e.g., the Tea Party rise, the 2010 election, the Wisconsin recall results, the Chik-Fil-a rallies nationwide) all point to a huge, able-to-organize-on-a-moment’s-notice, and highly energized, anti-Obama, anti-Big Government movement that has only grown stronger. Nothing should suggest anything other than the 2012 election is THE moment these groups have been waiting for. The 2008 turn-out models DO NOT APPLY.
Personally, I think Romney gets at least 54% of the Popular Vote and well north of 300 EV’s.
Hey dude. I respect ya. I’m encouraged to see you say that.
I love you.
Assuming Ras is correct, it is huge news that Obama hasn’t budged an inch due to the hurricane. I admit I was extremely worried about him getting a bounce.
I am now expecting the traditional election model to unfold where the challenger wins late deciders by a 3-1 margin. If so, Rove’s 51 - 48 prediction will be right non the money.
Love you right back!
Although I am glad I am not a girl, cause if I was, and you saw my pic, I would be voted “Guilty”
I’ve been sick the past couple of days. Just trying to get back on feet. Hope to be back tomorrow for stretch run.
In short, race looking steady with Rasmussen. Seems to be tightening up elsewhere. Looks to be a turnout vote now. And not preference cascade like I thought last week. But lots of bias in the polling data - so tough to tell.
If Obama is still at 47% by Monday, Romney wins the election rather easily. Chat tomorrow.
Perhaps. But I am an equal opportunity hitter.
Seriously, thanks for the heads up on the poll. :)
Historically, there is almost always a rallying to the incumbent in the week or so before the election as he locks down some of his wavering supporters. As the week winds down, however, that number usually changes very little and the remaining undecideds break heavily for the challenger.
If form holds, then Obama winds up with right around 48%, which leaves Romney just about 51%. Exactly what Rove is predicting FWIW.
I know...it was my mistake when I clicked over there. That was supposed to be OR...but, who knows, maybe we will take both. I figure if we get into the “Best Case” scenario, there’s no telling how it will really end up.
Trying to take away my title of Most Optimistic Freeper I see.
Does your wife know anything about international currency manipulation and foreign exchange rate pegging and how they affect the economy? It isn’t a wish for war and probably something that cannot even be changed since China by buying U.S. debt, causes its currency to depreciate boosting its exports. And we are going to need those purchases Romney or no Romney.
About the most that can be expected is some kind of face-saving arrangement for both sides allowing the issue to be dropped while we concentrate on getting the U.S. Government out of the way of business.
Tell your wife she has to look at the entire Romney campaign not just this part. There won’t be anyone she can completely agree with. Lord knows almost all of us here have our own crow to pick with Romney.
I think pollsters are getting responses from less that the normal 9% which will talk to them. Even as low as 3%.
My guess is a majority of the Silent Ones are conservative.
“I think pollsters are getting responses from less that the normal 9% which will talk to them. Even as low as 3%.”
Our experience among Independents this election cycle is that it is less than 3%, considerably.
Nate’s model may be good. But his source data of skewed polls, messes it all up. His baseball stuff is different, because you are basing on a lot of historical data (HR, RBI, etc).
1) Other than a way too favorable rating on Obama's four-year term, what does "D+" stand for?
2) Is there a RELIABLE and UNEMOTIONAL (right or left) prognosis on the electoral college? Some are pointing to stats that say Obama's got the 270 that he needs to win.
1. D+ stands for how many more democrats (as a percentage) will vote than Republicans
For example, on election day, out of a total of 100 voters, you had 40 Democrats, 35 Republicans and 25 Independents then you had a D+5 turnout.
So, in 2008 Democrats turned out in great numbers and were D+8. We are all (here on FR) hoping that this year it is D+1 or less.
2. Regarding “reliable” prognosis, take Rasmussen as your guide. He right now has Governor on a course to win (within the Margin of Error, ofcourse ;-))
So sorry to hear about your illness. Prayers for a speedy recovery.
FR isn’t the same without your expert analysis.
We need you!
There was zero alternative media back then like internet, podcasts or even talk radio. Well, they had some talk radio but it was predominantly liberal, at least in Boston (Jerry Williams, Larry Glick).
So the media narrative that entire election season was that Carter would handily win re-election. The attempted rescue that April of the Iran hostages failed but according to the media, the fact that Carter even tried, would ensure his re-election.
Also, we had John Anderson, a Republican turned Independent, running as a third party candidate and the conventional wisdom had it that he would offer the GOP establishment an alternative to the "reckless cowboy" Reagan and thus split the Republican vote that would allow Carter to easily cruise to victory.
Then we had the famous Reagan-Carter debate on October 28 just one week before the Nov 4 election (yes, they only had the one debate), in which Reagan completely out-classed the hapless Carter, just like Romney did in the first debate against Obama. Reagan came across as very presidential and in 90 minutes, completely devastated the mainstream media meme that Reagan was a reckless cowboy who would lead us into World War 3.
Below is an election map of the counties that Reagan won (red) compared to Carter (blue). What is rather amazing about this map is that the Deep South was still so Democratic at that time. Of course, it helped that Carter was a native of Georgia. But still, most of those blue areas in the South will be red on Tuesday night and of course, all the major cities in the Northeast, Midwest and on the West Coast will be Obama blue.
History repeats itself thanks! :)
Thanks SE and may God continue to have mercy and grace on our beloved country.
“Even Asian voters appear to have been alienated by the Republican tone, giving Obama 73 percent of their votes.”