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Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/01/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

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To: snarkytart

They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue.”

Historically, you are so right. PA as someone put it a long time ago, is the ultimate tease.

It could happen that way. But IF somehow it goes red or even almost, then look out! Tsunami Mitt!!!


51 posted on 11/01/2012 7:50:36 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: MuttTheHoople

I believe it will be a big win and I pray to God it’s as you state.


52 posted on 11/01/2012 7:51:32 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I would like to see the R share of Romney up over 92%.


53 posted on 11/01/2012 7:54:59 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SoftwareEngineer
My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker

Now.. THAT makes me smile! :-)

54 posted on 11/01/2012 7:56:13 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: Ravi

One could get on liberal boards for Obama, and pose as an Uber Liberal, with all the talking points from the extreme LEFT to attack him, and encourage people to vote their conscience and not return that scumbag to office but stand up and vote Green Party or Socialist Party, or whatever leftist party is dominate in the state one is targeting by internet activity. That could depress Obama’s turnout, without have to go voice to voice with voters if one is a bit gunshy about that. But it takes a certain skill. One really has to spout Marxist dialectic when one does this. It goes over good in places like Greenwich Village and Berkeley, Austin and Cornell, Colombia and Chicago, Seattle and Santa Fe, those liberal outposts.


55 posted on 11/01/2012 7:56:13 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Donate, & walk precincts, not for "Parties", but for individual, principled "Candidates" (& for FR)
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To: MuttTheHoople

As Much as I’d like to see that, that’s not happening. If it does, I’ll gladly admit my mistake. But there is no way it goes 60-40.


56 posted on 11/01/2012 7:56:23 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: SomeCallMeTim

In 2008 Obama won the indy vote 52-44. If Romney is “only” ahead by four, that is a 12 point turnaround from 2008.


57 posted on 11/01/2012 7:58:22 AM PDT by kabar
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To: ConservativeDude

Ah thank you, so he was off by 30 seats. And again I think the Brown election was kinda obvious but there were polls who had him losing, including Ras.

Nov-6 cannot come fast enough.


58 posted on 11/01/2012 8:00:52 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Not likely.

He’ll blame it on a turnout that nobody expected and blame voter honesty in polling as the culprit.

Kind of like the MU Poll for WI yesterday...+8 Obama but even the pollster used the caveat that turnout could completely change it...not mentioning the BS skew he used of course.


59 posted on 11/01/2012 8:01:10 AM PDT by MNlurker
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either not vote for Obama or neither. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.


60 posted on 11/01/2012 8:02:47 AM PDT by Rockitz (This is NOT rocket science - Follow the money and you'll find the truth.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either vote for Obama or neither candidate. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.


61 posted on 11/01/2012 8:03:52 AM PDT by Rockitz (This is NOT rocket science - Follow the money and you'll find the truth.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Many here will disagree but winning by a couple of points and just enough EV is fine with me. NO I do not want a repeat of 2000 but to turn out a sitting President is a mandate in itself. Landslide in this current demographic is impossible. Don’t forget Cali used to be a state that could go either way. I don’t see it going RED ever again in my life time.

Squeaker is fine as long as zerO is gone.


62 posted on 11/01/2012 8:04:02 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: InterceptPoint

From your lips to God’s ear.


63 posted on 11/01/2012 8:04:23 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: John W
[ Romney’s final sked: THU — VA; FRI — WI, OH; SAT — IA, NH, CO; SUN: —TDB; MON –NH

Obama’s final sked: THU — WI, NV, CO; FRI — OH; SAT — OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN — NH, FL, OH, CO; MON — WI, OH, IA ]

Obama seems awfully worried about Ohio for someone who has it in the bag.

Anyway, both Romney and Obama are spending time in the deciding swing states: OH, WI, CO, NH. Romney must be confident FL is red. He is also only visiting OH once. Hmmmm. Sure doesn't jive with the media's narrative on OH.

Obama campaigning appears more desperate than winning. He is gallivanting all over the place!
Sorry NJ, Obama just used you as a campaign stop and moved on. Your Governor was dumb enough to play along.

64 posted on 11/01/2012 8:10:54 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: LS
I would like to see the R share of Romney up over 92%.

It boggles my mind that this may not be the case.

I wonder what percentage of those Indy's that are leaning so hard toward Romney are former Republicans who switched to Indy because of dissatisfaction with the Party (e.g., Boehner et al)....

65 posted on 11/01/2012 8:11:16 AM PDT by wolf24
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To: snarkytart

yep


66 posted on 11/01/2012 8:11:25 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Or maybe he’s got the inside track on the upcoming jobs number that shows a big improvement?


67 posted on 11/01/2012 8:11:33 AM PDT by paul544
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The one reliable Poll (Rasmussen) has been crippled by Sandy. What they have been reporting is pretty much the same stuff for the last 3 days.


68 posted on 11/01/2012 8:12:33 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: paul544
More cooked numbers? Unemployment rates at the level Obama has maintained for 4 years is unacceptable. PERIOD! I don't care what phony, lowered expectations numbers he releases tomorrow. Anything above 6% is totally unacceptable!
69 posted on 11/01/2012 8:18:43 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: justice14

I think it’ll be a minimum 8 point Romney win, with an EV landslide.


70 posted on 11/01/2012 8:20:07 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

49% to 47% means 4% unaccounted for. Don’t Ras’s final polls always add up to at least 99% of the vote? Seems like someone would have to gain a few points by Tuesday morning. Has he ever put a final poll with this many voters unaccounted for?


71 posted on 11/01/2012 8:28:22 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The Carville rule says that last number which Bork Obunga gets is all he’s ever going to get, i.e. the 47% which Romney himself said no Republican had any shot at. That basically says that we’ve got something like 47% of the electorate which isn’t really doing the gene pool any good.


72 posted on 11/01/2012 8:31:47 AM PDT by varmintman (November Sixth || Obunga is Through || Bork Obunga || Before He Borks You || Burma Shave)
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To: tatown

Yeah, I find that number to be disturbing.


73 posted on 11/01/2012 8:34:16 AM PDT by LittleSpotBlog
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!

Would this be the same Rasmussen that puts out a daily Pres Approval rating that looks like this?

10/31/2012 -11
10/31/2012 -11
10/30/2012 -13
10/29/2012 -12
10/28/2012 -12
10/27/2012 -10
10/26/2012 -12
10/25/2012 -12
10/24/2012 -12
10/23/2012 -16
10/22/2012 -16
10/21/2012 -16
10/20/2012 -16

I for one, am not counting my chickens before they hatch - after all the RAT party is known for their top notch abilities in "getting out the illegal" voters, and stealing elections AFTER the voting booths have closed.
74 posted on 11/01/2012 8:37:46 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Cheerio

What’s interesting about your chart is that as Obama’s approval looks better, so does his national polling. The question is why do voters feel better about him in the last 2 weeks? Some of it is Sandy but not all.


75 posted on 11/01/2012 8:40:07 AM PDT by paul544
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To: Cheerio; LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Cheerio,

The Strong Approve number ALWAYS goes up in the run-up to the election.

Keep in mind that is just the Democrats lining up behind the President

They are just cannibalizing the “Somewhat Approve” number.

Look at the “Overall approval”. Still below 50. Actually very stable in the 47-49% range


76 posted on 11/01/2012 8:42:13 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
What do you make of Rasmussen's statement on Fox last night that he has Democrats +2?

He has Wisconsin, for example, tied at 49. Do I assume that he is applying his 2%, which I presume to be a national number, equally in each state? Is there any reason to believe that that is a valid procedure? I note that he has Republicans +3 on congressional preference and it seems anomalous to me that the overall preference would be +2 Democrat. Finally, what does this measure, merely a preference expressed in general terms by the electorate or is Rasmussen predicting turnout?

Am I wasting time concerning myself about these preference numbers when, as you point out, the approval numbers are far more predictive?


77 posted on 11/01/2012 8:43:05 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
I wasn't around in 1980, but from my reading of history this election feels eerily familiar to something that happened in that time period. A very unpopular incumbent who had a big edge in early polling and was destined to win, then that lead got to be "too close to call" then on election day it was a landslide. Hmmmmm..... I forgot who those two candidates were:

Romney in a landslide, the MSM wants to spin reality, but it's not going to affect the outcome on Tuesday


78 posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:19 AM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: MuttTheHoople

Hope you are right. Too much at stake.


79 posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:51 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: Cheerio

Here is a quote from Rasmussen about the President’s job approval number:

“Since the beginning of 2012, that finding has remained in the narrow range of 47% to 49%”


80 posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:51 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: snarkytart

“Maybe the expert poll analysts around here can tell us why this is happening????”

I have been polling indies in CO. About 2% of them even answer the phone. About 1% will complete the survey. So the voters are self-filtering in a way the pollster cannot control. The indies hate the phone calls as they have been deluged here.


81 posted on 11/01/2012 8:45:03 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Has anyone seen the swing state poll?


82 posted on 11/01/2012 8:47:03 AM PDT by zt1053
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To: nathanbedford; LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ...

Nathan,

Hi! So, here is the disconnect.

When Rasmussen polls and asks people, they say that they are R+2 or R+3. That is what has FReepers so excited

However, that being said, that is ONLY indicative of the general populace. That MAY NOT reflect the actual turnout.

What Rasmussen seems to be saying is that the President’s team is more organized and will get more people out to vote. His “vaunted ground effort”

So, he is saying that despite the R’s being more numerous this time around, more D’s will show up and vote

Now, there are many like LS, NHWinGut, Ravi etc who will disagree with that assertion, as they feel that the R’s are very motivated

The phrase to watch is “Broken glass Republicans”. Republicans so committed to voting that they will crawl over broken glass to get to the voting booth


83 posted on 11/01/2012 8:49:43 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
At this point, I'm thinking it's a 53% (Romney) to 46% (Obama) win, and maybe 54% to 45%, with a Romney electoral college total of around 310, maybe 315.

5 day to go before Fundamental Restoration returns to America!

The Trunaround of 2012
http://www.jeffhead.com/turnaround2012.htm

Here's my three Romney win scenarios.

Worst Case Romney Win:

Likely Case Romney Win:

Best Case Romney Win:


84 posted on 11/01/2012 8:50:41 AM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

Washington, not Oregon?


85 posted on 11/01/2012 8:53:49 AM PDT by TJC (V)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Where is Ras getting his information that zerO’s ground game is better this time around and his supporters are more likely to vote on election day vs Romney supporters?


86 posted on 11/01/2012 9:00:17 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: TJC

Yep...my bad. Meant Oregon, but who knows, maybe we will get both!


87 posted on 11/01/2012 9:07:35 AM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: goldstategop

I’ve been saying for a month that North Carolina will tell us all the tale on election night.

Obama won it in 2008.
The polls close at 7:30PM. If the Nets call it before 830PM, and the margin is greater than +5, a nationwide landslide is in progress.


88 posted on 11/01/2012 9:07:35 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: snarkytart

He is just making an assumption for public entertainment.


89 posted on 11/01/2012 9:12:03 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

If Ras really thinks that (which Gallup disagrees with) it flys in the face of every poll that shows a strong enthusiasm edge for the GOP.


90 posted on 11/01/2012 9:16:47 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: SoftwareEngineer

We need to paste a call from home thread in breaking news or something to get as many Freepers to see it and take action.


91 posted on 11/01/2012 9:16:55 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

WOW!!
Sneak Peek from Rasmussen: Gov Romney up by 1 in IA!!!

R: 49 O:48

R+4 Sample of 750 LV

President up with early voters but the Governor HUGE with those still to vote


92 posted on 11/01/2012 9:16:59 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

sweet...make a thread!!!


93 posted on 11/01/2012 9:20:13 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: wolf24

Libertarians, disaffected Paulistineans...

The DailyKos crowd is really trying to stir up the Paul Crazies.


94 posted on 11/01/2012 9:22:43 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Perdogg

There is no way Dems have higher voter enthusiasm this year.


95 posted on 11/01/2012 9:23:14 AM PDT by zt1053
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To: snarkytart

Snarkytart,

Can’t do. It is still internal. Not public yet!


96 posted on 11/01/2012 9:24:32 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
If Rasmussen or the Democrats are hanging their hopes on their ground game they ought to consider that in the 2 critical states, Wisconsin and Ohio, the Republicans have demonstrated first-class ground games. Unquestionably, the Republican ground game in Wisconsin is first-class and there is no reason to believe that it will not prevail again as it has three times in a row.

Republican ground game in Ohio in 2004 was massive and effective and we are told that the Republicans have far exceeded the metrics in 2012.

If Rasmussen is just pulling this reversal out of his hat, it does not mean a thing. I note that he also said last night on Fox that the Democrats were depending on the youth vote and that was unreliable and the Republicans are favored by the more elderly who are very much motivated for Romney. He gives the edge to Romney, albeit grudgingly.

What I am driving at is that there is nothing on the ground anywhere that says that the Republicans in Ohio and Wisconsin should not prevail in a race tied in the polls. Even if we concede that the Democrats have crafted a good ground game in Ohio in 2008, one might suspect that a good portion of that game was simply the general public hysteria for Obama which has markedly abated.

Where is the impetus for Obama? What will drive people to the polls to support Obama? Why should he be able to break through his 47% ceiling? I simply do not see any reason to believe that the Democrats will perform +2 over the Republicans and this leaves quite apart the distribution of undecideds and independents for Romney.

It has always been the rule of thumb that the tie goes the Republicans, unless the rats can steal it.


97 posted on 11/01/2012 9:27:37 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

Black Inner-City talk radio is absolutely SCREAMING for blacks to go vote for “Brother Obama”, as one put it yesterday, complete with all the race-baiting dog-whistles we have come to expect from these people.

In addition, Pacifica is in a COMPLETE frenzy to get out the vote for Obama, too.


98 posted on 11/01/2012 9:31:49 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: John W

The last days schedules tell me:

Romney thinks he has N.C., In., Fl., Ohio, and Virginia for 266 electoral votes (he keeps all the McCain states) and Romney is trying to pick up the last 4 votes he needs in N.H. (4), Co. (9), or Ia. (6).

Obama is trying for a push to win Ohio and is trying to hold on to Wi., Nv (6), Ia., N.H. to stave off defeat.

Nevada is interesting that Obama feels he needs to shore up and Romney is skipping it.


99 posted on 11/01/2012 9:33:14 AM PDT by Founding Father (The Pedophile moHAMmudd (PBUH---Pigblood be upon him))
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To: tcrlaf
African-American radio will not help the Democrats much in Wisconsin or in Iowa and not that much in Ohio.

They need to sweep the nursing homes, whup the black congregations and lay out walking around money.

Pacifica might help in Madison Wisconsin.


100 posted on 11/01/2012 9:43:27 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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