Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
click here to read article
All the polls show Romney ahead - even leftist ones. He will be overperform by about 5+.
The media is so in love with Obama they can’t see the big picture in front of them or rather they don’t want to see it.
They can believe all they want he’ll win. The polls and the math say the opposite. They are as deluded as Freepers were in 2008 when they concocted fantasy scenarios of a possible McCain victory.
All the wishful thinking in the world isn’t going to make Obama a winner!
Looking at recent presdiential election history, the incumbent typically gets one percent and the challneger gets the rest. So with 49-47 Romney, the final popular vote should be close to 52 (51 and some change because of minor party voters) and 48 for the worst US president in history. This type of popular vote lead is not consistent with a concurrent EC loss.
It’s an erotic attachment to obama. That’s all there is to it.
NOW...all that said....while we are all hoping for a blow out, it could be close on Tuesday. We shall see. I’m going to go absolutely nuts if PA falls to Romney early! (And hoping that prick Casey goes down!). If THAT happens, it is going to be a fun night! (Actually, even if obama prevails by say 2 points in PA....that will be a good sign).
Looks like Romney is branching out, going to WI, IA, NH, and CO. States that would have been considered safe or leaning D a few months ago. Obama is trying to hold onto his base. That’s how I see it.
I like the fact that Sunday is wide open...Romney can go wherever it looks necessary. If we see a NV, OR, MN in there its mandate hunting :)
Don't doubt me. This will be a Chik-Fil-A landslide election.
I love your optimism. I’m a tad more cynical. I don’t see PA turning RED or being within a couple of points. They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue. I still hope though. In reality I think zerO still takes, PA, MI, and NV.
I believe fag boy Silver predicted a GOP gain of about 35 seats in 2010. Way under reality.
I believe that he called MA for Brown in that special Senate election.
So, his record is mixed. You are quite correct: it didn’t take a genius to see McCain was toast in 2008. In fact, this goes back to 2006 when Ohio elected a Dem governor. Many of us said at that time that the next Prez was a D. And so it was. Sure Silver got that right. But so did a lot of us obscure watchers.
I agree with all here who say that 2012 for Romney sort of “feels” like 2008 for obama.
As one wisely put it, “who would we think is winning if there were no polls?” Clearly, Romney.
And...the polls buttress that possibility. According to the polls (not Silver of course...), Romney might win.
But if you look beyond them, it is clear: Romney has the momentum. He is doing better, and that should drive him across the finish line. He “might” actually win big....we sure hope so. That possibility is consistent with the data plus the feel. It might turn out to be 1980 again after all.....
The most interesting number in internals is that the Presidential approval index is -21 with Independents
People typically vote in line with approval numbers
The President’s approval numbers with Independents are: 44/52. In other words, 8% swing TOWARDS the Governor if you want to use these numbers as a proxy for the final vote
So, if the Governor wins Independents by 8, gets 90%+ of the Republican vote, then he should still win even if we have a 2008 turnout
The assumption I make here is that 10% of Registered Democrats vote for the Governor, but only 5% of Registered Republicans vote for the President. This is based on STRONG Disapprove number of 10% for Democrats of the President
The other assumption is that the 4% undecided “Other” vote breaks 3-1 for the Governor. This is the norm for a challenger
Here is the math:
D/R/I 2008 Turnout: 39/32/29
President’s Final Numbers: (39 * 0.9) + (32 * 0.05) (29 * 0.45) = 49.75
Governor’s Final Number: (32 * 0.95) + (39 * 0.1) +(29 * 0.55) = 50.25
Now keep in mind this is using the 2008 model!!! Not the 2010 model, not the 2004 model, not the Rasmussen 2012 turnout model, not the Gallup 2012 turnout model
My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker
Hope that helps!
He sure stands to lose a LOT of credibility if he keeps his current stance and is proven wrong by a R+ turnout.
They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue.”
Historically, you are so right. PA as someone put it a long time ago, is the ultimate tease.
It could happen that way. But IF somehow it goes red or even almost, then look out! Tsunami Mitt!!!
I believe it will be a big win and I pray to God it’s as you state.
I would like to see the R share of Romney up over 92%.
Now.. THAT makes me smile! :-)
One could get on liberal boards for Obama, and pose as an Uber Liberal, with all the talking points from the extreme LEFT to attack him, and encourage people to vote their conscience and not return that scumbag to office but stand up and vote Green Party or Socialist Party, or whatever leftist party is dominate in the state one is targeting by internet activity. That could depress Obama’s turnout, without have to go voice to voice with voters if one is a bit gunshy about that. But it takes a certain skill. One really has to spout Marxist dialectic when one does this. It goes over good in places like Greenwich Village and Berkeley, Austin and Cornell, Colombia and Chicago, Seattle and Santa Fe, those liberal outposts.
As Much as I’d like to see that, that’s not happening. If it does, I’ll gladly admit my mistake. But there is no way it goes 60-40.
In 2008 Obama won the indy vote 52-44. If Romney is “only” ahead by four, that is a 12 point turnaround from 2008.
Ah thank you, so he was off by 30 seats. And again I think the Brown election was kinda obvious but there were polls who had him losing, including Ras.
Nov-6 cannot come fast enough.
He’ll blame it on a turnout that nobody expected and blame voter honesty in polling as the culprit.
Kind of like the MU Poll for WI yesterday...+8 Obama but even the pollster used the caveat that turnout could completely change it...not mentioning the BS skew he used of course.
I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either not vote for Obama or neither. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.