Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue.”
Historically, you are so right. PA as someone put it a long time ago, is the ultimate tease.
It could happen that way. But IF somehow it goes red or even almost, then look out! Tsunami Mitt!!!
I believe it will be a big win and I pray to God it’s as you state.
I would like to see the R share of Romney up over 92%.
Now.. THAT makes me smile! :-)
One could get on liberal boards for Obama, and pose as an Uber Liberal, with all the talking points from the extreme LEFT to attack him, and encourage people to vote their conscience and not return that scumbag to office but stand up and vote Green Party or Socialist Party, or whatever leftist party is dominate in the state one is targeting by internet activity. That could depress Obama’s turnout, without have to go voice to voice with voters if one is a bit gunshy about that. But it takes a certain skill. One really has to spout Marxist dialectic when one does this. It goes over good in places like Greenwich Village and Berkeley, Austin and Cornell, Colombia and Chicago, Seattle and Santa Fe, those liberal outposts.
As Much as I’d like to see that, that’s not happening. If it does, I’ll gladly admit my mistake. But there is no way it goes 60-40.
In 2008 Obama won the indy vote 52-44. If Romney is “only” ahead by four, that is a 12 point turnaround from 2008.
Ah thank you, so he was off by 30 seats. And again I think the Brown election was kinda obvious but there were polls who had him losing, including Ras.
Nov-6 cannot come fast enough.
He’ll blame it on a turnout that nobody expected and blame voter honesty in polling as the culprit.
Kind of like the MU Poll for WI yesterday...+8 Obama but even the pollster used the caveat that turnout could completely change it...not mentioning the BS skew he used of course.
I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either not vote for Obama or neither. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.
I can tell you that my Asian-born wife is put off by Romney’s China stance and has indicated she will either vote for Obama or neither candidate. Fortunately I believe most Asians live in solid-blue states where it may not matter or do not vote at all based on cultural norms since they typically come from totalitarian states.
Many here will disagree but winning by a couple of points and just enough EV is fine with me. NO I do not want a repeat of 2000 but to turn out a sitting President is a mandate in itself. Landslide in this current demographic is impossible. Don’t forget Cali used to be a state that could go either way. I don’t see it going RED ever again in my life time.
Squeaker is fine as long as zerO is gone.
From your lips to God’s ear.
Obamas final sked: THU WI, NV, CO; FRI OH; SAT OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN NH, FL, OH, CO; MON WI, OH, IA ]
Obama seems awfully worried about Ohio for someone who has it in the bag.
Anyway, both Romney and Obama are spending time in the deciding swing states: OH, WI, CO, NH. Romney must be confident FL is red. He is also only visiting OH once. Hmmmm. Sure doesn't jive with the media's narrative on OH.
Obama campaigning appears more desperate than winning. He is gallivanting all over the place!
Sorry NJ, Obama just used you as a campaign stop and moved on. Your Governor was dumb enough to play along.
It boggles my mind that this may not be the case.
I wonder what percentage of those Indy's that are leaning so hard toward Romney are former Republicans who switched to Indy because of dissatisfaction with the Party (e.g., Boehner et al)....
Or maybe he’s got the inside track on the upcoming jobs number that shows a big improvement?
The one reliable Poll (Rasmussen) has been crippled by Sandy. What they have been reporting is pretty much the same stuff for the last 3 days.
I think it’ll be a minimum 8 point Romney win, with an EV landslide.
49% to 47% means 4% unaccounted for. Don’t Ras’s final polls always add up to at least 99% of the vote? Seems like someone would have to gain a few points by Tuesday morning. Has he ever put a final poll with this many voters unaccounted for?
The Carville rule says that last number which Bork Obunga gets is all he’s ever going to get, i.e. the 47% which Romney himself said no Republican had any shot at. That basically says that we’ve got something like 47% of the electorate which isn’t really doing the gene pool any good.
Yeah, I find that number to be disturbing.
What’s interesting about your chart is that as Obama’s approval looks better, so does his national polling. The question is why do voters feel better about him in the last 2 weeks? Some of it is Sandy but not all.
The Strong Approve number ALWAYS goes up in the run-up to the election.
Keep in mind that is just the Democrats lining up behind the President
They are just cannibalizing the “Somewhat Approve” number.
Look at the “Overall approval”. Still below 50. Actually very stable in the 47-49% range
He has Wisconsin, for example, tied at 49. Do I assume that he is applying his 2%, which I presume to be a national number, equally in each state? Is there any reason to believe that that is a valid procedure? I note that he has Republicans +3 on congressional preference and it seems anomalous to me that the overall preference would be +2 Democrat. Finally, what does this measure, merely a preference expressed in general terms by the electorate or is Rasmussen predicting turnout?
Am I wasting time concerning myself about these preference numbers when, as you point out, the approval numbers are far more predictive?
Hope you are right. Too much at stake.
Here is a quote from Rasmussen about the President’s job approval number:
“Since the beginning of 2012, that finding has remained in the narrow range of 47% to 49%”
“Maybe the expert poll analysts around here can tell us why this is happening????”
I have been polling indies in CO. About 2% of them even answer the phone. About 1% will complete the survey. So the voters are self-filtering in a way the pollster cannot control. The indies hate the phone calls as they have been deluged here.
Has anyone seen the swing state poll?
Hi! So, here is the disconnect.
When Rasmussen polls and asks people, they say that they are R+2 or R+3. That is what has FReepers so excited
However, that being said, that is ONLY indicative of the general populace. That MAY NOT reflect the actual turnout.
What Rasmussen seems to be saying is that the President’s team is more organized and will get more people out to vote. His “vaunted ground effort”
So, he is saying that despite the R’s being more numerous this time around, more D’s will show up and vote
Now, there are many like LS, NHWinGut, Ravi etc who will disagree with that assertion, as they feel that the R’s are very motivated
The phrase to watch is “Broken glass Republicans”. Republicans so committed to voting that they will crawl over broken glass to get to the voting booth
5 day to go before Fundamental Restoration returns to America!
The Trunaround of 2012
Here's my three Romney win scenarios.
Worst Case Romney Win:
Likely Case Romney Win:
Best Case Romney Win:
Washington, not Oregon?
Where is Ras getting his information that zerO’s ground game is better this time around and his supporters are more likely to vote on election day vs Romney supporters?
Yep...my bad. Meant Oregon, but who knows, maybe we will get both!
I’ve been saying for a month that North Carolina will tell us all the tale on election night.
Obama won it in 2008.
The polls close at 7:30PM. If the Nets call it before 830PM, and the margin is greater than +5, a nationwide landslide is in progress.
He is just making an assumption for public entertainment.
If Ras really thinks that (which Gallup disagrees with) it flys in the face of every poll that shows a strong enthusiasm edge for the GOP.
We need to paste a call from home thread in breaking news or something to get as many Freepers to see it and take action.
Sneak Peek from Rasmussen: Gov Romney up by 1 in IA!!!
R: 49 O:48
R+4 Sample of 750 LV
President up with early voters but the Governor HUGE with those still to vote
sweet...make a thread!!!
Libertarians, disaffected Paulistineans...
The DailyKos crowd is really trying to stir up the Paul Crazies.
There is no way Dems have higher voter enthusiasm this year.
Can’t do. It is still internal. Not public yet!
Republican ground game in Ohio in 2004 was massive and effective and we are told that the Republicans have far exceeded the metrics in 2012.
If Rasmussen is just pulling this reversal out of his hat, it does not mean a thing. I note that he also said last night on Fox that the Democrats were depending on the youth vote and that was unreliable and the Republicans are favored by the more elderly who are very much motivated for Romney. He gives the edge to Romney, albeit grudgingly.
What I am driving at is that there is nothing on the ground anywhere that says that the Republicans in Ohio and Wisconsin should not prevail in a race tied in the polls. Even if we concede that the Democrats have crafted a good ground game in Ohio in 2008, one might suspect that a good portion of that game was simply the general public hysteria for Obama which has markedly abated.
Where is the impetus for Obama? What will drive people to the polls to support Obama? Why should he be able to break through his 47% ceiling? I simply do not see any reason to believe that the Democrats will perform +2 over the Republicans and this leaves quite apart the distribution of undecideds and independents for Romney.
It has always been the rule of thumb that the tie goes the Republicans, unless the rats can steal it.
Black Inner-City talk radio is absolutely SCREAMING for blacks to go vote for “Brother Obama”, as one put it yesterday, complete with all the race-baiting dog-whistles we have come to expect from these people.
In addition, Pacifica is in a COMPLETE frenzy to get out the vote for Obama, too.
The last days schedules tell me:
Romney thinks he has N.C., In., Fl., Ohio, and Virginia for 266 electoral votes (he keeps all the McCain states) and Romney is trying to pick up the last 4 votes he needs in N.H. (4), Co. (9), or Ia. (6).
Obama is trying for a push to win Ohio and is trying to hold on to Wi., Nv (6), Ia., N.H. to stave off defeat.
Nevada is interesting that Obama feels he needs to shore up and Romney is skipping it.
They need to sweep the nursing homes, whup the black congregations and lay out walking around money.
Pacifica might help in Madison Wisconsin.