What do you think the internals mean? Indy number scares me as does the asian hispanic right track wrong track.
It’s been explained a million times on here but Rasmussen’s indie number fluctuates from double to single digits in just one polling cycle. It’s one of his less stable/reliable numbers. One time it went from +12 to +6 in one day (something like that). Maybe the expert poll analysts around here can tell us why this is happening????
The most interesting number in internals is that the Presidential approval index is -21 with Independents
People typically vote in line with approval numbers
The President’s approval numbers with Independents are: 44/52. In other words, 8% swing TOWARDS the Governor if you want to use these numbers as a proxy for the final vote
So, if the Governor wins Independents by 8, gets 90%+ of the Republican vote, then he should still win even if we have a 2008 turnout
The assumption I make here is that 10% of Registered Democrats vote for the Governor, but only 5% of Registered Republicans vote for the President. This is based on STRONG Disapprove number of 10% for Democrats of the President
The other assumption is that the 4% undecided “Other” vote breaks 3-1 for the Governor. This is the norm for a challenger
Here is the math:
D/R/I 2008 Turnout: 39/32/29
President’s Final Numbers: (39 * 0.9) + (32 * 0.05) (29 * 0.45) = 49.75
Governor’s Final Number: (32 * 0.95) + (39 * 0.1) +(29 * 0.55) = 50.25
Now keep in mind this is using the 2008 model!!! Not the 2010 model, not the 2004 model, not the Rasmussen 2012 turnout model, not the Gallup 2012 turnout model
My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker
Hope that helps!