I believe fag boy Silver predicted a GOP gain of about 35 seats in 2010. Way under reality.
I believe that he called MA for Brown in that special Senate election.
So, his record is mixed. You are quite correct: it didn’t take a genius to see McCain was toast in 2008. In fact, this goes back to 2006 when Ohio elected a Dem governor. Many of us said at that time that the next Prez was a D. And so it was. Sure Silver got that right. But so did a lot of us obscure watchers.
I agree with all here who say that 2012 for Romney sort of “feels” like 2008 for obama.
As one wisely put it, “who would we think is winning if there were no polls?” Clearly, Romney.
And...the polls buttress that possibility. According to the polls (not Silver of course...), Romney might win.
But if you look beyond them, it is clear: Romney has the momentum. He is doing better, and that should drive him across the finish line. He “might” actually win big....we sure hope so. That possibility is consistent with the data plus the feel. It might turn out to be 1980 again after all.....
Ah thank you, so he was off by 30 seats. And again I think the Brown election was kinda obvious but there were polls who had him losing, including Ras.
Nov-6 cannot come fast enough.