The most interesting number in internals is that the Presidential approval index is -21 with Independents
People typically vote in line with approval numbers
The President’s approval numbers with Independents are: 44/52. In other words, 8% swing TOWARDS the Governor if you want to use these numbers as a proxy for the final vote
So, if the Governor wins Independents by 8, gets 90%+ of the Republican vote, then he should still win even if we have a 2008 turnout
The assumption I make here is that 10% of Registered Democrats vote for the Governor, but only 5% of Registered Republicans vote for the President. This is based on STRONG Disapprove number of 10% for Democrats of the President
The other assumption is that the 4% undecided “Other” vote breaks 3-1 for the Governor. This is the norm for a challenger
Here is the math:
D/R/I 2008 Turnout: 39/32/29
President’s Final Numbers: (39 * 0.9) + (32 * 0.05) (29 * 0.45) = 49.75
Governor’s Final Number: (32 * 0.95) + (39 * 0.1) +(29 * 0.55) = 50.25
Now keep in mind this is using the 2008 model!!! Not the 2010 model, not the 2004 model, not the Rasmussen 2012 turnout model, not the Gallup 2012 turnout model
My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker
Hope that helps!
I would like to see the R share of Romney up over 92%.
Now.. THAT makes me smile! :-)
Many here will disagree but winning by a couple of points and just enough EV is fine with me. NO I do not want a repeat of 2000 but to turn out a sitting President is a mandate in itself. Landslide in this current demographic is impossible. Don’t forget Cali used to be a state that could go either way. I don’t see it going RED ever again in my life time.
Squeaker is fine as long as zerO is gone.