He sure stands to lose a LOT of credibility if he keeps his current stance and is proven wrong by a R+ turnout.
He’ll blame it on a turnout that nobody expected and blame voter honesty in polling as the culprit.
Kind of like the MU Poll for WI yesterday...+8 Obama but even the pollster used the caveat that turnout could completely change it...not mentioning the BS skew he used of course.
Or maybe he’s got the inside track on the upcoming jobs number that shows a big improvement?
Nate’s model may be good. But his source data of skewed polls, messes it all up. His baseball stuff is different, because you are basing on a lot of historical data (HR, RBI, etc).