Posted on 11/01/2012 8:16:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A poll out from the Marquette Law School gives President Obama a healthy lead over Mitt Romney:
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A new Marquette Law School Poll finds President Barack Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin. Five percent remain undecided or declined to state a preference, while 1 percent said that they would vote for a third party. Two weeks ago, before the second and third presidential debates, the poll found Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 48 percent.
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But...
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Turnout could play a big role in the election, according to Poll Director Charles Franklin. "Among all likely voters Obama leads by 8 points, but among those who both are likely to vote and also follow politics most closely, the margin is just two points, 48-46 percent. It works to Obama's advantage if the less interested voters turn out, while it improves Romney's chances if they stay home. This shows how get out the vote efforts of both parties can affect the results."
Both political parties have been contacting voters. Seventy-seven percent of likely voters said they had been contacted by phone, in person or by mail in the past week. Of those, 69 percent said they had been contacted by both parties, 10 percent only by Democrats and 18 percent only by Republicans.
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In talking with several GOP operatives in Wisconsin, I can report that the state has never seen anything like the Republican GOTV operation. Basically, the party has grafted a national GOP effort on the hugely successful Governor Walker GOTV operation that swept him to a much larger than expected recall victory last summer.A similar result is expected by these activists on election day.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
This poll doesn’t make sense.
This poll doesn’t make sense.
How can the same state that elected Scott Walker, and then Re-Elected him on a recall, vote for Obozo, the antithesis of everything Walker stands for?.............
This poll is laughably pure Bravo Sierra. No one will give it an ounce of credibility — not even the Obama crowd.
The polls for the Walker recall were close, then he won by seven points. I feel good about Wisconsin. But we’ll see.
Was 49-48 before the last two debates. That’s a pretty big swing there.
Internals on the MU poll are a mess.
Poll taker hedging due to “turnout”
Obama in Green Bay right now, Biden tomorrow and in Milwaukee Saturday...
+8 my butt :)
Running a poll is a fairly serious undertaking. You have to pay for data sources from which to cull call lists. you need some analytical talent to observe controls to make sure the sample is representative. Then you contract with call center personnel who make to the calls, or an out-bound marketing platform that can generate robo calls.
I recall the day when Wisconsin polls were typically run by St. Norbert’s College along with the AP (or UPI back when it existed.) Only in the past year have I noticed Marquette Law School being associated with the polls. I’m sure they have lots of sponsorship agreements and probably sell the detailed cross-tabs to campaigns and to the major media. I suspect it is not a money making venture for Marquette, it’s like having the naming rights to the local sports arena - it gets your name out there. Marquette Law School is definitely stepping up its PR footprint, hiring a former Milwaukee TV anchor and news reporter (Mike Gousha?) to be its spokesperson,and upping the publications, press presence, and promotion of the school. The polling is part of this stepping up.
That said, I have a hard time believing the time series of results they were generating this year in the Baldwin-Thompson race, and I wonder what that says about their read on on Obama-Romney.
Marquette. Ancient history: George Reedy, former press secretary for LBJ was a journalism professor there. They have deep RAT roots.
This one is such an irrelevant mess that you’d think it wouldn’t be released out of sheer embarrassment.
The only question missing appears to be - is the government hiding something at Area 51?
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