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1 posted on 11/01/2012 12:34:04 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

This was a singularly uninformative article.

One thing in it, however, that is flat out wrong - these pollsters are NOT “looking at the same information”. Every poll is drawing conclusions from a specific subset of the population constructed by different parameters.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 12:41:04 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Arthurio

1. A lot of people talk about a Romney victory.

2. Some even talk about a Romney landslide.

3. Some people talk of an Obama victory.

4. Nobody talks about an Obama landslide.

Not even the Left.

That’s rather telling.

Even the usual Leftist suspects are subdued, and make weak claims verging on transparent desperation.

I have asked myself if we’re only looking at the polls that look rosy for us. The above four points come to mind, and it seems all is right with the world.

We’ll see on Tuesday evening, rather early I believe.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 12:43:33 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Pres__ent Resident NBC NRD N3pmCs HCR / no birth C / no req docs / no 3pm calls / he can read)
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To: Arthurio

I fear we are going to wake up and find out that the excesses and license that early voting delivers us is the great toolfor expediting the take over of our Republic.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 12:46:19 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: Arthurio
The secret to random sample surveys is to keep them random. Once you get into weighting, or attempting to fit results to a turnout model, they are no longer random.

Then there's the fact that the actual response rates on polling are incredibly small ~ used to be they could call folks and 40% of the time the person who picked up the phone would go on to give answers to the pollster which were then used in the report on that poll. PEW reports that now 91% of all calls go unanswered, or result in a non-response.

These things end up not being random due to the vested interest thesis ~ to wit, certain groups will answer all polling calls simply to make sure their response is counted. This results in their attaining an unrepresentative importance in the polls. Such groups are mostly on the left.

A reasonable question would be about what pollsters are doing if they no longer have reliable random sample responses? And the answer would be they are engaging in AUGURY.

The likely cause of this drop in response rates is CALLER ID. People who get called now have a choice about answering the phone. They aren't answering pollster's calls!

5 posted on 11/01/2012 12:46:24 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Arthurio

If Romney wins, a WHOLE lot of the media, and a lot of pollsters, have got some serious splainin’ to do.

The polls considered “Most Accurate in 2008” clearly show Romney leading, or tied, in some cases above the margin of error. Those least accurate in 2008, are being used by an incredibly biased media to show Obama with big leads.

Instead of coming closer together, as one would expect at this late date, the numbers are diverging EVEN WIDER now.


8 posted on 11/01/2012 1:08:11 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Arthurio
zer0 will lose. The drive-by media knows zer0 will lose. The drive-by media game is to keep ratings up and sales. The drive-by media is dumb and dumber, but they aren't that dumb and dumber to think zer0 is going to pull out a win. The reasons for saying it is close is to keep everyone watching. Doubt it will go much past 9 PM, if that late, before zer0 has to concede. Unless the drive-bys try to pull a coup. The drive-bys did try a coup for gore.
9 posted on 11/01/2012 1:25:55 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: Arthurio

And the irony is this, only one poll matters, the one where we voters go to cast our ballot. The thing going in the back of my mind is this, how many people are like me? I have already voted and SURPRISE I voted for Romney. However in the past year I have politely hung up on each and every poll company caller.

I, at one time, worked in the technical section of Nielsen Media Research. Part of their training spoke to how hard they worked to choose those Nielsen Households for computing those famous ratings. If a chosen house refused the ‘honor’, maximum effort should be made to choose another home in the same area with the same demographics. What I do not know is whether these polling firms even try to do the same thing.


10 posted on 11/01/2012 1:33:09 PM PDT by SES1066 (Government is NOT the reason for my existence!)
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To: Arthurio

I go over to the Dem sites to read their polling analysis and wonder why is it so far apart from ours. Then I think about the polling samples and realize this polling stuff is not an exact science. Part of polling is much like wetting a finger and sticking it up in the wind to guess which way the wind blows. Polling involves some guess work.

I’m anxious to have this campaign over. Let’s fast forward to Tuesday night!!! (And hope FreeRepublic can handle the load.)


11 posted on 11/01/2012 1:43:21 PM PDT by BAW (We are the Resistance.)
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To: Arthurio
"The 2010 midterms overwhelmingly favored Republicans."

Giving the GOP tsunami a one-sentence mention in a long field of stream-of-unconciousness pablum tells you everything you need to know...

15 posted on 11/01/2012 2:14:37 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Arthurio
I want to point something else out -- if Bobo is winning, where's the talk about taking back the House?!?!

Besides Nancy Bogusi, no one can even advance that implausibility.

17 posted on 11/01/2012 2:44:39 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Arthurio

I’m worried about overconfidence. Some may not bother to go to the booths at all because they believe the polls show that Romney will win in a landslide and figure they don’t need to vote. I think polls should be outlawed 3 months before an election. The only purpose of polls is to discourage the other side from voting. We’re obsessed with polls. Just look at the breaking news sidebar. Half of it is nothing but polls.


30 posted on 11/01/2012 6:35:18 PM PDT by chessplayer
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