This was a singularly uninformative article.
One thing in it, however, that is flat out wrong - these pollsters are NOT “looking at the same information”. Every poll is drawing conclusions from a specific subset of the population constructed by different parameters.
1. A lot of people talk about a Romney victory.
2. Some even talk about a Romney landslide.
3. Some people talk of an Obama victory.
4. Nobody talks about an Obama landslide.
Not even the Left.
That’s rather telling.
Even the usual Leftist suspects are subdued, and make weak claims verging on transparent desperation.
I have asked myself if we’re only looking at the polls that look rosy for us. The above four points come to mind, and it seems all is right with the world.
We’ll see on Tuesday evening, rather early I believe.
I fear we are going to wake up and find out that the excesses and license that early voting delivers us is the great toolfor expediting the take over of our Republic.
Then there's the fact that the actual response rates on polling are incredibly small ~ used to be they could call folks and 40% of the time the person who picked up the phone would go on to give answers to the pollster which were then used in the report on that poll. PEW reports that now 91% of all calls go unanswered, or result in a non-response.
These things end up not being random due to the vested interest thesis ~ to wit, certain groups will answer all polling calls simply to make sure their response is counted. This results in their attaining an unrepresentative importance in the polls. Such groups are mostly on the left.
A reasonable question would be about what pollsters are doing if they no longer have reliable random sample responses? And the answer would be they are engaging in AUGURY.
The likely cause of this drop in response rates is CALLER ID. People who get called now have a choice about answering the phone. They aren't answering pollster's calls!
If Romney wins, a WHOLE lot of the media, and a lot of pollsters, have got some serious splainin’ to do.
The polls considered “Most Accurate in 2008” clearly show Romney leading, or tied, in some cases above the margin of error. Those least accurate in 2008, are being used by an incredibly biased media to show Obama with big leads.
Instead of coming closer together, as one would expect at this late date, the numbers are diverging EVEN WIDER now.
And the irony is this, only one poll matters, the one where we voters go to cast our ballot. The thing going in the back of my mind is this, how many people are like me? I have already voted and SURPRISE I voted for Romney. However in the past year I have politely hung up on each and every poll company caller.
I, at one time, worked in the technical section of Nielsen Media Research. Part of their training spoke to how hard they worked to choose those Nielsen Households for computing those famous ratings. If a chosen house refused the ‘honor’, maximum effort should be made to choose another home in the same area with the same demographics. What I do not know is whether these polling firms even try to do the same thing.
I go over to the Dem sites to read their polling analysis and wonder why is it so far apart from ours. Then I think about the polling samples and realize this polling stuff is not an exact science. Part of polling is much like wetting a finger and sticking it up in the wind to guess which way the wind blows. Polling involves some guess work.
I’m anxious to have this campaign over. Let’s fast forward to Tuesday night!!! (And hope FreeRepublic can handle the load.)
Giving the GOP tsunami a one-sentence mention in a long field of stream-of-unconciousness pablum tells you everything you need to know...
Besides Nancy Bogusi, no one can even advance that implausibility.
I’m worried about overconfidence. Some may not bother to go to the booths at all because they believe the polls show that Romney will win in a landslide and figure they don’t need to vote. I think polls should be outlawed 3 months before an election. The only purpose of polls is to discourage the other side from voting. We’re obsessed with polls. Just look at the breaking news sidebar. Half of it is nothing but polls.