Skip to comments.CNN: Battlegrounds: 'It's all about northern Virginia'
Posted on 11/01/2012 1:38:01 PM PDT by HokieMom
Editor's note: The 2012 presidential race is CNN Chief National Correspondent John King's seventh campaign. King is traveling through battleground states, where the election will be decided, to find the voters who will determine whether President Barack Obama gets a second term or if the country needs the change in direction that Mitt Romney represents.
Dumfries, Virginia (CNN) -- Retiree Robert Stevens says he often turns off the television when the attack ads appear, and he hangs up the phone when it's a presidential campaign calling.
"I want to make my own independent decision," Stevens said in a lunchtime conversation this week at Harold and Cathy's Dumfries Cafe. "I don't want anybody shoving stuff down my throat."
Four years ago, Stevens recalls being "fed up with Bush" and intrigued by the idea of being part of history. "I voted for Mr. Obama," he said. "It was something different for the country. Something that hadn't happened before -- a black president. I got caught up in that a little bit. But I think he is a disappointment. I don't see jobs coming back. The housing market is coming back a little bit. But unemployment is still way above where it should -- where he predicted it would be."
Yet this self-described independent isn't sold on Mitt Romney, either.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Why do you identify as an independent?
His choice could go a long way in deciding who wins Virginia and the White House.
Do the math: CNN's Electoral College calculator Then-Sen. Obama in 2008 ended a streak of 10 consecutive Republican presidential wins in Virginia, and he did it by winning big in the northern Virginia suburbs within an hour or so drive from the nation's capital.
In NOVA -- the local shorthand for northern Virginia -- the president had a 234,000-vote margin over GOP nominee John McCain. In the rest of the state, the two split the vote evenly.
"It's all about Northern Virginia," said Virginia-based GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "So many people have moved into Northern Virginia, particularly from the Northeast -- Democratic areas -- that they've turned a solid red state into a purple state."
Romney campaign reports massive fund-raising haul Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly is one of those transplants; he moved to the area from Boston years ago while working as a staffer on Capitol Hill. Now, his district sits in the suburbs that have the potential to ruin Mitt Romney's night even before the polls close in the Midwest and West.
"A lot of people are focused on Ohio, but I really think it is just as conceivable that, frankly, the epicenter of this outcome is going to be right here in Virginia," Connolly said in an interview at an Obama campaign office in the heart of Prince William County. "These 13 electoral votes are pretty critical."
I live in northern va (Great Falls). I am in McLean, Loudon, and Arlington all the time. There is a huge difference in the feel of things this year compared to 2008. From yard signs, to bumper stickers, to conversations, to the lack of college kids outside my office building in ballston looking to sign up minority voters.
Mitt wins Virginia. Early.
Earlier I reported that Obama had given up on South West Virginia because the ads from the Tennessee TVstations had stopped.
That ended Tuesday...... Obama ads are at least 1 to 2 Romney ads now.
Romney has very strong PAC support from energy PACS and the NRA. Obama has no such PAC ads
If you see it on CNN ... then chances are good that it is message from the DNC.
Absolutely. I’m in McLean and Tysons Corner all the time. Completely different this year than four years ago. Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers are EVERYWHERE. Easily 10:1 over BHO. Not only are the GOP candidates strong this time; everyone actually acts and works like they want to win!
I’ve done the poll watcher training and taking the day off Tuesday. Hopefully, that will help with GOTV and fraudulent Democrats in my precinct.
Thank you so much for volunteering!
I think Romney wins the state by 5 or 6 points. Bush won the state by 8 in 2004. I think blacks will come out in greater numbers for Obama than they did for Kerry (obviously). That stated, it won’t be enough to save him.
The MSM likes to describe NOVA as a liberal bastion. Well they don’t explain why VA has a majority Republican legislature, a Republican governor and most of the congressional seats are held by Republicans. VA is not exactly a swing state.
Before 2008 it was one of the Reddest states in the nation. The last Democrat who carried the Old Dominion State before Obama was Lyndon Baines Johnson. So its a stretch to say Obama can seduce Virginians again. They know who he is and they’ve turned their backs on him. Now that’s not something CNN wants to hear but its the truth.
heck romney is winning there by at least 7
what the rats need to do is look out for oregon and minnesota
The over and under is romney 325
I have also noticed that we are now running even or ahead in early voting. Our people are definitely more enthusiastic and motivated. And the mix is changing--more young people and minorities (primarily Asians) are voting for Mitt.
If we can just break even in NoVA, we will win VA.
So tired of these morons. What about the Constitution? Is it ALL about "jobs" or the "housing market"? What about this lawless cabal bypassing the Constitution repeatedly. So much for the "greatest generation". Probably a loyal AARP member.
If Bush won by 8, then Romney wins by at LEAST 6. And if WE are worried about Virginia, well, then we may as well accept that Democrats will win elections for the next 100 years.
Connolly barely won 2years ago
Here in this all residential area of Arlington, the early yard signs favored Romney back in the late summer. Then there was a rash of Obama signs just around the time of the DNC convention and they were far more numerous than the scattered Romney signs.
Now the Romney signs are showing up — which is a daring thing to do in Arlington — and now Obama has about 57% of the signs I’ve counted with Romney at 43%. That’s an amazing level of visible support for Romeny in this liberal, government employee bastion. Also, several homeowners have GIGANTIC Romney signs (one is about 5 feet by 7 feet). I love seeing them. No has a gigantic Obama sign. No one.
I live in western Fairfax County in NOVA, and while I’m encouraged by the lack of Obama signs this election compared to last, I’m still nervous because there are A LOT of liberal losers here. I hope the lack of Obama signs translates into a lack of desire for the dems to vote.
I don’t think Mitt even needs to break even in NOVA. If he get 45% of the vote he takes the state.
Funny you mention AARP.. I got so sick of their mass mailing of their liberal BS crap to me that I requested they stop via several emails, letters and finally phone calls. Even contacted the BBB about them and AARP told the BBB they had resolved the issue. I responded to the BBB and AARP with letters and emails from AARP well after they said it had been resolved showing they hadn’t.
After some heated arguments on the phone I finally spoke to one “supervisor” who agreed to help. She said this may sound macabre but if we put you in as deceased, the mailings should stop. I said “consider me dead” and the mailings stopped!
Loudoun County bump
Agree...i do think minorities will come out much more for Obama than for the billionaire
The demographics of Fairfax County have changed dramatically. 30% of the residents are foreign born. There are over 30,000 students in the K-12 ESOL program. And NoVA is dominated by government employees, school teachers, and lawyers. It will become more liberal, not less.
Although Reps have a large margin in the House of Delegates, the Senate is split 20-20. NoVA is sending most of Dems to the Genral Assembly and it is the area of the state that is increasing the fastest in terms of population. Two out of the three members of Congress from NoVA are Dems.
VA is really a purple state and I see it going blue in a decade. Demography is destiny.
What do people think about Hispanic registrations up 20 percent from 2008?
What an idiot. It is all about western VA and coal country. Polls have traditionally done a better job of sampling in urban/suburban areas than rural areas.
The rural areas of VA, particularly the coal areas, will come out in much heavier numbers than in 2008. That will be what determines the election in VA, WI, OH and maybe even PA and MI.
Thanks. I’m glad I’m not misremembering 2008. I thought there were A LOT more yard signs then AND every single car seemed to have an Obama sticker. Now it seems in Arlington/Alex/Fairfax it’s maybe 1 out of every 15 cars. I was over in Leesburg the other day...seemed solid Romney. Lots of Romney signs & no Obama signs. Loudon is crucial to canceling out Fairfax.
But I noticed Romney has a few rallys in Roanoke and Richmond burbs this weekend. So I think their polls must be showing a tight race here or they would spend time elsewhere last campaign weekend.
I love the Romney billboards! The YRs have really grown in Arlington and the Leadership Institute appears flush with young conservatives. I hope the trend continues.
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Being from Reston I see very few “new” Obama bumper stickers —most are the ‘08 ones....not too many Romney stickers but then, who wants their cars keyed??
I think there is a lot of stealth support for Romney in NOVA —let’s just hope everyone shows up Tuesday to vote!
The VA “Rule of Thumb” for the GOP has always been to be competitive @ 50/50 in NOVA, then the rest of the state will sweep in our candidate.
NOVA is now far more lib than it was in the 1990s, not that long ago. It’s certainly a reflection of the growth of government (and the contractors that feed off govt).
I agree with you - The feel is very different than 2008. The people who need MSM permission to even question Obama frustrate me.
I too have taken the training and am going to be a poll watcher on Tuesday, God willing. I’ll be interested to see how many people show up without a picture ID.
Can you remember— didn’t Bob McDonnell carry Fairfax County by a whisker?
Robert F. “Bob” McDonnell 138,655 50.73%
R. Creigh Deeds 134,189 49.10%
Write In 438 0.16%
Yep, looks like a whisker to moi!
Gov. Romney coming to George Mason University in Fairfax on Monday. Taking it deep into the blue zone!
Note that while McDonnell carried Fairfax, neither Bolling nor Cuccinelli did. Both got high 40s, but not majority.
VA elections are won and lost in the Central part of the state. Northern VA and the area around Richmond is the liberal part of the state, the Western part of the state, though less populated, is probably one of the most conservative areas in the entire country. (dems USED to actually get some votes there, but not lately)
The candidate that dominates the central part of the state will win the race. If it's close in the central part of the state, it will be a long election night, subject to fraud out of certain precincts in Northern VA and Richmond). All of this is generally speaking of course. There's always anomalies.
True, yet McDonnell’s victory shows it can be done!
Hey, everyone! After volunteering on Election Day, come join us at the victory party at GMU’s Mason Inn in Fairfax!