U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008 (Great News for Romney)

Gallup ^ | 10/30/2012 | Jeffrey M. Jones

[mojito]

Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a "10" on a 10-point scale, than in 2004 and 2008, two higher-turnout elections. However, the 2012 figures are higher than in 1996 and 2000, two lower-turnout elections.

[mojito]

Almost every poll I've seen shows that Repubs enjoy a big enthusiasm advantage.

Which means that Romney voters turn out; 0 voters and "low information" undecideds don't.

Think Chik-fil-A. It might be that simple.

[mojito]

And all those polls using 2008 as a turn-out model are in for a big surprise.

[scbison]

My prediction is 53% for Romney, 46% for Obama and 1% Other.

[goldstategop]

I agree with you - I think it’ll be somewhere around that figure.

And voter turnout this year is less than the last two elections. If Gallup is right, this blows all the polls that have been posted since late October out of the water - they assume a 2008 high intensity turnout.

I think the Democrats and the MSM will be in for a big surprise on Tuesday night!

[scbison]

I heard on Hannity today that there is a rally tomorrow night in Westchster OH(I think) for Romney and they expect 50K per bill cunningham. When Dems see that, they may know it is over.

[StAnDeliver]

Note a couple of things from this July post:

• The Incumbent Rule has played out nearly perfectly in the intervening 4 months
• There is going to be a PV contraction on a national scale
• Oh, and yeah, Romney wins

"First of all, no less than Bobo's cadre have said out loud that they're playing from Kerry's map, knowing full well '08 was a Perfect Storm. Secondly, -8M/54M ain't happening when the loser in the past two elections pulled at least 59M. That's the floor. Thirdly, the GOP has won a recent election while losing the popular vote.

Now here's what really is: Every poll shows about 6-8% Undecided, and of that group no less than 80% (Panagakis, Bowers, et al) will break for Mittens. It's the Incumbent Rule. It's history. Elections featuring an incumbent are a referendum on the incumbent, and to fire him if the challenger is acceptable.

Therefore if this is ABC's final poll on Election Day (even as miserably skewed as it is), and there are 6% Undecided, Mittens wins 51.8% - 48.2%.

Which sounds about right, actually.

I do believe the total popular vote is going to contract this year 2-3%. Some Obama voters are not going to vote this year. Some McCain voters are not going to vote this year. But more importantly, some voters who did not vote in '08 are going to vote for Mittens, and yes, some Obama voters are going to outright vote Mittens. And obviously there are a couple of Freepers switching from McCain to vote Obama this time around, but whatever...

2012 (projected from ABC poll):
R [R] 65,268,000
O [D] 60,732,000
Total: 126,000,000

2008:
M [R] 59,950,323
O [D] 69,499,428
Total: 129,449,751

2004:
B [R] 62,040,610
K [D] 59,028,439
Total: 121,069,049

2000:
B [R] 49,916,294
G [D] 50,460,110
Total: 100,376,404

56 posted on 07/10/2012 9:09:52 AM PDT by StAnDeliver

[Fledermaus]

BS, I think the GOP turnout will be hugh and series! lol

[Professional]

I suspect over the next few days, we’re going to see some interesting, humorous signs of frustration, capitulation from the Dems. Fun to watch their proverbial heads explode.

Wouldn’t doubt if some polling firms suddenly make announcements to cover their tracks. The media too may have to do something to gain at least some credibility.

Right now, the pollsters and media are trying to portray the elections soooooo close, that just one voter could make the difference! Oh, the guilt, the shame, you MUST VOTE!!!

[StAnDeliver]

Forget the coup de grace. The trend is your friend:

2010:
House [D] 35,377,756 (46.2%)
House [R] 41,128,504 (53.8%)
Total: 76,506,260

2008:
House [D] 65,241,408 (55.6%)
House [R] 52,184,380 (44.4%)
Total: 117,425,788

2006:
House [D] 42,255,280 (54.2%)
House [R] 35,657,353 (45.8%)
Total: 77,912,633

[Lancey Howard]

I’m calling horse manure on Gallup.

Sure, there will be a lot of ‘will-never-vote-Republican’ assclowns who supported Ubama last time around who will have something more important to do this year - - a TV show, for example - - but the people who want to flush Ubama down the toilet like yesterday’s floating turd will crawl over broken glass to push the handle on that toilet.

I predict a landslide against Ubama with the biggest turnout in history.

[cotton1706]

These turnout figures are meaningless anyway because of all the voter registration drives that just get people on the listst that don’t show up to vote. That’s why only likely voter polls are semi-accurate.

[ryan71]

“I predict a landslide against Ubama with the biggest turnout in history.”

I agree and I've been saying for a year that certain Obama voters are going to stay home. They did their deed.

[mojito]

I think you're misunderstanding what this is saying. Gallup is saying that they're not seeing nearly as much enthusiasm to vote, regardless of party or candidate, amongst the totality of all the people they contact.

Now, as you say, lots and lots of other polls and surveys, including ones by Gallup, show lots and lots of enthusiasm to vote amongst those who are voting for Romney and against 0bama. But remember, these people are only a subset of the entire potential electorate.

So what do you think is likely to happen on election day when those who are highly motivated DO go to the polls, and the rest sit on their hands?

Gallup is saying exactly what you're saying: 0bamatrouble.

[lwd]

The sportsbooks I use have a Romney win paying +240, which is a good bet in my estimate for something that under the most glume scenario is currently considered a dead heat or tie.

[AFPhys]

Rush stated that poor -bama suffered a turnout for his OH speech today of 2800 while 15,000 were expected.

[AFPhys]

Pretty nice analysis of the numbers given you did it in July.

I believe the pop vote will end up very near 44%0, 53%R, but I first stated that here about two weeks ago after an analysis of current polls and history.

I consider that the favorable/unfavorable has definitely now locked this analysis in: \\
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_romney_favorable_unfavorable.html