[Anti-Hillary]

Did you read the article. They said they would never go if the internals did not warrant it. Plenty of polls show it is close. And, BTW, do you remember PA in 2010??? It was a BLOWOUT for the Pubbies! Tell me what has changed since 2010???

[1035rep]

Romney also doing well in Oregon. He’s only down 3 in the latest poll and he hasn’t even been there.

[FredZarguna]

Couple things make Presidential years different. The (nominal) Dem registration edge is +13. Among active registrants it's +12. PA Republicans do very well in mid-term years because Dems are lazy. In Presidential years they turn out.

One complicating factor (besides assessing the LV model, which is hard everywhere) is that PA is a closed primary state, so the registration edge is not as definitive among middle-of-the-roaders, who might have changed party affiliation but not changed official party registration, as it is in states with open primaries.

[Theodore R.]

As I recall, we did not know that Toomey had won in PA in 2010 until Wednesday, but I don’t recall the margin. Union people are so strong in PA.

[JediJones]

And, BTW, do you remember PA in 2010??? It was a BLOWOUT for the Pubbies! Tell me what has changed since 2010???

The Toomey Senate race wasn't a blowout. He won by 1-2 points. And considering 2010 was a blowout overall, it shows PA was closer than the average on the key national statewide race. It's hard to imagine Toomey could've won in a presidential year which will turn out more of the stupid vote to make up for 1-2 points. The Obama sycophants didn't care to vote in 2010, but they'll be out this year.