The registration edge here is D+13. Among active registrations, it’s D+12 (considered active by PA Dept of State as of 10/15/2012.) I think a realistic model for election day is D+8 or D+9. If the polls are anywhere near correct, it’s going to be close.
Another potential factor is D’s voting R.
Reagan pulled a huge chunk of votes from registered D’s, blowing away the projections.
There is a significant Jewish vote in PA, and a huge Catholic vote, which probably won’t be voting as D as they used to be. There are bitter clinger D’s, and coal miner D’s, and unemployed long time D’s.
There has been been a lot of talk about relative D or R strength in registering, early voting, absentee and enthusiasm.
There has been a lot of talk about how much independents are leaning R or D.
But I have not heard much from the number crunchers (Rove and such), of how many registered D’s will cross vote.
If anyone could stampede some cross voting, it’s this once-in-a-hundred-year-flood disaster of a President.
Obama Must Be Defeated!