Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

On the ground game in Wisconsin (why Romney will win)
6/1/2012 | barryobi

Posted on 11/01/2012 4:11:47 PM PDT by barryobi

Wisconsin is going to be VERY close. Within a point either way, no matter what the polls say. Results for recent elections are these:

2000 POTUS 2.7 million voted Gore won by 5,000 votes

2004 POTUS 2.9 million voted Kerry won by 11,000 votes

2008 POTUS 2.9 million voted Obama won by 414,000 votes

2012 Walker recall 2.5 million voted Walker won by 171,00 0 votes

So as you can see, Dems have won last three POTUS elections, but Walker won the 2010 Governor election and 2012 June 5, recall election. The untold story of the recall war is that the Wisconsin Republican Party built the MOST sophisticated and effective GOTV effort of any state in the union. The Rats threw everything at the Walker recall, they spent millions on ads, flew in union GOTV thugs, and had every public union employee on the state 100% invested in throwing Walker out. The ystill got crushed 53-46. This bodes very well for this November.

Another indication of how close the state is can be demonstrated by who is coming here in the last five days. In 2008, Obama spent the last day of the campaign in Va, NC, and Fl. This year on Nov. 5th Obama will be in Columbus Oh, Madison Wi, and Des Moines Ia. Springsteen and JayZ and Katy Perry will be joining Obama the last week of the campaign. To me this demonstrates that the youth vote is not engaged and Obama is desperate to get the college kids to the polls in all three states. Obama will also be here today (Green Bay) and Saturday (Milwaukee). Romney will be here tomorrow (Milwaukee), and Ryan has obviously been here a lot.

Back to the numbers. In 2008 Obama won Paul Ryan's First Congressional District by 14,000 votes. Paul Ryan won his district by 105,000 votes or a net difference of about 120,000 votes between Obama's POTUS margin and Ryan's Congressional margin. That is 25% of Obama's margin, so you can expect Ryan to really help the Ryan/Romney ticket run up some numbers in his Congressional District.

The turnout in 2004 and 2008 was 2.9 million voters, so even though the minority community and college kids were hugely engaged, the number of total voters did not increase. The only reason I can think that this would be true was the Republican leaning independents stayed home. I believe this will not be the case this year, the motivation is all on the Republican side. This explains why Obama is headed to Milwaukee and Madison on the last three days of the campaign.

In 2008, 617,000 absentee ballots were cast, or one out of five votes. With two days left (only one after today), only 430,000 absentee ballots have been requested , and 256,000 of those cast at clerks offices so far. If most of the advantage in absentee ballots goes to the democrats, 100,000 less absentee ballots this year vs. 2008 is a good sign for the Republicans. In addition, the number of ballots returned is more more favorable to republicans than in 2008.

Working in downtown Milwaukee, I can only go by the evidence I see with my own eyes. Yesterday I posted a picture on one of the Obama campaign offices nearby. For two weeks, I have driven by probably a dozen times and never seen more than two people in the office. Today I drove down Wisconsin Ave in downtown Milwaukee and passed a huge Obama campaign office. It had three people inside . I see VERY few Obama Biden signs on lawns anywhere, the only spot they are common are in their campaign offices.

So the bottom line is I think this race will look like 2000 or 2008, with a margin of less than 50,000 votes one way or the other. This year, with Paul Ryan on the ticket, I give our side the advantage.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: obama; ryan; vanity
img src=<"http://s1210.beta.photobucket.com/user/wiscman/media/ObamaWisav.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0">
1 posted on 11/01/2012 4:11:56 PM PDT by barryobi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: barryobi

Hopefully, the early results from the East Coast will demoralize the Democrats from voting.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 4:16:46 PM PDT by Shadow44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: barryobi

I think the Unions were more motivated to dump Walker than they will be to show up for Obama. Just sayin


3 posted on 11/01/2012 4:18:04 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Nate Silver is Obama's Love Monkey)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: barryobi

The State wakes up while Madison, San Francisco Midwest, continues down that long dark road to hell.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 4:18:49 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (The Scriptures clearly tell us we are in the last days, the end times. Christ is the only answer!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: barryobi

I’m about a hour north of Madistan.
Zero will be there Monday.
I hope the wind is from the north to blow the stench back into Illinois.


5 posted on 11/01/2012 4:22:03 PM PDT by Nonsense Unlimited
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tuxedo

I agree. “Dear Leader” did not show up in Wisconsin to help the unions get rid of Walker. The unions lost big and have neither the motivation or the money to assist the Kenyan marxist. We should not underestimate Ryan’s influence as a native son. I think Wisconsin’s in the bag for Romney!


6 posted on 11/01/2012 5:01:07 PM PDT by WMarshal (Free citizen, never a subject or a civilian)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Tuxedo

“I think the Unions were more motivated to dump Walker than they will be to show up for Obama. Just sayin”

I work in Madison, and all I can say to that is “yup!”


7 posted on 11/01/2012 5:02:23 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Tuxedo

“I think the Unions were more motivated to dump Walker than they will be to show up for Obama. Just sayin”

I work in Madison, and all I can say to that is “yup!”


8 posted on 11/01/2012 5:02:29 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Tuxedo

I agree. “Dear Leader” did not show up in Wisconsin to help the unions get rid of Walker. The unions lost big and have neither the motivation or the money to assist the Kenyan marxist. We should not underestimate Ryan’s influence as a native son. I think Wisconsin’s in the bag for Romney!


9 posted on 11/01/2012 8:05:34 PM PDT by WMarshal (Free citizen, never a subject or a civilian)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson