Parties Wonder Which Side's Polls Reflect Reality

Nationaljournal ^

[chessplayer]

Divergent results spark apprehension about who gets the new normal, and who will be proven seriously wrong.

A few days ago, I sat down with Rob Jesmer, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Jesmer is usually tight-fisted about his polling; he doesn't share it with members of the media when the numbers are good for his candidates, which avoids the inevitably uncomfortable dilemma when the numbers are bad for his candidates. But he wanted to open his books, if only for a peek, to demonstrate a phenomenon happening across the political spectrum these days: His polls look nothing like polls Democrats are conducting.

It's a constant refrain from both sides these days. The two parties, the outside groups that are playing such a big role this year, and even some candidates themselves are so dubious about their own numbers that they are employing two pollsters for one race, using one to double-check the other. What flummoxes them even more is that their own party's pollsters are getting similar results, while the other side is offering a completely different take.

The day after Election Day, somebody's pollsters are going to be proven seriously wrong.

Deep down, both parties secretly worry it's their side that is missing the boat.

[chessplayer]

I'm worried about overconfidence. Some may not bother to go to the booths at all because they believe the polls show that Romney will win in a landslide and figure they don't need to vote. I think polls should be outlawed 3 months before an election. The only purpose of polls is to discourage the other side from voting.

[Rokurota]

Honestly, I think one party knows its polls are full of it. There’s no wondering going on at all.

[Junior_G]

I was very confident until recently. Now I’m back to thinking it’ll be an Obama victory...the American electorate is just too stupid to live. Then again, I live in the Seattle area and am cursed with a social circle that consists almost entirely of anti-American leftist friends and coworkers. Maybe it’s distorted my view of the voting public...I hope that’s the case.

[AndyTheBear]

One of the parties looks at the Bill of Rights and sees a right to keep and bear arms. The other looks at the Bill of Rights and sees a right to government funded abortions.

To see which party is reality based, and which is full of crap, I propose reading the Bill of Rights and determining which view is actually supported there, and which is projection.

Seriously folks, clouding your view of reality with your own bias is something conservatives can slip into. But it is something that the leftwing actually requires as a foundation of its philosophy.

[ConservativeInPA]

Junior_g,
Hold your head high. Be firm in your convictions. Act like a winner. I saw Romney on TV today at a campaign rally. He looked fresh, excited and full of energy. He was positive. He looked like a winner. The next time you see Obama, ask yourself if he even looks like he wants to be there.

People pick up on this. You can see it on any Saturday watching football. Romney has the ability and he has been scoring touchdowns while campaigning. He doesn't spike to the ball. He doesn't do an end zone dance. He just hands the ball to the ref. The other team knows what is going on, and they are losing confidence. Their heads are held low. They just want the game to end. Romney acts like he has been to the end zone before. The other team knows it and they are scared shitless.

[SW6906]

Spot on.

Also look where each candidate is campaigning and how they are campaigning. One is defending and using rhetoric trying to shore up his base, the other is branching out into the other candidate's previously-thought-safe territory and campaigning positive and like a winner.

[TheCause]

Hear! Hear!