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We're About To Get One Of The Most Important Jobs Reports In History (Before The Election)
TBI ^ | 11-2-2012 | Matthew Boesler

Posted on 11/02/2012 4:41:44 AM PDT by blam

We're About To Get One Of The Most Important Jobs Reports In History — Here's What You Need To Know

Matthew Boesler
Nov. 2, 2012, 4:10 AM

Today's nonfarm payrolls data – out at 8:30 AM ET in the U.S. – is the final jobs report before the presidential election on November 6.

Consensus estimates are for 125k new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent a month ago.

The election is already a huge source of uncertainty for fragile markets at the moment, and a bad jobs number could really set the tone for stocks ahead of the election.

Societe Generale strategist Vincent Chaigneau writes in a note to clients that "weak NFP and the US elections will be a challenge for the S&P, which is trading some 0.8% above key support levels (1400 area)...our economists look for a soft NFP, which would keep US equities shaky into the elections."

That economist is Michala Marcussen, who says she expects the unemployment rate to drop, but due to changes in the participation rate:

The US October employment report will be released as planned on Friday despite the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy. Our forecast is for a 90K gain on payrolls (below the 120K of consensus). At the same time, we look for the unemployment rate to decline to 7.7% - its lowest level since December 2008. The better trend on both Japanese and US unemployment rates, however, masks declining participation rates.

Taking a snapshot across the G4, generally low employment rates at first glance suggest historically high spare capacity on labour markets. Evidence suggests, however, that structural unemployment rates are trending higher, and notably on the European periphery, adding an additional headwind on these already hard hit economies.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: election; employment; jobs; recession

1 posted on 11/02/2012 4:41:51 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

110,000 new jobs will be reported and the unemployment rate will come in at 6.5%


2 posted on 11/02/2012 4:48:29 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: blam
Europe's Manufacturing Downturn Is Only Getting Worse

"The decline of the Spanish, Italian, and German manufacturing sectors accelerated in October. "

3 posted on 11/02/2012 4:48:33 AM PDT by blam
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To: Gay State Conservative

I’m guessing an unemployment rate of 2.1%.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 4:50:52 AM PDT by Peter W. Kessler (Dirt is for racing... asphalt is for getting there.)
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To: blam

I can’t imagine these numbers won’t be doctored by Frankenstein himself before they are released... : /


5 posted on 11/02/2012 4:51:36 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: blam

I can’t imagine these numbers won’t be doctored by Frankenstein himself before they are released... : /


6 posted on 11/02/2012 4:51:36 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: Gay State Conservative

310,000 new jobs will be reported and the unemployment rate will come in at 6.5% ,, to be revised 11/8/2012 to 64,000 and 7.9%


7 posted on 11/02/2012 4:51:48 AM PDT by Neidermeyer
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To: blam
NY will join CA in forgetting to report their unemployment figures.

7.5% it shall be.

Happy days are here again.

8 posted on 11/02/2012 4:52:02 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: blam
I predict the headline will be:

"October Hiring Increased Due To Anticipation Of A Defeated Obama Presidency"


9 posted on 11/02/2012 4:54:06 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: blam

Totally irrelevant. People are going to vote on the basis of what they see in their own lives, not some BS numbers released by Washington.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 4:55:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus (Omnia relinquit servare Rempublicam)
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To: blam

Too little, too late.

regardless of the numbers, the report will have little or no effect. The die is already cast


11 posted on 11/02/2012 4:56:17 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: Gay State Conservative

If you think this report will be anything but decidedly good you are kidding yourself. There is no way this is a bad report or even a ho-hum report.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 4:58:52 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: blam
I don't know what to tell you people.

Even I know these numbers are cooked.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 4:59:18 AM PDT by RGSpincich
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To: Peter W. Kessler

Yeah, 2.1% unemployment rate and about 857,000,000 (this is world wide because Obama’s policies are far reaching) new jobs created, all full time and paying over $65,000 annually +benefits (free car, gasoline, family healthcare, fully funded 401k, etc)


14 posted on 11/02/2012 4:59:36 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Agreed.

If the numbers were bad, Sandy gave them an excuse not to release them at all.

They will be cooked like never before. Wouldn’t surprise me if it shows jobs being created at a rate even better than Reagan’s best month.


15 posted on 11/02/2012 5:00:44 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: blam
Consensus estimates are for 125k new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent a month ago.

Oh please, that pattern is set. There will be 175k+ new jobs, Unemployment rate will DROP, only to be revised next month to reflect reality.

16 posted on 11/02/2012 5:08:27 AM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: blam
Consensus estimates are for 125k new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent a month ago.

Naaw, more like 1,250,000 new jobs and a 5.2 unemployment rate with the caveat that all numbers are subject to adjustment Nov. 9 ..............

17 posted on 11/02/2012 5:09:20 AM PDT by varon (Get ready for the ride of your lifetime)
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To: Paradox

they will drop the rate to 7.4% based on ADP of 150K and pixie dust


18 posted on 11/02/2012 5:31:39 AM PDT by Homer1
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To: Homer1

Rate UP to 7.9%
New jobs 179,000
U6 = 14.6%


19 posted on 11/02/2012 5:35:22 AM PDT by GRRRRR (He'll NEVER be my President, FUBO! Treason is the Reason! Impeach the Kenyan)
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To: Homer1

I wonder what the unemployment rate will be when Romney is elected...11.8%??? And then claim that Romney’s policies caused a rise in unemployment from 7.7 to 11.8%


20 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:16 AM PDT by Axelsrd
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To: GRRRRR
Rick Santelli was in rare form calling these numbers BS while Steve LIESman and the other sycophants sat there open mouthed. It was a thing of beauty.
21 posted on 11/02/2012 5:48:32 AM PDT by shove_it ( The 0bama regime are the people Orwell and Rand warned us about.)
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To: GRRRRR

CORRECTION...

ONLY 171,000 jobs added...my bad eyes.

Still pathetic and EPIC FAIL on the O’Bomma Admin.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 6:07:07 AM PDT by GRRRRR (He'll NEVER be my President, FUBO! Treason is the Reason! Impeach the Kenyan)
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