Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: FRI 11/02: R:48 O:48 Obama -11%: 4 Days to go!!
Posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:02 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This was somewhat expected. The race had tightened to 2 points in the post Sandy days. This sample is fully post Sandy
PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT NOTE: Do keep in mind that some of this is just statistical noise. NHWinGut will publish the actual numbers today, but it still effectively a 1 point race, but rounding up and down makes the difference
Here are the actual numbers after leaners are added:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 46 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 49 but is rounded DOWN to 48. It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 48.4
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 44 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 47 but is rounded UP to 48, It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 47.6
Also, the Rally Around the Flag effect, has been in place. People feel more charitable towards the President in a moment of crisis
As mentioned above, in today's poll the Governor actually leads the raw data by 1 but when rounding is done, he gets into a tie.
This shows that Sandy is changing the minds (maybe) of the few last stragglers
Some positive news for conservatives:
1. The President still did not go above 47 in his raw data and 48 with leaners thrown in
2. Presidential approval is stalled at 50
3. Republican enthusiasm remains high
Internal Data (NOT found in link above)
Gov leads with Indies by 3
Gov is behind with women by 7
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/55
Right Track/Wrong Track (Hispanics/Asians): 47/44
Commentary by Scott:
Romney has three days left to make Benghazi an issue.
I think the poll is accurate. But I don’t think it changes anything. The”the Rally Around the Flag effect” of Sandy has changed the answers of some poll responders. But I don’t see those people as ever really going to the polls on Tuesday anyway.
Axelrod put the arm on Rasmussen.
If Romney can win the Badger State [Wisconsin] after losing Ohio, he would still need to win Colorado and either Iowa or Nevada to win the election.
He's leaving out New Hampshire as a way for Romney to win. Romney can win Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire to get to 271. Iowa or Nevada can be substituted for New Hampshire. That also seems to me to be Romney's easiest path to victory. That would mean winning 5 of the 8 remaining swing states on Scott's list (CO, WI, NH, VA and FL) and losing OH, IA and NV.
Praying.... Praying ...... Praying.......
Polls aside, it is just unbelievable that a now four-year proven corrupt, lying, incompetent, failure can be attracting nearly one half of the nation’s voters. The nation is possibly beyond the point of repair and the cause may be given another four years.
I’ll be glad when this is over. Seems like the country has been on hold for four years.
D+3 sample. FYI.
This late trend is NOT our friend! :(
We all know Obama gets at least 45% of the vote no matter what. He could be Karl Marx and he would still get that 45%.
He still can’t get to 50% and I don’t expect that to happen.
Has half of the country lost their minds? I dont think so..Romney will win!
I think the tightening of the polls is the residual effect of Romney going “moderate” in the last debate, putting in the performance we were all afraid he would in all the debates. Enough time has passed that it’s starting to get hard for people to remember how he did in the first debate. He peaked too early. It’s not good that Obama has regained the momentum going into the weekend before the election.
The debates were still the best exposure Romney were got. The election will be two weeks after the last debate. Romney was doing his worst during the couple weeks between the conventions and the first debate. His campaign advertising and messaging has always been lousy. And without direct, unfiltered exposure of Romney himself, the media defines him the way Obama wants him to be defined.
If there were 3 weeks between the last debate and the election instead of 2, it’d be all over for Romney. As it is now, it’s a true coin toss. He’s losing ground thanks to being forced to rely again on his campaign’s weak, confused, unfocused advertising to get his message across.
Thee is an awful lot of BroncoBama buyers remorse out there, and most of them do not want to publicly admit it. My pathetic libtard MIL is prime example. They will sit it out.
As a side note Scott better pray this is as close as he says it is or he'll be ignored next time around.
Seems to me that he and republicans have had plenty of time to make Lybya an issue and have failed. His numbers have been dropping, from 4+ to now tied. Play with the numbers all you want, but in the end, the give me mine for free bunch are going to see that if he is gone, maybe their free ride is also and they will vote. If we truly want to be free and want rid of this clown, then people better show up at the polls and get rid of him. If people just lag around and don’t vote him out, then America is done. Just read an article that in 2014 when you do your taxes, you will have to fill out a new form telling the government who your insurance company is or else. It’s coming folks. Total socialism. America as founded is at the edge. Nov 6th decides if it goes over.
And THAT is what is frightening!!!!!
Okay, this is the first poll that really, really concerns me.
That said, I still think we win with turnout.
But, forget 330 EV.
I just hope we can snag 300 if we are lucky, more likely less.
This, after all, will be a nail biter. Romney has stalled out and Obama voters won’t show up in numbers he needs, so Romney wins the popular vote.
The states that count stubbornly lean Obama and that is scary. There had been no movement for Romney in days there.
Either way this goes, half of Americans are Godless Marxist supporting zombies after generations of public education. Very bad future with or without Romney.
So a storm comes to punish these decadent libtards and what do we get? 4 more years of godless marxism!
I understand what you mean but the buck ultimately stops at the candidate. Either Romney or Obama will lose and the defeat will be theirs. This is Romney’s to lose.
Not much room for any October surprise. Doesn’t have to be something that’s true. I mean, look what Dan Rather tried to pull. People here did very good debunking that within minutes. There are some lies that could be told A LA Harry Reid that could take days to debunk.
Then you got to make room for voter fraud. Obama didn’t bypass Congress to give Amnesty for nothing.
If Somalis here under six months vote in the general election (and many of them do - I’ve seen it) imagine how all those illegals could change things.
We still got a lot of work ahead of us - if we want to go into next week with any certainty.
Strictly in political terms...
God or Satan gave this storm to Obammie the Commie to use to his advantage.
Romney was also given Benghazi to use.
Will the GOP use what is available, or will they play the smiley, hands-across-the-aisle game that gets us all slaughtered?
And keep in mind, it is immoral and unethical to use a natural disaster for your political gain.
It is your DUTY to point out the treasonous acts of a sitting president who allowed Americans to be murdered on American soil for his own political gain.
Very unfortunate that there seem to be polls saying Obama would be better on foreign policy, even while they say Romney would be better on the economy. That shows that the media covering up Ben Ghazi is working. And it also shows that a lot of the swing voters make up their minds based on the debates. Romney played defense instead of offense in the final foreign policy debate and this lost ground is a direct result of it. It's a small amount of ground that's been lost, but it's a close enough election that it matters.
“D+3 sample. FYI.”
Is this from Rass? I thought he was using a Rep +1 model.
Kuhner says there is a massive effort to offset the Romney vote in suburban/rural areas by racking up fraudulent votes for Obama in the major cities.
Don't know what to make of this but you would think that somebody would be able to document this if it was happening.
The good: Obama still can't get reach 50%.
The ugly: where is Helen Thomas?
The bottom line is that we (GOP) have done almost all we can in terms of getting out the vote. Obama will have to suspend the laws of political gravity given the state of the economy, unemployment, and our national debt and deficit. When he took office 32 million were on food stamps, today it is 47 million. If Obama is reelected, it means the country has already reached a tipping point demographically and the Dems will be the permanent majority party. And the country is finished. I hope we have not reached that point yet. We will see in four days.
Well I for one cannot wait to vote on Tuesday! Then to cheer our new president on Wednesday. Is it racist to say that BO is toast?
Does anyone know the the Rasmussen what swing state poll is?
Chalk that up to a media that colludes with socialist/communist politicians and our government-run education system successfully brainwashing the people to demand socialism and dumbing down the citizenry so that they are incapable of critical analysis and how it is applied to discovering truth.
From what I understand, Rasmussen is using a D+3 model, but is his enthusiasm poll is projecting a R+1 so far.
Somalis in my city have been voting in every election. Some in the US for less than 6 months voted for Gore. Even more of them vote now plus you have the illegal latinos (especially this year after Obama’s amnesty).
Add 3% - 6% to Obama’s side then try to beat that and you got voter fraud covered - and hope for no October surprise (doesn’t have to be a true story - just a good enough so that it cannot be debunked until tuesday night)
Cover that and we have a chance.
“From what I understand, Rasmussen is using a D+3 model, but is his enthusiasm poll is projecting a R+1 so far.”
I hope that is correct, because all that is left now is the GOTV efforts.
The time for changing people’s minds by campaigning in the swing states is past, the final 3 days are for show.
It all comes down to getting the most people to the polls, and those organizational efforts were put in place and finalized weeks ago.
We will see who has the best ground game during these last 4 days.
Welcome to FreeRepublic
Remember the Wisconsin recall was tight according Rass....
Was that 50% rounded up? Romney is at 48.4% today. It it was 48.5% he would be at 49. Obama is at 47.6% rounded up to 48. I don’t think we should live and die each day with the polls. The most accurate poll will be on election day. We are more motivated and energized. I have already voted.
Yeah what you said and one of the October surprises = Governor Christie.
From a n00bie!!
Since Sep 20, 2012
I truly don’t see an Election Day voter waiting around unsure of his/her vote then boom a storm and zero gets the nod.
Such people cannot truly exist in large numbers.
The key to this election has always been about enthusiasm.
Zero had all the hype, momentum, media, and everything his way in 08’ and he carried FL by 2.5 and Ohio by 4.5.
The environment and mood of the electorate is so opposite this year that I don’t see anything close to a repeat.
Also, if Romney (according to Pew and Gallup) led early voting by 7 nationwide then zero needs to actually win by a couple of points on Tuesday to win the election.
And Election Day is where we shine traditionally anyway so I think zero is done for.
Throw out the polls and watch how the candidates act and everyone do their part to get out the vote.
Elections are at this stage about getting your people to the polls much more than they are about trying to change minds.
A bit terrifyingly, it appears on the verge to be ‘on hold’ for four more. Unbelievable.
Yep. That traitor definitely did not help the situation.
My guess is that he was told he won’t be getting a post from a Romney administration and this was his way of saying, well eff you, too.
If this election proves nothing else to the GOP establishment, limousine liberals, and country-club Republicans, it should prove that Republican candidates will not and cannot win without the conservative base. We make or break their chances of winning.
And yet, they continue to flip the bird at us.
Go away, Christie. You did your part fighting the unions and representing the fiscal policies we conservatives have been screaming about for 20 years.
You’re used up now, and it’s time for you to go away.
We care about Benghazi.. The average person who knows more about prime-time TV than The Constitution could care less about it. Benghazi will not save or hurt anyone. Forgot Benghazi and concentrate on winning. If we win, we can put it right, but if we lose, Benghazi will never be paid for.
Obama might have "looked" presidential the first couple of days, but now we can expect to see cold, starving New Yorkers begging news crews for help -- which the Obama administration can not possibly deliver. New York City looks like it's been suddenly changed into a third world banana republic -- with snow. I would be shocked if Obama wins the popular vote. Dunno about the electoral vote. I'm keeping my fingers crossed about Ohio. And Pennsylvania.
“but now has dropped 2. Obama has gained 2”
The MOE for this poll is 2.5%.
It’s too early to conclude that anything has changed.
Yours is by far the most perceptive post I've read. You hit it spot on and that's why a Romney win is imperative and some here on FR still don't get it. There will be no conservative wave in'16. Romney loses and it's over because a majority will be created by the Demos that will last a long long time.
Pessimism , resignation to the “fatum” or the islamic “inch allah”.....are not christians and conservative aka realistic.
It means that your future is not written somewhere once for all !
Since a long time the marxist-liberal-fascists have tried to control education and media....It’s our duty to fight back...or “die”