Skip to comments.Democrats biggest losers since 2008 in swing states?
Posted on 11/02/2012 7:47:23 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
According to a new study by the liberal group Third Way, pollster assumptions in the swing states may be very, very wrong. While many pollsters like CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and PPP, just to name two assume that the electorate model for Tuesday will be similar to 2008, the Third Way study on partisan registration in eight states shows something very, very different. In each of these states, Democratic registration has trailed that of independents and Republicans by significant amounts and in six of the eight states, Democratic registration has declined, sometimes dramatically (via Politicos Morning Report):
In total, since 2008 in these 8 states:
Independent registration has increased 969,589, or 14.4%, and now stands at 7,697,565; Republican registration has increased by 158,037, or 1.3%, and now stands at 12,047,112; and, Democratic registration has decreased by 372,827, or 2.5%, and now stands at 14,723,535.
Democratic registration was down over 800,000 in our August voter registration report. Since then, Democrats have added 427,502 to the voter rolls just in these 8 states.
In 6 statesColorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and PennsylvaniaIndependent registration has grown faster than either Democratic or Republican registration. In Iowa, Republicans gained while Democrats and, to a lesser extent, Independents fell. In New Hampshire, voter registration fell across the board, but Republicans shed the fewest voters. And in 5 statesColorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and North CarolinaIndependent registration increased by double digits, the largest a gain of 25.2% in Colorado and the smallest 19.5% in Nevada.
Their chart shows the problem for Democrats in stark relief:
Recall that the response to the fact that Romney has consistently led nationally among independents (although not always in each state) has been that independents are proto-Republicans that shed their party identification. At least in these swing states, that appears to be more true of Democrats rather than Republicans. Overall, Republican identification has slightly increased, while Democratic identification has declined over the last four years. That corroborates Gallup findings that Republican and Democratic identification has equalized in the population.
This chart shows the folly of assuming that the 2012 electorate will look like 2008′s, especially in these swing states. And I suspect that this same dynamic has taken place in most of the other 42 states, too. If Romneys winning independents and Republican registration has gained a net 3.8% over Democrats in the last four years, that looks dispositive.
All of which tells me the polls are way off - we should ban them for 48 hours!
How on earth can the election be tied with the small turnout crowds O’s getting? Where’s the voter enthusiasm for him. Where is the burning ardor for The One?
I don’t so get it!
The polls were all way off in 2008, too. Just ask President McCain......
Thanks for the post. This is one of several indicators that suggest the polls are giving Obama an unrealistic edge. After 2008 and on through to 2010 the political alignment changed and there has been nothing to shift it back. Also we must remember with the collaspe of Acorn and the cleaning up of voter registerations and new id laws also help neutralize the 2008 advantage.
Other big things that are having a clear influence. Young people are not enthusiastic to vote for Obama and there has even been some erosion of enthusiasm in minority groups. Obama also has tanked with white voters which still represent the largest chunk of the electorate and will continue to do so for a much longer period since the growth of minority populations has slowed.
If Romney doesn’t win Tuesday I will be really surprised. His leads with independents which is also something that many of our Senate candidates also have an edge with should carry the day. We should see in most states a Republican turnout advantage of 2-3 points if we don’t win its says more about us than Obama.
McCain never led with independents. Obama had that edge in 2008 and he was whooping McCain in the early vote. That is reversed now. The only way the polls are correct is if Democrats turnout equal to 2008 or if GOP turnout in even lower levels than 2008. I don’t know anyone who believes either of those things. Also we have referendums on Gay marriage in states like MN and ME that should drive up the conservative share of turnout in those states.
GOP Tsunami alert for November 6th...