Posted on 11/02/2012 4:40:55 PM PDT by montag813
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Whoa whoa whoa people... if u think one day changes an election like this then you are not looking at this with much realistic perspective. First we all know Morris has been out on a limb with is hyped landslide analogy. Second Christie has to do for his state as Governor what he has to do in such a disaster moment and that is to kiss Federal a**. Yes its the last week of an election and the weather thing took the spiral of Benghazi off the table but can this move an entire nation after a year of campaigning and if so... then we should all jump off a bridge.... stay calm, stay focused... emit radiation of power thoughts... MITT ROMNET PRESIDENT!
Morris, I’m getting ready to kick you in the nards.
>>>Morris’ motto is: Always be figuring out how to make a buck! This is all MOE stuff. I don’t believe that the fundamentals have changed.>>>
I, too, have felt for a long time that Morris writes ANYTHING that he thinks will make him money. I no longer pay any attention to his scribbles.
There was no polling for days after Sandy.
Well, at least you seem to know the difference. I'm amazed at how many people don't. I see that word used incorrectly all the time these days.
morris is just trolling for clicks
Don’t worry, I didn’t say that seeing Christy hand in hand with Obama was a gamechanger and don’t believe that, given that the Jersey shore is a war zone and can’t possibly help Obama with his cronies slow response. These people have food on their mind, not voting on Tuesday.
We were just saying that strong arrogant personalities repel over time, particularly in politics. Chris is what Chris is, and I like it when he is giving the union hell, but gushing over a commie who could not possibly care less, unless it helps him, is a channel changer, if you get my drift.
Ann Coulter is a Chris Christie Republican.
I remember 1992 and 2000...
1992...Cap Weinberger was indicted by a rogue special prosecutor.
2000...W’s DWI hit the fan.
Changes in polls don’t just “happen.”
Dick Morris hedging his bets. In 2000, he’d say one week that Bush would win in a landslide, the next week that Gore hd the election sewn up.
I don’t think Christie meant to cost Romney the election.. he spoke so fervently when he campaigned for Romney in Virginia in October... he wants Romney to win.. just my opinion...
I don’t think Christie meant to cost Romney the election.. he spoke so fervently when he campaigned for Romney in Virginia in October... he wants Romney to win.. just my opinion...
I don’t think Christie meant to cost Romney the election.. he spoke so fervently when he campaigned for Romney in Virginia in October... he wants Romney to win.. just my opinion...
Christie did not cost Romney, give it a break. What was he supposed to do, yell at Obama and say he shouldn’t come? That would have done more harm to Romney than what he has done.
Christie is in a pickle, he has to represent his people first and foremost, before any election. That is his job. That is what he was elected to do. Anything that even smelled of partisanship would have come back on Romney in a New York second.
Dead to me: John Roberts. Chris Christie.
Who’s next for the GOP circular file?
except that if romney wins, that completes john roberts plan to brillianty keep the supreme court relevant, and, repeal obamacare.
excuse me, peeps. there are only two facts that matter regarding morris.
one, he bases his landslide prediction on known , reliable polls (eg, gallup saying polls show national id change from d+3 to r+5), then he just extrapolates what any of us could do.
two, realize, he is a shyster who worked for clinton (before obama, the slimiest and worst president we ever had), humiliated his wife with a prostitute, and showed clinton how to triangulate (ie, have clinton doublecross those who voted for him) just to get himself reelected.
hardly a man of character
Nice Gaboon Viper!
Christie is like that big fat loser kid in school who is right there with you plotting the big protest to the crappy school lunches and then at the last minute spills his guts to the assistant principal to curry favor.
Motto: Don’t trust highly dysfunctional people no matter how much they suck up to you. There is a reason he weighs 300 pounds more than he should.
I never said Christie planned this in advance. I am merely stating that he is using this unfortunate disaster as an opportunity to advance his own narrow political ambitions. As for running as a Democrat, the left doesn’t actual care so long as you have a D next to your name. All would be instantly forgiven.
Yep, one of the most impressive vipers IMO.
Physically, it is a perfect resmeblence to the republican snake known as Christy, and it’s venom is extremely toxic, an very dangerous reptile.
After what he has done, I will never support this man. He should join the democRAT party right now.
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