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Pennsylvania Within Range for Mitt (Jay Cost Analysis)
TwitLonger ^ | Nov. 2, 2012 | Jay Cost

Posted on 11/02/2012 5:37:55 PM PDT by wolf24

The low-down on the Keystone State:

Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County's population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush '04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: election; mittromney; obama; pa2012election; paelection; pennsylvania
Jay Cost latest analysis of Pennsylvania.
1 posted on 11/02/2012 5:37:56 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: HamiltonJay; LS; TonyInOhio; Perdogg; nhwingut; SoftwareEngineer

Ping


2 posted on 11/02/2012 5:42:40 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: wolf24; LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Very good analysis.

For ONCE I agree with the NYTIMES. Either the Governor is super confident about PA or he is beyond desperate

He would NOT go to PA for any other reason

96 hours till we find out


3 posted on 11/02/2012 5:47:23 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Weekend Optimism: Romney Win Prediction Roundup
4 posted on 11/02/2012 5:55:27 PM PDT by Jay777 (My personal blog: www.stoptheaclu.com)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Jay just posted this on twitter regarding his analysis:

"Note well: this isn't a prediction that PA goes red. It's a plausible path to GOP victory & suggestion Team Mitt sees something real."

Just FYI.

5 posted on 11/02/2012 5:55:40 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: wolf24

Nobody has mentioned this but how will the Eagles playing on MNF affect turnout? I know I’m tired after a late game, think it will peel 10-20k off the Philly vote?


6 posted on 11/02/2012 6:03:14 PM PDT by sharkshooting
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To: Jay777

As I said earlier, Gov Romney must see something to go there and spend money

I will be analyzing data all weekend.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 6:08:22 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


8 posted on 11/02/2012 6:28:46 PM PDT by randita
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To: sharkshooting

I hadn’t thought about the Eagles game. You may be right....

My hope is that they are making a sound and calculated risk by allocating time and energy in PA that could be spent in OH, WI, IA, etc.

But, I trust they know what they are doing...


9 posted on 11/02/2012 6:31:17 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: wolf24

Ok on the analysis, I like to be positive. But this guy is not from Pa, not from south eastern Pa, and definitely not from Philadelphia. If you grow up in Philadelphia then you learn never to “write” Philly. Maybe I am old and now live in central Pa, but a dead give away for someone outside the area is saying or writing “Philly”. It is pronounced, “fillauuhdellfeeaha”. It is written, “Philadelphia”.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 7:04:02 PM PDT by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
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To: sharkshooting
Nobody has mentioned this but how will the Eagles playing on MNF affect turnout? I know I’m tired after a late game, think it will peel 10-20k off the Philly vote?

You can't be serious? If you put MNF above removing Obama from office, your kids and grandkids ought to kick your a$$ over the goalpost.

11 posted on 11/02/2012 7:04:13 PM PDT by eeriegeno (<p>)
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To: eeriegeno

Not me! Good grief! Low info philly rats that will throw back a few and watch Vick blow a game late.

Think before you post. We are supposed to be on the same side. Irrational overreaction is for liberal group-think.

I’ll await your apology. Might be awhile I bet...

Go Falcons, by the way.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 7:38:12 PM PDT by sharkshooting
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To: wolf24
Susquihana (sp?) has Romney +4 and Smith +2. That is more telling than the RvO side because it shows Casey can’t get past 45%. The ground game in Pa for GOP is strong and Romnmney ads are flooding the state as they did in Florida when Mitt crushed the life out of Newt in the primary.
13 posted on 11/03/2012 5:04:44 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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