Posted on 11/03/2012 6:36:26 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
[ Just thought about that a few minutes ago. If Christie is smart, come out blasting FEMA. In fact, I am giving it a 50/50 chance that he does. ]
I wouldn’t be on it. Christie is for Christie. His interests are best served if Romney loses. Remember his convention speech that hardly mentioned Romney? Many thought it was his 2016 campaign launch speech. That seems even more obvious after his Obama ass kissing this past week. He went on every freaking talk show that would have him to sing Obama praises. Christie is a weasel.
It`s all about turnout. We have sufficient numbers to turn back the darkside if we want it badly enough to vote in record numbers.
So, conservatives, GOPers, patriots across America.. do we want freedom or Obama?
We've been told how the state polls lag behind the national polls. Well now the state polls are starting to peak and Romney looks great! Perhaps in another week or two Romney's state poll numbers will start to go down to reflect the "lag" but, gosh, the Election is TUESDAY!
Sorry, Barry!
Maybe Obama will win the popular and Romney will win the electoral college. Still, I'm convinced Obama will lose!
You have a point, but he also is a Republican. We'll find out soon enough. What all the mayhem in NJ, coming out now against Obama is in his best interests.
Yup, Obama is almost certainly seeing a Sandy bounce. It’s small, but in a race that is nearly tied it’s meaningful. We’ve had our Act of God/October Surprise this time around in hurricane Sandy and it seems to have helped Hussein quite a lot.
No way these numbers are accurate. Odumbo at minus 8??? Impossible.
What happened to the “Daily Swingstate Tracking Poll?” Is it still being published? It was the one that used a seven day rolling average.
Looking at the electoral map, the South is solidly in Romney’s column. It looks like to me that he’ll get more than half of the swing states this election. I don’t think it’s a stretch that he’ll win Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he’ll probably pick up Colorado. I think Obama’s in big trouble.
A short story from a little country in the far north.
Some ten years ago the citizens in that small country were going to vote in a referendum. Their political leaders as well as the big industralists and the union bosses wanted them to change their old currency for the new shining Euro. For a number of reasons they felt that the people should make that decision themselves (as long as they said YES)!
But after a campaign that lasted almost a year, less than a week before the election day the NO had the lead in almost every poll with something between 10 - 15%.
Then tragedy struck. Four days before the referendum the Minister of Foreign Affairs who had been one of the leding voices for the YES campaign, was stabbed to death when out shopping for clothes to wear during the last TV debate.
The campaign was stalled. The debate was cancelled. Instead the media (including the state run TV) was filled with eulogies for the young woman and her political career, not least the wonderful job she had done during the referendum campaign. On Saturday there was a memorial cermony at one of the main squares in the capital, with the Prime Minister delivering and eulogy to his former FM. This was of course also broadcast.
During this period five national polls were conducted. Three of those showed a very sudden tightening of the race - actually those three, Gallup included, showed that the YES had caught up with the NO and it was a 50/50 race.
The next day was polling day. The result stood clear early that evening. The NO:s had won an overwhelming victory, with the same figures the polls had predicted before the murder.
So, in this small country a catastrophic event did not affect the vote despite what some people told the pollsters.
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON!
GOTV!!!
The media is doing everything they can to hield Obama from his Katrina. The contrast with how they covered Katrina/Bush vs. Sandy/Obama is astounding. Obama’s situation is even worse because he basically did a photo op and moved on.
For it is the doom of man that he forgets...
- Merlin, from the movie Excalibur
You're right. But Christie gets his mug on TV any time he wants, and we never know what's going to fly out of his yapper. He's surprised us before.
What bugs me about this poll is that Ras has Barry with a 51% approval rating. Frankly, I find that unbelievable.
What bugs me about this poll is that Ras has Barry with a 51% approval rating. Frankly, I find that unbelievable.
Michael Barone also said he wondered how useful polling was going to be now that many many folks no longer have landlines and many many also just don’t answer the phone when they don’t recognize the number. We got rid of our landline a month or so ago. Before that, if I didn’t recognize a caller-ID number as a friend or family, I didn’t answer the phone. Too many telemarketers and other undesirables call. I am no different from most people in this regard. How can anyone get an accurate sample with so many like me? It then comes down to special sauce modeling. I have doubts that any of them are able to detect intensity. Internal campaign polls are the only ones worth it as they are paid for by the campaigns. Look at the two candidates, look at the media, they know which way this is tilting. It is odd to hear an expert like Barone make a pick four days out with such confidence. He knows something that majority of us don’t and is perhaps one of the top ten minds in the USA when it comes to precincts. I side with Barone. Nate Silver is Obama’s Love Monkey.
..Ras has been pretty close, but Barone’s analysis nails it IMO, except maybe NV...
Kinda my thought -- the woman in the shelter who needed diapers that Obama promised he would help probably hasn't gotten much. From what I've seen of FEMA's and Red Cross's effectiveness (appreciating it's a disaster of HUGE magnitude), the woman and her baby are probably covered in poo by now. This will NOT help Zero on Tuesday. We'll see what Christie says on the Sunday talk shows. I think Christie is articulate enough to twist the knife into Obama without sounding hugely partisan.
I think that the best polls are probably close to useless right now, and the worst ones are much less than useless. Given that Reagan won with 50.7% in 1980, I think it will be close to that for Romney.
R/R are drawing huge crowds, O/B not-so-big. Certainly not 2008-big. Morris keeps saying the almost all of the "undecided" voters will break for the challenger. So reading the tea leaves, I still think RR manage to pull it off.
If there was a D+4 from D+2 shift in the Rasmussen screen, then all of the change is explained. That would include the increase in approval.
It makes a bit of sense to change that screen in that blue voters are not being polled with their phones/power offline. That would be the rationale for the change.
Where does it say this D+2 —> D+4 shift did take place?
why are people so addicted to their daily rasmoosen like little baby birds waiting for a worm ?
its sad to watch
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