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Romney's Pennsylvania push not a mirage. The numbers surprisingly favor Romney/Ryan
American Thinker ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rick Moran

Posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.

But there is a method to Mitt's supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:

*****

Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County's population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush '04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: obama; pa; pennsylvania; romney

1 posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:55 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s all about the “sheep’ RAT votes in Philadelphia + however number of ‘fraud’ votes they can rally up (dead people, double dippers, etc...) in the North Phila and West Phila sections.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 7:54:18 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

Obama is going to take a big hit in traditionally democrat white-Italian South Philadelphia, and white Northeast Phila. That should be the big story in demolishing the Philadelphia RAT ‘firewall’.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 7:56:54 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

Salena Zito on John Batchelor last night ...Mittens can win if Obamas voters turn out is less than 08..it has to match 08 for OBAMA to win....


4 posted on 11/03/2012 8:00:25 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: LibFreeUSA

The Catholic democrat from Philly will break for Romney. When you religion is under attack by the president you have to vote for the other guy. Pollsters are ignoring this flip of the Catholic voter this year.


5 posted on 11/03/2012 8:02:21 AM PDT by Kozy (Calling Al Gore)
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To: Kozy

Right. He went after a bridge too far by attacking the Catholic church. The other word is COAL. South-Western Pa lives (lived) off coal and anyone in PA who is not beholden to coal, knows someone who is.

O was also mocking Pa folks when he went after “bitter clingers” (to Bibles and guns). Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=C6E8Vc2uWRo

That supercilious POS


6 posted on 11/03/2012 8:11:54 AM PDT by shalom aleichem
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To: SeekAndFind
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

I'm pessimistic about PA and think that Dumbo will manufacture the 433K Philly votes he needs to win the state.

Ohio I think is also a question mark.

However I am optimistic about the other swing states.

7 posted on 11/03/2012 8:16:15 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: SeekAndFind

If Romney wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, I don’t see how Obama is going to have any chance.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 8:18:18 AM PDT by Crucial (Tolerance at the expense of equal treatment is the path to tyranny.)
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To: LibFreeUSA

Speaking as someone from italian heritage who lived off grant ave NE phila, i hope you are right


9 posted on 11/03/2012 8:25:05 AM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If Romney takes PA, it would confound RAT operatives for years to come.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 8:30:44 AM PDT by SC_Pete
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To: LibFreeUSA

I lived in Philly from ‘97 to ‘01. Last month I attended a wedding in NJ so I swung by Pat’s for a steak. S. Philly, unfortunately, is no longer Italian. Even the “Italian Market” area has turned into Little Mexico.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 8:47:10 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: LibFreeUSA

People were handing out free Catholics for Romney/Ryan/Smith signs in far northeast Philly yesterday. I’m glad he’s going to Yardley...but the far Northeast portion of philadelphia (although theres also a fair share of unions there) could also help set off the north/west Philly fraud... I mean votes. Hoping and praying.


12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:16:57 AM PDT by SMCC1
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To: SeekAndFind

PA is trending Red.... the GOP won epic victories in 2010, winning back control of the PA House, the statehouse, most of the congressional delegation and a US Senate seat.

Think of Philly as a very large Democrat iceberg in a very Red State. Luckily enough, the share of the Democrat statewide vote is flat.

Unlike VA, PA looks to become even redder than OH. Its like in MO - the 2010 mid-term blowout there brightened GOP national hopes.

Romney is going to be the first GOP presidential candidate since Bush I to carry the Keystone State.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 9:29:40 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Good points about the recent election history in PA. Isn’t Joe Biden’s old hometown of Scranton now represented in Washington by a Republican Congressman?


14 posted on 11/03/2012 9:39:55 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Alberta's Child

Bill Scranton R 1961-63
Joe McDade R 1963-99
Don Sherwood R 1999-2007
Chris Carney D 2007-2011
Tom Marino R 2011-2013

Marino’s from Williamsport, and Scranton has been shifted to the 17th district. Matt Cartwright D is favored to win.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 9:49:56 AM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


16 posted on 11/03/2012 10:14:53 AM PDT by randita
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To: SeekAndFind
The way I hear it: Romney has the rural voters, he has coal country and he has Pittsburgh suburbs in steel country because they are ready to start making oil pipelines and other projects.

His problem is Philly and the surrounding areas (and thankfully, like NYC, part of their suburbs are in another state and don't matter), but even there, there are evangelicals who will vote for him despite what they tell pollsters.

17 posted on 11/03/2012 1:23:57 PM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Rome didn't fall in a day, either.)
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To: Tanniker Smith

Philly is full of brave people.

Why would any of them support Benghazi-Coward Obama?


18 posted on 11/03/2012 1:30:41 PM PDT by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Donnafrflorida

Hey you. I also lived by NE Phila airport...on Woodbridge Rd (off Ashton)


19 posted on 11/03/2012 5:18:01 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: SMCC1

We’ll get the ‘burbs this time (Delco, Montgomery, and Bucks), if PA goes to Romney it’s because we’ve taken the fight ‘inside the perimeter’ .... inside Philly into the NE and South Philly areas, that’s where the ‘victory’ will be won.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 5:22:43 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: Crucial

There are just two states you need to watch on Tue.... NH and PA, if they both go for Romney, the election is over!!!


21 posted on 11/03/2012 5:23:53 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

Drumore drive 1983 we were neighbors. lol


22 posted on 11/03/2012 6:54:19 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: LibFreeUSA

Drumore drive 1983 we were neighbors. lol


23 posted on 11/03/2012 6:57:53 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The key for Romney this election are the suburbs. Now when I say suburbs, I'm talking soccer moms in Honda minivans with kids in the backseat texting each other on Android devices, guys mowing lawns and grilling steaks on Weber grills, endless stretches of main roads with repeating Home Depots, Staples; Best Buys and chains of casual restaurants like Outback; Chilis; Macaroni Grill; Olive Garden; Red Lobster; P.F. Changs; etc.

I'm talking places like Snellville, GA; Escondido, CA; Naperville, IL; Chelmsford, MA; Scottsdale, AZ; and on and on.

Almost all these heavily populated and prosperous suburbs swung towards Obama in 2008. They are not going to swing that way in 2012. Why? Because Mitt Romney appeals to most of these suburbanites. He's a Republican but he's not a "dangerous or scary" Republican like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum would have been. These suburbanites had their fling with Obama and now the honeymoon is over. Romney represents to them a "safe" Republican and a competent person who can get the economy moving again. Romney doesn't scare these people. He's the kind of person they see out on the golf course or at Gentlemen's Wearhouse trying on a blue blazer and getting some slacks and dress shirts. He's also the type of guy that is executive VP at the high tech company they work at or maybe senior partner at the law firm they belong to.

Obama lost all this suburban base. And that is why places like Pennsylvania are in play this election. Sure, Obama is going to turn out the inner city welfare crowd and all the immigrants who think our government owes them something. That's why he's going to still end up with around 47% of the vote.

But these suburbs are going to deliver the 6-7% of the vote that McCain couldn't get four years ago. So we are going to see something like a 53-47 or 54-46% victory for Romney.

24 posted on 11/03/2012 7:22:49 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Donnafrflorida

Yeah right off Academy next to the airport. ‘79-’84 used to go to 94th Aerosquadron all the time with my wife. Went to Judge then St Joes. Now in Jersey.


25 posted on 11/03/2012 8:22:57 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: SamAdams76

Lets keep our fingers crossed. I’m headed tmrw Sunday to see Romney come to PA for huge rally in Bucks county (Yardley PA) 5:30pm starts 2pm!


26 posted on 11/03/2012 8:27:32 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

Shady Brook Farm, Yardley PA !!!


27 posted on 11/03/2012 8:29:30 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

Been awhile but i turned right on academy then left on grant i think. went to roxborough high. then moved up to ne. worked for bel of pa til i left for fla. most of my family still in ne and bucks county.
i used to teach programming at night in marlton nj.
guess your taxes are HIGH.
i also used to live near olney on hope st. Went back once since 1984. dont miss it.


28 posted on 11/03/2012 8:48:19 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: Donnafrflorida

Sounds like u left for ‘greener’ pastures. Dont blame ya. Presume you’re in FL, been going there every few yrs. South Beach. Nothing like 80 degree water. Hope u guys bring FL home for Romney.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 10:09:41 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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