Seems a little high on the independents, about right on democrat, and laughably low on Republicans (29% was the 2008 turnout). 35D/36R/29I is what Gallup says is the current makeup. Re-average for that and Romney has a 2 or 3 point lead.
Funny how the Indy splits goes up to 34 right as Obama starts doing better with them.
too many Indies, that is why that number is tied.