Skip to comments.Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call (R 47% O 47%)
Posted on 11/03/2012 9:22:32 PM PDT by smoothsailing
by Mike Wereschagin
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m.
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.
Theyre both in here because of exactly what youre seeing in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The polls error margin is 3.46 percentage points..........
(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...
I thought Susquehanna Polling & Research had Romney up by 4? Why is this saying it is tied?
IF PA and OH are really too close to call then Obama will get them because Those are two state where the democrats have well established system to cheat. Hence the reason why they went to their well planted judge to put a stop to voter ID.
Romney is ahead.
The MSM will NEVER admit Obama is toast.
Different poll. Regardless, both show Obama is on the ropes in a state he easily won in 2008. If he loses Ohio or PA the election is over.
Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA. If I was an undecided voter in PA I would be flattered that they made an effort for my vote.
um..because it’s a different polling outfit?
Nope if Obama is really at 47%, Romney will win PA big.
You are right about that. I heard on the radio today that because of voter fraud we can add from 2% up to as high as 6% to Obama’s side.
Lot’s of voter fraud happening
They are the same polling agency. The recent one showing a four point lead was actually the same poll it released a couple weeks ago. It was not a new one.
It hasn’t changed. The poll was update with the same result as far as I remember.
Nope, the last SP&R had Obama up by two. This is brand new, the entire poll including internals will be released later today (Sunday) to coincide with Rommney’s rally in the Philly burbs.
Holy cow...a shift of six points in 3 weeks? Seems quite awful.
I’d like to know what the internals of this poll are. The early Susquehanna poll showing Romney +4 sampled Dems +4. That is simply not realistic in a state where the active registration edge is D+12. At D+8/D+9, which seems more realistic to me for PA in this cycle, that would mean a dead heat. Still, promising. But the newer poll may actually be the same result as before — just with more Dems in the sample.
SP&R used a D+6 sample.
Obama, pack it up buddy. You’ll probably run in 4 yeas anyways.
That’s a little more realistic than the previous one. So, within the MOE it’s not really a different result; it’s still a dead heat.
That was an old poll.
Hmmm, PA has a 51-37 DEM-GOP registered voter breakout. Is D+6 realistic?
Both polls used a D+6. As you say, within the MOE.
If we average the two, it’s Romney 48 Obama 46.
If 2/3 of the undecideds break for Romney he wins 52 to 48.
I’ll take it. It will make for an early night and a Romney wave rolling west!
Yes it is, very much so.
It has nothing to do with registration.
In 2008 it was D+7 (D/R/I) 44/37/18 and in 2004 it was D+2 (D/R/I) 41/39/20.
I guess that makes sense. PA has GOP controlled upper and lower state houses, governorship, and US House representatives.
I will be at the rally in Philly tomorrow. I’m so excited!!
a lot of D’s will vote for Romney in Pa.
blue dog Reagan Democrats
Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.
Regardless of the D registration advantage, the self-identified vote went D+7 in 2008 and D+2 in 2004. a D+6 sample may be OVERSAMPLING Democrats.
Keep in mind that the we are a closed primary state, in consequence of which a lot of voters change party ID without changing official party registration unless they have a hot primary to vote in, so registration edge is somewhat of a lagging indicator here.
Susquehanna has a pretty good reputation, although I would be happier with D+8 or D+9. However, there are a LOT of lazy Dems in PA, so we win statewide races quite often during the midterm election years.
I wish the Scranton diocese and Johnston/Altoona archdiocese would have priests reading the episcopal letters being read out at Mass in Illinois this Sunday. OH and PA have very large ethnic Catholic populations and the Roman Church could help.
The registration edge for Dems in PA is that big?? Very surprising considering their congressional delegation usually tilts Republican and I think the GOP has controlled the legislature for most of the recent past. The state is certainly very purple so it must be that a lot of those registered Dems vote Republican in many elections. So I am hopeful Mitt can eke out a win there. If so he will almost certainly take the presidency.
Actually of those identifying as Republican vs. Democrat (including leaners), Gallup has PA with a D+5 edge (in 2011). That’s a large swing from 2009. You can see those statistics as well as other states from this link:
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Actually, D+6 is quite reasonable. If anything, it understates the crossover vote this year. A D+4 or D+5 is more likely, IMO.
In Pennsylvania, voter registration is a lousy indicator of voter intent. Consider the fact that a D+13 registration advantage has resulted in a current Republican Governor, Republican control of the General Assembly, a Republican majority Congressional delegation, and one of the most conservative Republican US Senators(Pat Toomey).
Leftist PPP is claiming Obama has a six point lead in PA... with D+10... (D/R/I: 48/38/14)
That’s laughable, PPP is certainly known for skewing polls. LOL
A D+4-6 range is realistic.
“Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA.”
It would be “brilliant” if they’d remind the people in PA about Hussein’s remark about the bitter clinger hicks in areas like Pennsylvania. I wonder if they remember that.
Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.
Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.
Think positive, Fred.
Remember, Romney was on the winning end of the Redskins Rule today!
2 weeks ago they had Romney up by 4. In their new poll, Romney dropped 2 and Obama gained 2. So it’s really a discouraging sign, with the momentum on Obama’s side in PA. Still too close to call though.
Ever since I stopped being a union thug in the early 80’s I’ve worked phone banks and as a poll watcher for Republicans. The thrill of Reagan crushing Mondull was a once in a lifetime experience. This year, I just don’t have the time; the memory of being told by McCain’s people that “internal polling” was telling them we could win PA (we lost by 10+) has left me deeply suspicious. I hope it’s true. But I’m keeping my expectations low.
Democrats in PA aren’t the typical liberals you get further northeast. They are mainly two groups. Blue collar Catholic types, who want very conservative social policy on guns, abortion and marriage, but they want high taxes on the “greedy” rich to be redistributed back to them. The other type are basically libertarians, wealthier, who want low taxes for obvious reasons, would be fine with legal abortion, same-sex marriage, and gun control, but would be fine with government making a bunch of fiscal cuts in general.
This makes a lot of PA Democrats potential swing voters, and it also makes them not particularly enthusiastic, which is why they don’t show up for mid-terms that much. Neither party really speaks to everything they really want.
I volunteered for McCain/Palin here and they told us the same thing basically. Didn't bother to volunteer this time. It was a pretty demoralizing experience. And Romney not even trying to campaign in PA until the last minute, unlike Bush and McCain who hit here heavily, was not too encouraging. Of course I've never been enthusiastic about Romney as a candidate, and didn't bother attending any of his rallies unlike I did for Bush and Palin.