Ok.... I need some help here....just watching Fox news and they are reporting that the FLA Early vote breaks this way - 45% DEM 36% Rep and for Absentee it breaks 43% REP and 39% DEM.... the problem is that they don’t break these numbers down as to what the percentage of Early Votes. vs. Absentee Votes.... if they said 95% of these are Absentee, and the REP have the 4 point edge, who cares that DEMS are winning by 9 points in the Early Vote...but some how I don’t think Absentee votes are outpacing Early Votes... but everyone here seems excited by these numbers.... I am trying to understand how the 2008 numbers matter for the 2012 election.... I just want to take a nap and wake up Wednesday morning.
I’m not a mathematician but it doesn’t seem likely that much of the registered republican vote will go to Obama. It is likely that much of the independent vote will be for Romney, and a greater than usual number of democrats seem to be fed up with their party’s candidate.
Please see #7