Skip to comments.Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House,Republicans take Senate.
Posted on 11/04/2012 6:55:53 AM PST by COUNTrecount
Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House, and Republicans take Senate. 100% chance that Nate Silvers career collapses into ruin.
Since today is Saturday before the election and I think voters are mostly committed to what they are going to do next Tuesday, I think its time to lock in my personal expectations for whats going to happen as we conclude the 2012 election season. As of sometime around 9pm CST, Mitt Romney will be declared our 45th President in what will become a commanding lead of 322 to 216 electoral votes. Republicans will hold the House and expand their majority there by a few seats but I think that will be a gain of around 3+ or so; in thinking about the span of time from 2010 to 2012, I think voters are as-angry or a-little-more-angry than they were at Democrats since the midterm elections so I believe the House will be more or less where it is now and any changes that happen will be to the Republicans advantage. The Senate will also fall securely into GOP hands, but Ill get into those numbers below.
It will be interesting for me to see how close my results come to what actually happens on Tuesday because I 100% believe all of the polls are being manipulated purposefully by pollsters to give Barack Obama a psychological advantage in this election. I directly accuse almost everyone involved in polling of rolling the dice with their reputations because these people honestly want to do anything they can to allow Barack Obama an advantage and so they are willing to risk the destruction of their reputations to push him over the finish line if they can. Since this is the first time in American political history when theyve ever done anything like this, I think that a lot of people have not picked up on the fact that there is not a single reputable polling outfit left. On top of that, I also believe that a great number of Americans out there are purposefully lying to pollsters to make them look bad on November 6th as punishment to the national media for being such a Ministry of Truth for the last four years and churning out nonstop pro-Obama propaganda.
Because I believe the talking heads will melt on the screen come Election Night because none of the results coming in will match the polls the Left relied on for their mental health in the last days of this campaign, I intend to watch MSNBC all day next Tuesday because I want to document in real time the implosion of the Ministry of Truth. This is the only time in my life that I will ever say this, so mark it in the history books, but I encourage all of you to watch MSNBC if you can on November 6th because decades from now you will want to describe to your progeny how unhinged the Left became on live tee-vee as the Obama Regime came to an abrupt end. This would be like you being able to tell someone in the future that you were there when Mount Vesuvius erupted and leveled Pompeii and you had time-traveled back to sit in a lounge chair and sip chianti while you watched it all happen LIVE.
Before I get into the breakdown of what I think is going to happen I want to talk about why my prediction is so different from what you are probably seeing on other conservative sites (and is, of course, the polar opposite of what Nate Silver is saying). Frankly, Ive devoted the last five years of my life to American politics and it has been quite and education. In that time, Ive observed three constants in play during the 2008, 2010, and 2012 elections that I think need to be considered when scrying into the future to determine whats going to happen in a race:
(1) Almost everything the media tells you is a lie designed to help Democrats and there really is a de facto Ministry of Truth that serves the Left on the tee-vee, over the radio, and in newspapers.
(2) Conservative websites are pessimistic places run by straight males who are deathly afraid of being mocked if theyre wrong about predicting a Republican win but are never concerned about being called out for saying that a Republican will lose (since conservatives are so happy the Republican wins in those instances that euphoria-induced amnesia means theres no downside for a conservative writer to lowball a prediction). I think this is crucial in the 2012 race because I still see conservative writers freaking out their readerships by claiming Obamas going to win Ohio! when that, to me, would be like saying Obamas going to lose Massachusetts!. Neither of those things are going to happen, but it carries almost no negative consequence for a conservative writer to scare his readers by insisting Romney will lose Ohio since when Romney wins his readers will be too thrilled by the win to ever remember how much that guy freaked them out in the lead up to the election. Conservatives are very kind and forgiving people by nature and so conservative writers play with their emotions to generate web traffic, counting on there never being any professional consequences for doing this. I really hope youve learned some lessons from all the fear porn churned out this election at various conservative sites and will ask questions starting November 7th about why any of these guys decided to freak you out over Ohio needlessly.
(3) The Tea Party is real, it exists, it never went anywhere, and is more fired up than ever. This is something that almost no one writes about because Tea Party Americans are not holding rallies every day anymore because they are too busy doing actual work behind the scenes to win this election. The Ministry of Truth (Minitru, for short) tried pretending the Tea Party was just an astroturf, manufactured outfit like Occupy Wall Street was for Democrats but they are dead wrong. The purpose of the Tea Party rallies was to recruit Tea Party Americans into action. Once Tea Party groups were staffed up, they began working hard and no longer needed recruitment drives. This is how a real political movement operates and how results are won. All predictions that Minitru makes of an Obama win or a close election are based on the Tea Party having disappeared and of Americans actually liking Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness.
(4) The biggest reason Obama won in 2008 was because Americans got sucked up into the biggest fad ever to hit the country in many years. I am talking about a fad along the lines of the Cabbage Patch Kids, pet rocks, neon friendship bracelets, McRibs, New Kids on the Block, Beanie Babies, etc. Combine the fact that Americans wanted to be part of hopeychange with the fact that many saw Barack Obama as the sort of magical black man character that Will Smith always plays in movies and you will understand that Obama won election because a great many white people thought he was the magical black man whod come to save them (like in the movies!) and they wanted to be part of making history when that happened (alongside all others sucked into the fad). Minitru keeps trying to believe that instead of all this emotion that Americans actually decided with their thinking brains that they wanted to take the country to the Left and transform it into something radically different than has existed for the last 235-odd years. Thats madness. 2008 was not a transformational election but a massive fad that hit the country like a hurricane and for the last four years weve been cleaning up the damages. Every poll, news article, or analysis of this election is flawed because its based on the conceit that voters choice Obama because they liked what he would do to the country instead of the reality that people had no clue what Obama would really do and instead just wanted the magical black man that the media loved so much to have a chance to dazzle them. When Obama not only failed to dazzle, but actively harmed the country, Americans decided he had to go.
Though Mitt Romney will win this election (decidedly and it wont even be close) on November 6th, 2012 I think that Barack Obama actually lost his bid for reelection on May 21st, 2010 which was the day that Nancy Pelosi rammed Obamacare through the House (without any Democrats even reading the bill) over the objections of Americans who resented Democrats abusing their power in this way. An argument could be made that Obama actually lost reelection on December 24th, 2009 because thats the day the Senate rammed Obamacare through in a partisan vote with no Democrat Senators ever reading the bill either but Im going with the House vote date for when Obama lost because few paid much attention to the Senates Christmas Eve machinations since Democrats timed the vote to happen during the holidays so they could get away with it.
That House vote, however, seared Obamacare into peoples minds and made Americans realize the only way to get rid of it was to get rid of Obama the first chance they had. The 2010 elections were, thus, a warmup and the first opportunity that Americans had to boot Obamas allies from power. I maintain to this day that Harry Reid would have lost his Senate seat if Sharon Angle had been a better candidate against him but this only proves that voters WANT to get rid of bad Democrats but require a decent Republican alternative to do so.
Clearly, Mitt Romney has proven to be an alternative to Barack Obama that Americans view as a remedy to everything they havent liked in the last few years. Minitru keeps telling you that its almost impossible to unseat an incumbent! but in reality its that an incumbent president only loses reelection when the challenger presents himself as a stark and acceptable REMEDY to the incumbent and thats the very definition of Mitt Romney.
Just so we are clear, I mocked Mitt Romney for four years and tried everything I could to stop him from being the Republican nominee and in all that time I never found a line of attack on the guy that would stick. I also never discovered any dirt on the man and boy did I try. I never wrote about all the many hours I wasted chasing leads in attempts to find anything despicable the man has ever done because I turned up empty every time. Mitt Romney is a great guy and will make an excellent president. Americans who are so fatigued with having an enigma like Obama whose past is cloaked in surreal mysteries will be overjoyed to have in office a man with nothing to hide and no skeletons in his closet. I dare say that Mitt Romney might just be the most decent human begin to ever become president with the unique qualifications to lead the country out of an economic depression and back towards solvency. The guy who turned around the Olympics and saved Salt Lake will do the same thing to the country from Washington and I look forward to the day when I can shake his hand and thank him for agreeing to serve and save the day.
I dont think the polls or other conservative writers are picking up on just how exhausted Americans are with the nonstop outrages and bizarre mysteries of Barack Obama and the Leftist gang of Chicago thugs who went to Washington with him back in 2008. On a very personal note, the way I feel right now is EXACTLY the way I felt when I was in a bad relationship with a really terrible guy named Harvey and I had finally made the decision to break us up and move on with my life. I wanted the weirdness to end. I was sick of wondering what stupid or crazy thing would happen tomorrow. It was time to remove all of Harveys awful relatives and terrible friends from my orbit. I just reached the point where I wanted Harvey out of my life so that I could move on.
I think that nationwide Americans are desperate to breakup with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is our valiant rebound guy who we can enthusiastically rush towards.
At this point, the only people who will be voting for Barack Obama will be:
(A) Confirmed Leftists whose only gripe is that they wish Obama had done more Leftist things in his term
(B) People who just like having a black president because they vote on skin color
(C) People who will vote for any Democrat no matter who that person is
I dont think A+B+C is enough for a Democrat to win a national election, ever.
If it was, then Nancy Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House and the 2010 midterms would have looked exactly like the 2008 election. No matter how much Minitru will try to claim this, the United States is not a Leftist country. It is a center-right country and most states do not default-vote Democrat.
On Tuesday, you will see the Democrats safe states shrink to the smallest number since Ronald Reagan, largely because Mitt Romney appeals to Midwesterners very much like Reagan (perhaps even more so because Romney was a businessman, not an actor, so no one is worried about Romney being able to handle the job the way some were of sending a matinee idol to the White House in 1980). The only safe states for Democrats this year are: Hawaii, California, Washington, Illinois, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the Capital (since DC is not a state but it gets electoral votes equal to those given to the lowest-represented state in the country).
This is a massive pendulum swing from 2008, when Republicans saw their own safe states reduced and threatened by the Obama fad.
Now that the fad has been extinguished, the pendulum has sliced through the Democrats firewall and is obliterating them in states that were normally viewed as safe. While Im predicting that Mitt Romney will win 322 electoral votes, that number could actually be even higher because I think this could be a tidal wave for Republicans that has been building since 2009 when the Tea Party first formed in opposition to Obamacare and the Lefts agenda after Obama took office. I think that 2012 is the year that Democrats actually have to be afraid of losing Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Michigan which would be like Republicans having to worry about losing Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, or Georgia. This is a BIG DEAL that its even in the realm of possibility that Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, or Michigan could be swing states. Never in my life did I think that would happen.
This is what finally made me realize that, yes, Mitt Romney will win Pennsylvania a state that has teased Republicans for years. But if Pennsylvania is really a swing state and is not guaranteed to fall to Democrats every election like California or New York, then 2012 is the year that Republicans win it. If not, then we can never call Pennsylvania a swing state again and must accept it is permanently lost to the Left because of Philadelphias control over the state. But, since I dont believe Pennsylvania is like California or New York and that it has to vote for a Republican sometime I think that Mitt Romney is probably the only Republican it would ever vote for. Barack Obamas War on Coal and his 2008 remarks calling Pennsylvanians bitter and clinging Midwesterners might have been enough of a push to put Romney over the top.
Ohio is a no-brainer and is not even a swing state; its going for Romney because it gave Obama a chance in 2008 and he blew it. Ohioans are loving and decent people who are fair and will give an opportunity to anyone but they will fire someone who does not deliver the goods he promised. Such is Obamas fate in Ohio.
I gave New Mexico to Obama because I looked back on past elections and have seen that more often then not this state votes Democrat, so it might be a sort of Delaware of the west. Since Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island arent leaving the Democrats column this year neither is their cousin out west. I have to admit I have never been to New Mexico and know little about life in the state; as much as I like Governor Susana Martinez and hoped shed be able to carry the state for Romney I just dont see evidence that her personal charm can overcome New Mexicos tendency to be the Delaware of the West.
I do think Democrats lose Nevada though, because I dont see how a state that depends so much on Las Vegas to survive can reelect the man who crippled the tourism industry in Vegas back in 2009. I enjoy reading columns by Steve Wynn, the casino magnate, and he talks about the volcanic anger towards Obama in Nevada. Minitru is putting Nevada in Obamas column just because Harry Reid won reelection in 2010 but as noted above, read would have lost running against someone other than Sharon Angle. If you remember the focus group that Frank Luntz ran in Nevada the night of the second presidential debate youd remember how angry people were there at Obama. How on Earth do they reelect him?
Here in Illinois, Obamas going to win the state by the smallest margin ever for a Democrat; hes actually going to come incredibly close to losing Illinois because enthusiasm for him is so low in Chicagos Cook County. Democrats only win the state because they pull big numbers from Chicagoland. But I think in the end Romney will come up short in Illinois but it will be fun to watch Democrats sweat here a little.
Final Result for the Electoral