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Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House,Republicans take Senate.
HillBuzz ^ | November 3, 2012 | Kevin DuJan

Posted on 11/04/2012 6:55:53 AM PST by COUNTrecount

Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House, and Republicans take Senate. 100% chance that Nate Silver’s career collapses into ruin.

Since today is Saturday before the election and I think voters are mostly committed to what they are going to do next Tuesday, I think it’s time to lock in my personal expectations for what’s going to happen as we conclude the 2012 election season. As of sometime around 9pm CST, Mitt Romney will be declared our 45th President in what will become a commanding lead of 322 to 216 electoral votes. Republicans will hold the House and expand their majority there by a few seats…but I think that will be a gain of around 3+ or so; in thinking about the span of time from 2010 to 2012, I think voters are as-angry or a-little-more-angry than they were at Democrats since the midterm elections so I believe the House will be more or less where it is now and any changes that happen will be to the Republicans’ advantage. The Senate will also fall securely into GOP hands, but I’ll get into those numbers below.

It will be interesting for me to see how close my results come to what actually happens on Tuesday because I 100% believe all of the polls are being manipulated purposefully by pollsters to give Barack Obama a psychological advantage in this election. I directly accuse almost everyone involved in polling of rolling the dice with their reputations because these people honestly want to do anything they can to allow Barack Obama an advantage…and so they are willing to risk the destruction of their reputations to push him over the finish line if they can. Since this is the first time in American political history when they’ve ever done anything like this, I think that a lot of people have not picked up on the fact that there is not a single reputable polling outfit left. On top of that, I also believe that a great number of Americans out there are purposefully lying to pollsters to make them look bad on November 6th…as punishment to the national media for being such a Ministry of Truth for the last four years and churning out nonstop pro-Obama propaganda.

Because I believe the talking heads will melt on the screen come Election Night because none of the results coming in will match the polls the Left relied on for their mental health in the last days of this campaign, I intend to watch MSNBC all day next Tuesday because I want to document in real time the implosion of the Ministry of Truth. This is the only time in my life that I will ever say this, so mark it in the history books, but I encourage all of you to watch MSNBC if you can on November 6th because decades from now you will want to describe to your progeny how unhinged the Left became on live tee-vee as the Obama Regime came to an abrupt end. This would be like you being able to tell someone in the future that you were there when Mount Vesuvius erupted and leveled Pompeii…and you had time-traveled back to sit in a lounge chair and sip chianti while you watched it all happen LIVE.

Before I get into the breakdown of what I think is going to happen I want to talk about why my prediction is so different from what you are probably seeing on other conservative sites (and is, of course, the polar opposite of what Nate Silver is saying). Frankly, I’ve devoted the last five years of my life to American politics and it has been quite and education. In that time, I’ve observed three constants in play during the 2008, 2010, and 2012 elections that I think need to be considered when scrying into the future to determine what’s going to happen in a race:

(1) Almost everything the media tells you is a lie designed to help Democrats and there really is a de facto Ministry of Truth that serves the Left on the tee-vee, over the radio, and in newspapers.

(2) Conservative websites are pessimistic places run by straight males who are deathly afraid of being mocked if they’re wrong about predicting a Republican win…but are never concerned about being called out for saying that a Republican will lose (since conservatives are so happy the Republican wins in those instances that euphoria-induced amnesia means there’s no downside for a conservative writer to lowball a prediction). I think this is crucial in the 2012 race because I still see conservative writers freaking out their readerships by claiming “Obama’s going to win Ohio!” when that, to me, would be like saying “Obama’s going to lose Massachusetts!”. Neither of those things are going to happen, but it carries almost no negative consequence for a conservative writer to scare his readers by insisting Romney will lose Ohio…since when Romney wins his readers will be too thrilled by the win to ever remember how much that guy freaked them out in the lead up to the election. Conservatives are very kind and forgiving people by nature…and so conservative writers play with their emotions to generate web traffic, counting on there never being any professional consequences for doing this. I really hope you’ve learned some lessons from all the “fear porn” churned out this election at various conservative sites and will ask questions starting November 7th about why any of these guys decided to freak you out over Ohio needlessly.

(3) The Tea Party is real, it exists, it never went anywhere, and is more fired up than ever. This is something that almost no one writes about because Tea Party Americans are not holding rallies every day anymore…because they are too busy doing actual work behind the scenes to win this election. The Ministry of Truth (Minitru, for short) tried pretending the Tea Party was just an astroturf, manufactured outfit like Occupy Wall Street was for Democrats…but they are dead wrong. The purpose of the Tea Party rallies was to recruit Tea Party Americans into action. Once Tea Party groups were staffed up, they began working hard and no longer needed recruitment drives. This is how a real political movement operates…and how results are won. All predictions that Minitru makes of an Obama win or a close election are based on the Tea Party having disappeared and of Americans actually liking Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness.

(4) The biggest reason Obama won in 2008 was because Americans got sucked up into the biggest fad ever to hit the country in many years. I am talking about a fad along the lines of the Cabbage Patch Kids, pet rocks, neon friendship bracelets, McRibs, New Kids on the Block, Beanie Babies, etc. Combine the fact that Americans wanted to be part of “hopeychange” with the fact that many saw Barack Obama as the sort of “magical black man” character that Will Smith always plays in movies and you will understand that Obama won election because a great many white people thought he was the “magical black man” who’d come to save them (like in the movies!) and they wanted to be part of “making history” when that happened (alongside all others sucked into the fad). Minitru keeps trying to believe that instead of all this emotion that Americans actually decided with their thinking brains that they wanted to take the country to the Left and transform it into something radically different than has existed for the last 235-odd years. That’s madness. 2008 was not a “transformational election” but a massive fad that hit the country like a hurricane…and for the last four years we’ve been cleaning up the damages. Every poll, news article, or analysis of this election is flawed because it’s based on the conceit that voters choice Obama because they liked what he would do to the country…instead of the reality that people had no clue what Obama would really do and instead just wanted the magical black man that the media loved so much to have a chance to dazzle them. When Obama not only failed to dazzle, but actively harmed the country, Americans decided he had to go.

Though Mitt Romney will win this election (decidedly…and it won’t even be close) on November 6th, 2012 I think that Barack Obama actually lost his bid for reelection on May 21st, 2010 — which was the day that Nancy Pelosi rammed Obamacare through the House (without any Democrats even reading the bill) over the objections of Americans who resented Democrats abusing their power in this way. An argument could be made that Obama actually lost reelection on December 24th, 2009 because that’s the day the Senate rammed Obamacare through in a partisan vote with no Democrat Senators ever reading the bill either…but I’m going with the House vote date for when Obama lost because few paid much attention to the Senate’s Christmas Eve machinations since Democrats timed the vote to happen during the holidays so they could get away with it.

That House vote, however, seared Obamacare into people’s minds and made Americans realize the only way to get rid of it was to get rid of Obama the first chance they had. The 2010 elections were, thus, a warmup…and the first opportunity that Americans had to boot Obama’s allies from power. I maintain to this day that Harry Reid would have lost his Senate seat if Sharon Angle had been a better candidate against him…but this only proves that voters WANT to get rid of bad Democrats but require a decent Republican alternative to do so.

Clearly, Mitt Romney has proven to be an alternative to Barack Obama that Americans view as a remedy to everything they haven’t liked in the last few years. Minitru keeps telling you that “it’s almost impossible to unseat an incumbent!” but in reality it’s that an incumbent president only loses reelection when the challenger presents himself as a stark and acceptable REMEDY to the incumbent…and that’s the very definition of Mitt Romney.

Just so we are clear, I mocked Mitt Romney for four years and tried everything I could to stop him from being the Republican nominee…and in all that time I never found a line of attack on the guy that would stick. I also never discovered any dirt on the man…and boy did I try. I never wrote about all the many hours I wasted chasing leads in attempts to find anything despicable the man has ever done…because I turned up empty every time. Mitt Romney is a great guy and will make an excellent president. Americans who are so fatigued with having an enigma like Obama whose past is cloaked in surreal mysteries will be overjoyed to have in office a man with nothing to hide and no skeletons in his closet. I dare say that Mitt Romney might just be the most decent human begin to ever become president…with the unique qualifications to lead the country out of an economic depression and back towards solvency. The guy who turned around the Olympics and saved Salt Lake will do the same thing to the country from Washington…and I look forward to the day when I can shake his hand and thank him for agreeing to serve and save the day.

I don’t think the polls or other conservative writers are picking up on just how exhausted Americans are with the nonstop outrages and bizarre mysteries of Barack Obama and the Leftist gang of Chicago thugs who went to Washington with him back in 2008. On a very personal note, the way I feel right now is EXACTLY the way I felt when I was in a bad relationship with a really terrible guy named Harvey and I had finally made the decision to break us up and move on with my life. I wanted the weirdness to end. I was sick of wondering what stupid or crazy thing would happen tomorrow. It was time to remove all of Harvey’s awful relatives and terrible friends from my orbit. I just reached the point where I wanted Harvey out of my life so that I could move on.

I think that nationwide Americans are desperate to breakup with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is our valiant rebound guy who we can enthusiastically rush towards.

At this point, the only people who will be voting for Barack Obama will be:

(A) Confirmed Leftists whose only gripe is that they wish Obama had done more Leftist things in his term

(B) People who just like having a black president because they vote on skin color

(C) People who will vote for any Democrat no matter who that person is

I don’t think A+B+C is enough for a Democrat to win a national election, ever.

If it was, then Nancy Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House and the 2010 midterms would have looked exactly like the 2008 election. No matter how much Minitru will try to claim this, the United States is not a Leftist country. It is a center-right country and most states do not default-vote Democrat.

On Tuesday, you will see the Democrats’ safe states shrink to the smallest number since Ronald Reagan, largely because Mitt Romney appeals to Midwesterners very much like Reagan (perhaps even more so because Romney was a businessman, not an actor, so no one is worried about Romney being able to handle the job the way some were of sending a matinee idol to the White House in 1980). The only “safe” states for Democrats this year are: Hawaii, California, Washington, Illinois, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the Capital (since DC is not a state but it gets electoral votes equal to those given to the lowest-represented state in the country).

This is a massive pendulum swing from 2008, when Republicans saw their own “safe states” reduced and threatened by the Obama fad.

Now that the fad has been extinguished, the pendulum has sliced through the Democrats’ firewall and is obliterating them in states that were normally viewed as “safe”. While I’m predicting that Mitt Romney will win 322 electoral votes, that number could actually be even higher because I think this could be a tidal wave for Republicans that has been building since 2009 when the Tea Party first formed in opposition to Obamacare and the Left’s agenda after Obama took office. I think that 2012 is the year that Democrats actually have to be afraid of losing Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Michigan…which would be like Republicans having to worry about losing Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, or Georgia. This is a BIG DEAL that it’s even in the realm of possibility that Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, or Michigan could be swing states. Never in my life did I think that would happen.

This is what finally made me realize that, yes, Mitt Romney will win Pennsylvania…a state that has teased Republicans for years. But if Pennsylvania is really a swing state and is not guaranteed to fall to Democrats every election like California or New York, then 2012 is the year that Republicans win it. If not, then we can never call Pennsylvania a swing state again and must accept it is permanently lost to the Left because of Philadelphia’s control over the state. But, since I don’t believe Pennsylvania is like California or New York…and that it has to vote for a Republican sometime…I think that Mitt Romney is probably the only Republican it would ever vote for. Barack Obama’s War on Coal and his 2008 remarks calling Pennsylvanians “bitter and clinging Midwesterners” might have been enough of a push to put Romney over the top.

Ohio is a no-brainer and is not even a swing state; it’s going for Romney because it gave Obama a chance in 2008 and he blew it. Ohioans are loving and decent people who are fair and will give an opportunity to anyone…but they will fire someone who does not deliver the goods he promised. Such is Obama’s fate in Ohio.

I gave New Mexico to Obama because I looked back on past elections and have seen that more often then not this state votes Democrat, so it might be a sort of Delaware of the west. Since Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island aren’t leaving the Democrats’ column this year neither is their cousin out west. I have to admit I have never been to New Mexico and know little about life in the state; as much as I like Governor Susana Martinez and hoped she’d be able to carry the state for Romney I just don’t see evidence that her personal charm can overcome New Mexico’s tendency to be the “Delaware of the West”.

I do think Democrats lose Nevada though, because I don’t see how a state that depends so much on Las Vegas to survive can reelect the man who crippled the tourism industry in Vegas back in 2009. I enjoy reading columns by Steve Wynn, the casino magnate, and he talks about the volcanic anger towards Obama in Nevada. Minitru is putting Nevada in Obama’s column just because Harry Reid won reelection in 2010…but as noted above, read would have lost running against someone other than Sharon Angle. If you remember the focus group that Frank Luntz ran in Nevada the night of the second presidential debate you’d remember how angry people were there at Obama. How on Earth do they reelect him?

Here in Illinois, Obama’s going to win the state by the smallest margin ever for a Democrat; he’s actually going to come incredibly close to losing Illinois because enthusiasm for him is so low in Chicago’s Cook County. Democrats only win the state because they pull big numbers from Chicagoland. But I think in the end Romney will come up short in Illinois…but it will be fun to watch Democrats sweat here a little.

Final Result for the Electoral College: 322 Romney to 216 for Obama (but it could actually end up being as high as 337 Romney to 201 Obama if Minnesota and New Mexico surprise us).

***********************************************************

For the House and Senate races, the logic I am operating under is that there are few instances where vote-splitting will be happening AGAINST Mitt Romney…so I am assuming that the vast majority of people heading into voting booths will be voting for both Mitt Romney and the Republican running down ticket from him for the other races in that state. There will be some exceptions to this…and in Massachusetts I believe that Scott Brown will win his Senate race because many people will vote for him for Senate but will vote for Obama for president (because Elizabeth Warren is a much worse candidate than Martha Coakley was so I can’t understand how she’d win while Coakley lost when Brown has done nothing to alienate his 2010 voters and Coakley has done little to steal those people away from Brown).

I think that every state that Romney wins will also push the Republican to the win in that Senate race too. Therefore, I think the Senate races will look like this:

Nebraska = Republican win

Arizona = Republican win

Connecticut = Republican surprise win

Florida = Republican surprise win (I’m basing this on something oddball, and it’s that a lot of voters think that “Connie Mack” is a woman…it’s actually a man named “Cornelius Harvey LaFontaine Beardsley Hiperion McGillicuddy XVII, or something bizarre like that; so he calls himself “Connie Mack”, which makes people think he’s “that actress that used to be on Hotel in the 80s, but now she got married”. Florida is going to go to Romney and I wonder if Floridians are big vote-splitters and will back Romney for President but the Democrat for the Senate. Why would the do that? ”Connie Mack” sounds like a nice lady so why not vote for “her” with Mitt Romney? You might laugh, but I think this will really happen but no one wants to talk about it because it’s so ridiculous. The reason I believe this is happening is because I have five different friends who live in Florida but who don’t have tee-vee and all of them think “Connie Mack” is a woman. They only see “Connie Mack” written in a paper and don’t see a picture, so they assume it is a woman. I think this helps pick up the seat).

Indiana = Republican win (that garbage about abortion is not a big enough deal to vote split no matter what Minitru says)

Massachusetts = Republican surprise win

Missouri = Republican surprise win (because I don’t know how someone could vote for Romney and then agree to keep on ObamaClaire)

Montana = Republican win

Nevada = Republican win

North Dakota = Republican win

Ohio = Republican surprise win (because I don’t see Republicans vote splitting…and see no reason why Mandel would not get votes from the Romney voters in Ohio)

Pennsylvania = Republican surprise win (because Smith rides Romney’s coattails here and there’s no vote-splitting against him)

Virginia = Republican surprise win (I think people have forgiven Allen for the macaca stuff 6 years ago and see no reason to vote split against him in a state Romney will win)

Wisconsin = Republican surprise win (because I think Romney/Ryan win Wisconsin and with it the Senate seat too)

Hawaii = Republican SUPER SURPRISE win (because it’s so strange to think that Linda Lingle beat Lazy Mazie for the Governor’s race a few years ago…so why would Mazie win the Senate race this year? I think Hawaiians are vote-splitters and will vote for Obama but elect Lingle; of all these Senate races this is the one I am most on the limb with and it’s all based on the Lingle vs. Lazy Mazie gubernatorial race and the fact that Hawaiians have rejected Mazie’s attempts at higher office before, so why go with her now?). I have an 80% chance of being wrong on this Hawaii race…but I just see nothing in Lazy Mazie to make me think this latest race between her and Lingle will go differently than the last one.

Maine = Democrat pickup (though Olympia Snow was always a Democrat with an (R) after her name)

Michigan = Democrat

New Jersey = Democrat (because that prostitution scandal doesn’t affect the votes in Jersey for Menendez)

New Mexico = Democrat, only because I think Obama will win the state so why would there be vote splitting here?

Washington = Democrat, because Obama wins this state and the Senate race here

West Virginia = Democrat, because I think West Virginians vote-split all the time and have a habit of making bad choices with Senators (See: Byrd, Robert K.K.K.)

TOTALS:

That makes it 15 wins for Republicans by may count, with just 6 wins for Democrats…for a net of 9for the GOP.

I think the low end of things would be about a net of 4 or 5 for the Republicans on Tuesday, which provides for some vote-splitting in states that Romney wins but the Republican running for Senate loses for some reason. But I do believe that Republicans will control of the White House, the Senate and the House.

I’m not going to do a rundown on House numbers because I have not had time to follow all of those races closely. I do think that Romney adds seats in states that he wins and that people voting for Romney in general will vote straight down ticket as well…which could lead to a lot of surprises.

I really think Debbie Wasserman Schultz loses her seat in Congress because of how poorly she’s looked in everything she’s done in the high profile position Democrats gave her. She’s too affiliated with Obama not to lose, because I can’t imagine people voting for Romney in Florida and then vote-splitting to vote for DWS too.

Nancy Pelosi will be ousted as Minority Leader in the next Congress and will retire some time in early 2013. A special election will have to be held to replace her. Pelosi is not going to spend her last years as a former Speaker who has no power and is just another member of the herd. So expect her to be moving back to San Francisco for good around the same time the Obamas are moving to Hawaii.

Conclusion:

I do believe this is a giant wave election for Republicans and that Minitru and even conservative writers are missing that fact.

There is just no enthusiasm for Obama or Democrats…and people are tired of all the bizarre things that have happened in the last four years. I think Benghazi is a story that will only be understood in retrospect because most Americans realize Democrats are lying about what really happened there, even if they don’t understand what went down. The White House is clearly lying and Minitru is helping the White House lie…and I am surprised every day by people who know little about the news or politics who tell me “something is fishy about all that Libya stuff and Obama is lying”. This has made Democrats I know not want to bother to go vote…and it’s fired up the independents and Republicans I know to race out to vote against Obama.

We’ve never had an election where the following three things have happened before (so I think Election Night is going to be just madness):

* The Left has been assured by Nate Silver that there is an 80% chance of Obama winning so they are not mentally prepared to see a map where Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in Romney’s hands. Expect epic freakouts on MSNBC over this. And then never expect to hear from Nate Silver ever again. He will need to go into hiding like Salman Rushdie. I hope he is enjoying his last three days as a mini-celebrity.

* A great many conservative writers know Romney will win but are using the last few days before the election to terrify their readers to drive up their web traffic through fear porn. They THINK that people will be so happy that Romney wins and Republicans take the Senate that people will just forget how much they were scared before the election. I hope there are professional consequences for anyone who pushed this fear porn…but since Republicans are amnesiacs most of the time, I doubt there will be. Which is a shame, because anyone who pushed fear porn hurt a lot of good people who got scared and upset for no reason just so a few sites could make extra money by driving up their web traffic through shouts of “SHARK!” when there were no sharks in the bathtub to be scared of.

* The Ministry of Truth completely lied to the American people and didn’t care about the damage it would do to its reputation. They went all-in and broadcasted from an alternate, fictional universe in this race. What happens to them next?

This is the 2012 race as I see it in the last days of the campaign.

I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you out there who have been providing me with consistent ground reports and anecdotal intel for the last several months, because your reporting from the ground shaped my understanding of this race and led me to my conclusions. We’ll see who’s right on November 6th, but everything I have seen, heard, and read from real people directly contradicts what all the “experts” say…so I think my projection will be closer to reality than any of the Eeyores or fear porn peddlers out there.

I also want to thank everyone who has been letting me know about the latest fear porn stories and shouts of “SHARK! that they see posted online. It’s so helpful to know who is spreading this fear porn and what they are saying. I tried to use this essay to counter most of it, but if I missed anything please chime in below and tell me and I will address it in the follow up tomorrow. There is no reason to be afraid, because we are going to win BIG.

Nate Silver, on the other hand, might be applying to Arby’s soon because that prediction model of his is cuckoo and the Democrats who buy his fairytale are the ones that need to be afraid of what’s to come on November 6th.

CHIME IN BELOW WITH YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE ABOVE.

What am I getting wrong?

Go ahead and tell me what you really think. Because the risk in putting a projection/prediction together is that after Election Night nasty trolls will want to rip me apart no matter what, since I’m human and none of us can be exactly right on anything. But I think I’m picking up on trends that others are missing…and I also think that things are going to roll our way this time, because this is the year that will happen (if it’s ever to happen at all).

On Election Day, I’m going to camp out in front of a live stream of MSNBC and do rolling historical coverage of the results and what the MSNBC talking heads in particular are saying. I think I’m going to start at about 10am on the 6th and will go through the late evening after Romney wins covering everything that’s being said. I am going to get a honey baked ham for Justin and myself and will be making some other treats that remind me of Wisconsin, Michigan, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Utah. I think it’s just going to be Justin and myself and maybe a few other friends, but I hope you will join us here on HB from time to time throughout the day to see how close our predictions come to reality.

I think I will be much more right than wrong, though…and I think I’ve called more than a few things that will be “surprises” to everyone else.


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1 posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:03 AM PST by COUNTrecount
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To: COUNTrecount

Obama wins Oh causing the media to call the election but Romney wins WI and CO late in the night to win the election.

Akin wins in MO and is the 51st GOP Senator


2 posted on 11/04/2012 7:02:54 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: COUNTrecount

You are right on the mark!!! Obama will lose the POTUS, being defeated by a landslide victory for Romney/Ryan and the entire Republican Party. The Republican Party will own the majority of governorships, The US Senate and US House!!! I predict the popular vote will goes as follows: Romney/Ryan 57%, Obama/Biden, 40%, others 3%. Note: Obama/Biden will only carry about eight to twelve states.

The real hit will be on pollsters and the Obamabot media who will look like buffoons and political deadbeats across the board.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 7:04:10 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: COUNTrecount

“…and so conservative writers play with their emotions to generate web traffic, counting on there never being any professional consequences for doing this. I really hope you’ve learned some lessons from all the “fear porn” churned out this election at various conservative sites and will ask questions starting November 7th about why any of these guys decided to freak you out over Ohio needlessly.”

Believe me, I’ve added a lot of these clowns to my bucket list of people that I will not be reading ever again.

There are a lot of posters on FR too that have astonished me by how shamelessly they just meltdown over the smallest stuff. Some of them think that it’s all going to be a-ok and that everyone will just “understand” why they were so “scared”. Pfffft!


4 posted on 11/04/2012 7:05:22 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: COUNTrecount

Bold - Linda Lingle is interesting - no one’s taken any polls in HI lately and no one likes Lazy Mazie. It doesn’t seem to “catch.” So I do see this as a “wave” election.

Let’s enjoy Minitru’s propaganda for now. :)


5 posted on 11/04/2012 7:06:40 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

whats really bad is that old Harry will still be ML in the Senate and nothing will get done. He already said he would not help MR in any way.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:53 AM PST by LittleMoe
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To: COUNTrecount

I don’t know if the Senate is still in play. But it is hard to imagine Ohio for Obama while he’s losing ground in Pen and Wis.

I think there’s going to be trouble on Tuesday, I anticipate Black on white violence and blacks suppressing votes.

Bottom line is Romney gets an instant 5% jump Tuesday morning and wins all but 1 of the so called swing states, and then takes a surprise state that was considered pretty solid for Obama.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 7:11:13 AM PST by Usagi_yo
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To: COUNTrecount

Interesting read. I agree with most except that we take the senate. I see the dims maintaining a 1 vote majority


8 posted on 11/04/2012 7:12:02 AM PST by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

Praying that you are right!!!!! OH God, PLEASE , PLEASE, PLEASE rid us of Obama’s hold!


9 posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:01 AM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: COUNTrecount
Great article. Minor point, but

sending a matinee idol to the White House in 1980

This bit has always bothered me, and even people on the right concede it as a way to placate the left. Reagan was an extremely successful two-term governor of the biggest state in the union, who also did some acting in his past.

10 posted on 11/04/2012 7:16:11 AM PST by scottinoc
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To: COUNTrecount
I believe there is a distinct possibility that, like Hugo Chavez, Ubama will be reelected despite overwhelming evidence that the popular vote is against him. Never underestimate the ability of Alinskyites to cheat.

This would explain why Ubama has been preparing to institute martial law, namely to quell the unrest that would occur if the election were brazenly stolen.

11 posted on 11/04/2012 7:20:54 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: COUNTrecount

Recapping Senate:

GOP keep: AZ, IN, MA, NV; GOP lose: ME
DEM keep: MI, MN, NJ, NM; DEM lose: CT, FL, HI, MO, MT, ND, NE, OH, PA, WI, VA
GOP Net 10

I’d say CT, HI and MA are 50-50 b/c they require ticket-splitting in a “wave election,” with HI only getting to 50-50 b/c the call of the Presidential will depress DEM turnout in that state
NM - I’d add GOP potential in both Pres and Sen hurt by strong third choices
GOP Net 7 to 10


12 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:16 AM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: COUNTrecount

An interesting article, and the potential for meltdown is attractive.

I have to disagree vociferously with the author on one critical point, however:

The McRib is NOT a fad.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 7:22:16 AM PST by Little Pig (Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici.)
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To: COUNTrecount

I think you are correct. Romney coat tails will help the GOP retake the Senate and add to the house, thus helping Romney not having to reach across the aisle.

Romney needs to remember all of the vile stuff the democrats have said about him and play hardball when he gets to the white house.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:03 AM PST by Psycho_Runner (I never voted for change, I prefer folding money.)
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To: Little Pig

Barry Obama=America’s FAILED Pet Rock


15 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:31 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't fail.)
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To: COUNTrecount
Since my birthday falls on election day this year, this scenario would be the best birthday present I could hope for. However, while I do think Romney will win in the end, I am less optimistic about the GOP gaining the Senate. Warren the phony Indian will probably win in Massachusetts due to unions pulling out all the stops. I hope for Akin to win in Missouri, but the lack of GOP support may cost him in a close race. Nebraska could be a close Senate race too. Minnesota will continue to have dumb and dumber for their Senators. The House will stay in GOP hands.

If the Senate is still held by Democrats, there will be no immediate repeal of Obamacare and efforts will have to be made to defund it piece by piece. The truth about Benghazi will come out and it will be revealed that Obama himself made the decision to not send aid or that he listened to Valerie Jarret's advice to do so. While too late to influence the election, Obama will be castigated and there will probably be civil charges filed against him by family members for wrongful death. I also expect that the Obama's will divorce as Barry cannot provide the Marie Antoinette lifestyle Michelle now expects.

16 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:18 AM PST by The Great RJ
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To: JLAGRAYFOX
I agree with you. Between Michael Barone's analysis and DuJan's feelings on the ground, along with Romney's air of victory and Obama's flopsweat, we're seeing a bloodbath for the Democrats.
17 posted on 11/04/2012 7:26:25 AM PST by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: COUNTrecount

I concur with this prediction.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:07 AM PST by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
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To: COUNTrecount

I hope Rush (and the bench) take a good look at this. I like it. I would like to have two solid days of Right-leaning talk radio discussing something like this instead of the near panic, high-pitched “the zombies are coming” rhetoric we’ve been listening to. Hannity is beyond being able to take. It’s ridiculous. Except for the duty of poll watching and driving people to the polls, we’ve done all we can do with a voice of reason. Romney is a giant compared to most individuals. He will be our Atlas and won’t shrug. If America wants the hip hoppin celebrity of the modern day Bonnie and Clyde now in our White House, we will have to find a way to rebuild portions of our country to our liking and start anew. Our beloved red Texas will probably be a blue state within the next decade as decline spreads eastward from California and the automatic Latino vote soars. Latinos don’t look at voting as being for the best candidate. They think they’re on a soccer team. Team! Team!


19 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:24 AM PST by FryingPan101 (2016 looms)
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To: FryingPan101

Rush has mentioned Kevin DuJan and http://hillbuzz.org/ on

his program, he is aware of the site.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 7:29:33 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't fail.)
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To: COUNTrecount

The correlation between vote for Governor and vote for President is much lower than vote for US Senator and vote for President.

(Consider Romney himself, William Weld, et al. (won Gov., lost Senate in a Dem state ...also say Jim Gehringer in Wyoming...I don’t think he ran for Senate though.)

So I’m not betting on Lingle.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 7:33:20 AM PST by scrabblehack
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To: COUNTrecount
The count continues...3 more days!


22 posted on 11/04/2012 7:43:24 AM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: COUNTrecount

Lots of interesting angles in this piece.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 7:45:11 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: COUNTrecount

I love hillbuzz.org and Kevin and so does Rush. He jokes and calls them the ‘gals’ at hillbuzz. Yes, they are gay and that does not matter to me


24 posted on 11/04/2012 7:46:38 AM PST by MadelineZapeezda (Where's yo dollah ?????)
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To: Psycho_Runner

The Republican majority leaders also need to play hardball;their history is of caving and crying.Gingrich is the only Republican Congressial leader to really push the conservative way.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 7:51:39 AM PST by hoosierham (Freedom isn't free)
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To: COUNTrecount
When PA goes to Romney early in the evening, it's going to be declared “IT'S OVER” by our leftist media friends.

Where's Katie Couric going to be on Tuesday night? I want to see her cry those very-objective-crocodile journalistic tears again.

You can then go watch that DVD movie or TV show you recorded on the DVR but have put off watching because of all the NOT-FOXNEWS-NETWORK (NFN) suppression efforts by all the other media...

Enjoy the movie. Don't forget the popcorn.

26 posted on 11/04/2012 7:51:39 AM PST by detch
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To: COUNTrecount; All
all in all; I agree...R/R wins by 5%...
GOP maintains control of House..

NAZI Pelosi loses her "smirk"...hits the Botox
GOP +4 senate / controls senate;
Dirty REID...loses his "mob" protection/connections..

ABCNNBCBS are bewildered..shocked..
(Drunk) Chrissy Mathews; hits the Bottle/Drugs hard..
Wholesale (stable :) cleansing of msNBC begins


27 posted on 11/04/2012 7:57:06 AM PST by skinkinthegrass (Anger a Conservative by telling a lie; Anger a Liberal by telling the truth. - RWR 8-)
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To: detch

I’m a glutton for REVENGE.............I plan to watch the Ministry of Truth try to make sense of how their four years of evil propaganda has been blown up by the Silent Majority.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:21 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't fail.)
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To: COUNTrecount
and in Massachusetts I believe that Scott Brown will win his Senate race because many people will vote for him for Senate but will vote for Obama for president (because Elizabeth Warren is a much worse candidate than Martha Coakley was so I can’t understand how she’d win while Coakley lost when Brown has done nothing to alienate his 2010 voters and Coakley has done little to steal those people away from Brown).

I'd like to believe you're right about Scott Brown, but here are the weak points:

1. The Democrats never thought they'd ever lose the "Kennedy Seat", so they didn't take his candidacy seriously enough in 2008. They'll do anything to get this seat back (hence millions in out of state donations).

2. Scott Brown remains extremely popular, with a favorability rating that usually guarantees reelection, but the argument that appears to be working for the democrats is that this is the seat that could give republicans control of the senate. I heard on a radio talk show last week a caller actually say that they would vote for Brown if he had a "D" after his name, but are concerned about the republicans getting the senate.

Union members have been threatened with fines if they don't vote Warren. The hope is that many union members pretend they will vote for Warren, but when they get in the booth will vote for Brown. This would not be unprecedented. In 2008, union members holding signs for Coakley came up to Brown and told him that they were getting paid to hold the signs, but would be voting for him.

Bottom line is that the polls would have to be way wrong for Brown to get re-elected.

29 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:31 AM PST by BlatherNaut
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To: Caipirabob

GREAT graphic! LOL!


30 posted on 11/04/2012 8:01:02 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't fail.)
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To: COUNTrecount

If DuJan’s prediction pans out, the next thing - right beside clearing Obama’s national trainwreck - must be to see to it that these people *never* become a threat again. If that means locking them up, so be it.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 8:03:33 AM PST by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (I will fear no muslim))
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To: COUNTrecount

I had to share when I found it... and SO appropriate - lol!


32 posted on 11/04/2012 8:08:01 AM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: BlatherNaut

The answer to those who say we would vote for him if he was a democrat is, you should vote for him because he is a Republican. Otherwise, why should President Romney and the Republican Congress do anything for Massachusetts if there aren’t any Republicans fighting for us.


33 posted on 11/04/2012 8:10:29 AM PST by Betty Jane
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To: MadelineZapeezda

DuJan is one of the best analysts there is, and a sterling journalist on the ground to boot.

Exactly what the press is meant to be.


34 posted on 11/04/2012 8:11:32 AM PST by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (I will fear no muslim))
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To: Lazamataz; All

Someone needs to photoshop ‘Bronco Bamma’ riding the Dem jackass off into the sunset.


35 posted on 11/04/2012 8:12:40 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Redmen4ever

I wish you were right, but your prediction frankly is nuts. We’ll be lucky to gain 2 or 3 seats in the Senate, much less 10.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 8:16:26 AM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: Caipirabob

MORE appropriate than you know!

I signed up during the 2000 Floriduh debacle when all they could do was to count and RECOUNT the votes.


37 posted on 11/04/2012 8:17:41 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't fail.)
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To: COUNTrecount

Pelosi rammed BOcare in March 2010, not May.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 8:20:01 AM PST by mwl8787
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To: scottinoc

You’re right. I think he was in politics more than movies anyhoo. Was it SAG that got him started in politics? I sure miss Ronald Reagan....we’ll never see another like him. :(


39 posted on 11/04/2012 8:23:46 AM PST by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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To: COUNTrecount

I can’t read anything from Hillbuzz with a straight face since 2008 when the ‘Millions of PUMAs’ will win the ection for McCain schtick.
They always seem quite extreme and out there...


40 posted on 11/04/2012 8:39:29 AM PST by JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain
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To: COUNTrecount; Liz; Travis McGee

I hope and pray that you are correct.

However, if this happens, we will probably see an out of control Obozo and his thugs in DC until Romney and the new congress is sworn in.

If Obozo loses big time, after he pardons all of his fellow criminals/traitors, he would issues thousands of executive orders to weaken our country even more.

Then, Obozo will resign as president the day before Romney is sworn in: .

1. When he resigns, John Roberts will swear in Biden as President.
2. Then, Biden will pardon Obozo and his cabinet members of all possible federal crimes/misdeeds like Ford pardoned Nixon. Biden will become the automatic pardon machine for the remaining rats in congress and in DC not pardoned by the former President, Obozo.

http://search.comcast.net/?cat=web&con=betac&form_submit=1&q=President+Ford+pardons+Nixon&top_SearchSubmit=

This might be the best outcome and one more reason to defeat the traitor with massive vote %’s for Romney/Ryan next Tuesday after Obozo and Biden clear their rat buddies out of DC with their wide spread pardons.


41 posted on 11/04/2012 8:49:51 AM PST by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: COUNTrecount
I suspect that this will be just like 2000, with a RINO in the White House and "Republicans" nominally in control of the Senate. At best, conservatives will be facing a RINO/Crat majority. However much better such an outcome is than the alternative, it will be very difficult to get anything substantive done and conservatives will get the blame.

I wish I could see something different, but I don't expect much with Romney "reaching across the aisle."

42 posted on 11/04/2012 8:52:14 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Islam offers us choices: convert or kill, submit or die.)
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To: COUNTrecount

I think we’ll gain 3-5 seats in the house-—IA, for ex., has a surprise, and I think Tsei in MA will win.


43 posted on 11/04/2012 8:52:57 AM PST by LS
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To: FryingPan101

We need to stop this cultural decline locally starting Nov 7. I had lived in Texas for 25 years, then moved back to my native CA for 15 years, couldn’t take it anymore and just recently moved back to TX. When I hear predictions that TX will be Dem soon it terrifies me and I will do anything I can to prevent that from happening. They completely ruined CA and OR.


44 posted on 11/04/2012 8:53:47 AM PST by Rusty0604
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To: jpl

>>I wish you were right, but your prediction frankly is nuts.

I doubt you are competent to judge anybody’s sanity.

In view of what follows, I’m moving NM into the 50-50 category. As I mentioned in my terse run-down of Senate races, our candidate in NM is handicapped by a strong indie (from the right-wing). This poll suggests support for the indie has shifted to her. In contrast, support for Gary Johnson in the Presidential has not shifted to Romney. NM could go Democratic for President and Republican for Senate.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/new_mexico_senate_race_memo_110212.html


45 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:57 AM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: COUNTrecount
I sure hope this is correct. Whatever happens in the election, we will still have a lot of work cut out for us. Keeping the politicians in line, and upholdding the Constitution.

Let’s roll!

46 posted on 11/04/2012 9:09:15 AM PST by cvq3842 (Thanks for all responses, and flames, in advance.)
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To: Usagi_yo
I think there’s going to be trouble on Tuesday, I anticipate Black on white violence and blacks suppressing votes.

Just wait till the elction is called for Romney. They will be burning down their own neighborhoods.

Oh well.

47 posted on 11/04/2012 9:10:13 AM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: hoosierham

The house really needs to elect Gingrich as speaker.

You do not have to be a member of congress to be speaker.


48 posted on 11/04/2012 9:25:10 AM PST by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: Redmen4ever

I didn’t say YOU are nuts, I said your prediction is nuts. No serious analyst who does this kind of thing full time is predicting we will pick up anything close to this number of seats.

You are predicting a massive “wave” kind of election, when every indicator out there clearly points to an extremely close, 50-50 kind of election similar to 2000 and 2004. Looking at life through rose-colored glasses does no favors to yourself or anyone else.


49 posted on 11/04/2012 9:31:27 AM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: COUNTrecount

God’s mercy is greater than all of our sin. Thank you Jesus for your love and goodness. Thanks for once more raising our country up to once again to be a light of freedom and a spiritual light of God’s grace to the world.


50 posted on 11/04/2012 10:10:49 AM PST by PapaNew
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