Skip to comments.Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House,Republicans take Senate.
Posted on 11/04/2012 6:55:53 AM PST by COUNTrecount
click here to read article
Bookmarking in case of epic fail.
If there’s an epic fail tomorrow than we are all in Venezuela.
Obama will claim a mandate for his "fundamentally transforming" vision even if he wins by one electoral vote.
If Romney wins PA, I hope I have the privilege of seeing Chris Matthews try to explain it.
Chrissy will claim that there was a massive wave of vote fraud by the GOP! Either that or Romney bought the election with all his money which of course he only has because he has not paid his “fair share”.
Great, great prediction on all those Senate seat pickups there, pal. You were so close! And your reasoning and methodology to back it up were so sound, I don’t know how anyone could ever have possibly doubted your prognosticating brilliance.
On the basis of straight-tciket voting, the Republicans in blue states lost. Also, the Republicans in battleground states lost by Romney also lost. Did any of them outperform Romney? I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. If any would have outperformed Romney in the battlegrounds, I would think that would be Tommy Thompson. But, no, not even Thompson outperformed Romney in the battlegrounds. So, the theory of straight-ticket voting condemned them all. This actually supports the argument that, had Romney won, the theory of straight-ticket voting would have helped them all.
Now consider the only two deviations from the assumption of straight-line voting, Republican losses in the red states of Indiana and Missouri. Even in these cases, the third party vote was significant, although not decisive.
Things changed during Hurricane Sandy. The change was masked by the suspension of the Gallup Poll.
After the suspension of the Gallup Poll, Romney’s lead in Gallup and Raz fell to only 1 point. This was because Obama’s standing with the public strengthened during the suspension.
In contrast, during the same period, Obama’s lead in the media-sponsored national and state polls fell to 1 point or so. But, how could the President’s standing with the public have fallen during that period? His standing didn’t fall. His standing with the public increased. The bias in the media-supported polls was removed.
A dramatic turn-around of the election. The October surprise was a November surprise and was an Act of God.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.