Great, great prediction on all those Senate seat pickups there, pal. You were so close! And your reasoning and methodology to back it up were so sound, I don’t know how anyone could ever have possibly doubted your prognosticating brilliance.
On the basis of straight-tciket voting, the Republicans in blue states lost. Also, the Republicans in battleground states lost by Romney also lost. Did any of them outperform Romney? I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. If any would have outperformed Romney in the battlegrounds, I would think that would be Tommy Thompson. But, no, not even Thompson outperformed Romney in the battlegrounds. So, the theory of straight-ticket voting condemned them all. This actually supports the argument that, had Romney won, the theory of straight-ticket voting would have helped them all.
Now consider the only two deviations from the assumption of straight-line voting, Republican losses in the red states of Indiana and Missouri. Even in these cases, the third party vote was significant, although not decisive.
Things changed during Hurricane Sandy. The change was masked by the suspension of the Gallup Poll.
After the suspension of the Gallup Poll, Romney’s lead in Gallup and Raz fell to only 1 point. This was because Obama’s standing with the public strengthened during the suspension.
In contrast, during the same period, Obama’s lead in the media-sponsored national and state polls fell to 1 point or so. But, how could the President’s standing with the public have fallen during that period? His standing didn’t fall. His standing with the public increased. The bias in the media-supported polls was removed.
A dramatic turn-around of the election. The October surprise was a November surprise and was an Act of God.