Posted on 11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST by Red Steel
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinion
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
Yup, If people really decided to vote for Obama because
he took a photo op after a hurricane... Then we were doomed no matter what because that’s just absurd. The culture is essentially dead as people now are guides by manipulated media images and facades instead of their own reason (see the results of the past 4 years).
You hit the nail on the head. If our culture will vote to reelect this fiscal pariah on the basis of photo ops then we are doomed. There is not one sound reason an intelligent voter should vote for him. Just suck it in and learn the Greek national anthem!
This kind of wishful thinking, bunker mentality was our downfall in 2008. I don't think it is prudent to disregard Pew - it was one of the most accurate polls from 2008.
It seems clear that Romney will need some special boost to overcome what seems like a comfortable victory scenario for 0.
Lets not fool ourselves - 0 is ahead and winning at this point. Romney's options are narrowing. He could still pull it off, but it will be very difficult...
I just love that 47 number for obama in the unskewed polls. Kind of prophetic, isn’t it?
That’s right and Pew has been something like plus 13 dems all season long
The only serious excitement I've seen over obama has been over at DUmmy land. Most of the media coverage is stretching everything in order to paint a better picture than what really exists for obama.
I don't think I'm willing to make ANY prediction... but I see little obama support in my own little circle of the country (Indiana).
the whole howard dean incident prompted me to completely ignore polls of any kind since then.
I keep my head on straight, politely correct misinformation and lies when I can, then I go vote and hope for a positive outcome.
Experience has shown me that conservative voters aren't nearly as vocal and outspoken and liberals. Sure, we have our own outspoken groups, but nothing nearly on the scale of the modern whining liberal. Conservatives are more prone to quietly observe and vote the same way... that's why I don't think I can ever weigh any poll seriously. There is always that silent mass of conservatives out there and I hope they always stay informed and vote based on actual facts instead of all the campaign BS and hitjobs.
Unfortunately, this is going to be a close election and it is not going to be decided by any facts OR character, it's going to be decided by turnout. Hell, obama could come out and declare that he is in fact a card-carrying member of NAMBLA and the Nazi party and his voter base wouldn't shrink by even one.
A poll of ADULTS 2 DAYS OUT... man these rats are desperate for the BIG MO THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE!
LLS
If you think that its really D+6, Pew might be right.
No one else thinks its going to be that high.
And if you judge how the campaigns are performing, the edge goes to Romney.
Sure, Pew had an enviable track record in the past but this poll is way off.
If you buy into the assumption this is 2008 all over again, then of course Obama wins.
I just think the data is bad on this one and its an outlier. All the other polls show the race tied and O is under 50% in them.
I feel this is a silly question, but what is the rationale behind asking (landline respondents) for the “youngest adult” at home?
PU must have had a spare bottle of Zogby sauce stored in the pantry for this one.
Dims love to sway elections by showing their candidate breaking at the end.
I didn't read the article so thanks for pointing that out. There is no honest polling anymore.
Yup. The gender gap doesn’t really matter.
Single women vote liberal, married and divorced women tend to vote conservative.
I think Gallup is going to release its final poll tomorrow which will include Thurs-Sun, all days well after the photo-op & during the NY/NJ chaos. Lets see if Gallup shows an uptick for O
Personally, it’s going to come to turnout & ground game. Only hard-core Ds are excited about the prospect of another Obama term. Go into a swing district & you can count the # of Obama bumper stickers on one hand. That was not the case in ‘08. It was status back then in those districts to sport an O sticker.
Pew was only accurate in 2008 because they skewed their polls in anticipation of a huge Democrat turn out and it actually happened.
All the polls you’re seeing now are counting on a 2008+ Democrat turn out. Early voting numbers across the board indicates it’s not going to happen. The polls I assume you’re looking to reach the conclusion that Obama is somehow winning also indicate Republicans are way more likely to turnout. The .huge Democrat turn out is not happening.
Look at messages. Obama is hammering the Tea Party trying to turn out his base in order to avoid down ticket disaster.. Hardly confident.
The entire election is being fought in blue states Obama should already have won.
Your conclusion Obama is winning is ridiculous on it’s face. Obama got a small bump from Sandy that is now evaporating. Not sure where you get your news.....methinks MSNBC.
You are right, but people don't want objective right now. Folks just want to hear good news - and you can't really blame them 2 days from an election.
The reality is that Pew's election forecasts are almost dead on accurate. In 2004 they predicted Bush 51 Kerry 48 which was almost perfect. In 2008 they had it Obama 52 McCain 46 which was almost nearly right on the mark. This poll shows Obama winning narrowly. That, I suspect, will be the likely result Tuesday. Romney might still pull this out, but it looks like Obama just got too much of a bump from hurricane Sandy for Mitt to overcome.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
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