Posted on 11/05/2012 6:39:32 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Monday, November 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.
Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking poll tonight and release the results early Tuesday morning. Later today, we will issue our final swing state polls including Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Since mid-September, after the convention bounces faded, the candidates have generally been within three points of each other on a daily basis. Heading into the first presidential debate, Obama had a slight edge. After that debate, Romney had the advantage. For a few days in late October, Romney reached the 50% level of support and opened a modest lead. But the candidates have been tied or within two points for each other for the past eight days. See daily tracking history
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
For an incumbent polling at 48% the day before the election is not a good sign. An incumbent should be at least over 50% to have a chance of re-election.
Scott is predicting the winner of the election with this poll. But I think margin of victory is going to be larger for Mitt.
Obama, according to these crosstabs, gets 13% of the conservative vote? Horse dung.
Notice also that the “strong” responses, both approve and disapprove, are going way up.
I don't know, but it's a very good question.
Between Slick, 0 and Moochelle, do ANY of them still hold their law licenses?
Yup.
What I saw these last two days in Romney is a happy man having the time of his life and he’s enjoying it enormously and win or lose - no one can take it away from him!
Sure, victory will be the sweet icing on the cake but there are moments like this in your life where you just get to have fun.
Romney is not taking this election too seriously and that’s a great thing to see in a human being. He’s run a terrific campaign and that’s something that will stay with him for the rest of his life!
OHIO FYI:
After polls close, Ohio will begin the evening by releasing the results of absentee ballots it received before election day, around 8:30 p.m. About 1.3 million absentee ballots have been sent out to voters — and about 72% have already been cast.
Though those absentee votes may imply the election is going one way, those results could be completely turned around over the next few hours as results from in-person voting come in. The secretary of state’s office will release results from big counties every 15 minutes, medium-size counties every 30 minutes and small counties every hour.
If the election is close, America will have to wait 10 more days for the final results. Ohio has a law that stipulates that the secretary of state must wait 10 days before counting provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots. All absentee ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 5 to count.
An automatic recount can’t happen until Nov. 27, and is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008).
I heard you the first time.
There’s no way in the world the Democrats will have a +7 turnout advantage, which is how some polls have been weighted.
I think Romney wins a landslide.
Agreed on both points. Several months back I was voting against Obama, but I'll be darned if Romney hasn't won me over. His speeches are downright Reagan-esque, with no apologies for America and her greatness. How he'll govern remains to be seen, but I'm certainly voting FOR Mitt Romney now.
I know that CNN and Rass are different polls, but 12% just does not pass the smell test. That is 1 out of 8 republicans. They would likely be RINOs and we all would have heard them by now. Both the MSM would be highlighting them and the chair’s campaign would have showcased them at rallies with “Republicans for Obama” signs, shirts, etc. THAT AIN’T HAPPENING.
I know that Scott is the most accurate pollster out there but I don’t see 12 % of republicans voting that way. The only “republican” endorsing the chair is Powell......and we all know that he is not a republican.
It would help if the lamestream media would show the suffering folks in NY and NJ. Only Fox News pays any attention to the continuing nightmare of Hurricane Sandy.
That Obama could gain on Romney because of his bear hug with Stan Laurel should be put in Ripley’s Believe It Or Not.
That is definitely an alarm sign for the poll itself.
Does anyone know how the pollster account for geography? As in, a Georgia republican is a lot different than a Republican in San Francisco etc
One also notices that The Lovely Michelle has been locked in a closet for the past several weeks.
She probably couldn’t hold back her trademark snarl....
Barry is looking quite demonic in that revenge clip......
That's a very, very good point, Crimson.
I think Andrew Sullivan said once upon a time he was a republican, didn't he? I wonder if he still does.
Then there's Colin Powell who I think was republican. Maybe there's more of those out there than I realize.
Relax folks..
I have seen NOTHING to change my thoughts on the election... I have thought from day 1 Obama will be lucky to see 42-43%.. Sandy may be the luck he needed, and perhaps that might get him a little over that but not buying for one minute its 1 or 2 point race.
Tommorrow we find out for sure.. but I don’t see this thing playing out close at all... I think that is purely wishful thinking all the way around.
Not trying to bash Ras... but I am not seeing anything remotely close on the ground where I live, and I’m in PA. Obama support has cratered, I fully expect an R+3-4 in final turnout.
Gallup doesn't weight their polls by party affiliation. There were several articles to this effect a couple weeks ago. They did release a "turnout forecast" which showed R+1 (Compared to D+8 actual in 2008). R+6 is way too optimistic. In fact, I think it will actually be around D+2 this year - but still enough to yield a substantial Romney win if he maintains his strong lead with undecideds.
That said, I am a little suspicious about Gallup suspending their polling during Hurricane Sandy. It seems more than a little convenient that they would essentially take a week off from reporting results until the day before the election. Like you said, this would allow them to "normalize" their results with the other polls without having to explain themselves.
If, however, Gallup comes in today with Romney still up 4-6 points - it will make for a very interesting afternoon!
Hi Sam,
Great comment!
I should have been clearer. By “R+6” I meant Romney+6 that Gallup was reporting and not the turnout number of Republicans over Democrats by 6
One hour to go till we find out what Frank Newport has to say
That’s what I think too. Obama will not get over 48%. I don’t care what the polls and media pundits say.
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