Skip to comments.Michael Barone's Final Prediction: Romney Beats Obama, Handily
Posted on 11/05/2012 7:13:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. Thats bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But its also true that most voters oppose Obamas major policies and consider the very sluggish economic recovery unsatisfactory Fridays job report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target-state polls show that independents voters who dont identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting and about their candidate than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
Thats been apparent in early and absentee voting, where Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.
The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? Ill go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages fully aware that Im likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (eleven electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I dont see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto-bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Clevelands Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small-town, and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who dont mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond, and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (nine). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (six). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyers remorse in a state Obama carried by ten points. Democrats traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (ten). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (four). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (six). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegass Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions turnout machine on Election Day reelected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think theyll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (ten). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Governor Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you dont see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (seven), New Mexico (five), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where theres no auto-bailout issue. Obama.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner
That means Zero is at 199
I'd also like 52/53% to 47%
47%, simply for Romneys comment that about the 47% that everyone jumped him about.
Michael Barone is the Gold Standard when it comes to political analysis. He knows the political landscape right down to the precinct level.
I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have making this prediction at this point in time.
RE: My electoral map is exactly the same as Barone’s except I also gave Minnesota to Romney. So I had Romney at 325
Don’t get me wrong, I BADLY wish you are correct, but I can’t help but ask — WHY MINNESOTA?
This is the ONLY state that did not vote for Reagan in 1984 and the state that voted for Jesse Ventura for governor and the Comedian Al Franken for Senator.
I remember Election night 2004. Susan Estritch was ranting about “people in the know” who told her that Ohio was going to Kerry. There’s Barone on his lap top data mining for votes, precinct by precinct. A magnificent bastard indeed!
1. A 2008 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed that 32.0% of Minnesotans were affiliated with Mainline Protestant traditions, 21.0% with Evangelical Protestant traditions, 28.0% with Roman Catholic traditions.
2. In 2005 the median household income in the state was $52,024, 11th highest statewide average in the nation. In contrast, 9.8% of individuals live below the poverty line, ranking 44th in the nation.
3. FROM: GLEN BOLGER RE: KEY FINDINGS MINNESOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY
DATE: NOVEMBER 3, 2012
1. The Presidential ballot in Minnesota is a dead heat. Mitt Romney has a one point lead on the ballot (46% Romney/45% Obama.).
The demographics of the state clearly make Minnesota a battleground state.
2. Mitt Romney leads Independents by double digits.
As we are seeing across the country, Romneys lead in the state is driven by Independent voters. (49% Romney/36% Obama). Due to his consistent advantage with Independents, Romney leads or is tied with President across the battleground states, even those that traditionally lean Democratic.
The Bottom Line Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority population of the state and President Obamas problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state .
NMB Research conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesota from October 30-31, 2012. Twenty percent (20%) of the interviews were conducted with cell phone respondents. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.38 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.
As you know, virtually every poll has the dems +8 (or thereabouts), but according to Rasmussen, in October the number was actually +5.8 for Republicans, which would mean that the “national polls” are potentially off by close to 14 points:
Romney will win Colorado for sure
Ohio easily Romney
North Carolina easily Romney
Florida easily Romney
Wisconsin leaning Romney but can go either way
NH up for grabs
Maine possibly some Romney Electoral College votes
*****This way I have Mitt Romney winning the Electoral College
Pennsylvania - will go for Romney if he is winning big all over
Minnesota for Romney maybe, but Pennsylvania is more likely
There are several outcomes to the election.
A) Obama wins Re-election but loses Senate. Little will change but he will face a growing hostile population. Scandals may well see him impeached or forced out.
B) Obama Wins and retains control of Senate (with Biden) and we have two years a gridlock—no Budget, nothing but Obamacare. He will blame the Tea Party and GOP for this.
C) Mitt Wins but fails to take the Senate. More Gridlock and as Revenge the Democrats will not work with him and the MSM will chip away to make him look like an extremist failure.
D) Mitt wins and takes House and Senate—Things will get done but the MSM will paint all as black as possible—Few Democrats will do their best to block everything and produce gridlock.
E) The Race will be a Tie—and the nation ripped by riots and division—as the House calls the Race for Mitt?
F) Obama’s people so soils the election that there will be endless recounts—and the Supreme Court will select Obama as winner—or Mitt will concede to stop the violence.
G) Obama declares the Election invalid using UN data—and will stage another in 2013?
I don’t think you are unrealistic. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow night.
(Praying it’s Romney w/ such a lead it can’t be contested!)
BUMP. Michael Barone is the best election analyst out there today.