RE: My electoral map is exactly the same as Barone’s except I also gave Minnesota to Romney. So I had Romney at 325
Don’t get me wrong, I BADLY wish you are correct, but I can’t help but ask — WHY MINNESOTA?
This is the ONLY state that did not vote for Reagan in 1984 and the state that voted for Jesse Ventura for governor and the Comedian Al Franken for Senator.
I remember Election night 2004. Susan Estritch was ranting about “people in the know” who told her that Ohio was going to Kerry. There’s Barone on his lap top data mining for votes, precinct by precinct. A magnificent bastard indeed!
1. A 2008 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed that 32.0% of Minnesotans were affiliated with Mainline Protestant traditions, 21.0% with Evangelical Protestant traditions, 28.0% with Roman Catholic traditions.
2. In 2005 the median household income in the state was $52,024, 11th highest statewide average in the nation. In contrast, 9.8% of individuals live below the poverty line, ranking 44th in the nation.
3. FROM: GLEN BOLGER RE: KEY FINDINGS MINNESOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY
DATE: NOVEMBER 3, 2012
1. The Presidential ballot in Minnesota is a dead heat. Mitt Romney has a one point lead on the ballot (46% Romney/45% Obama.).
The demographics of the state clearly make Minnesota a battleground state.
2. Mitt Romney leads Independents by double digits.
As we are seeing across the country, Romneys lead in the state is driven by Independent voters. (49% Romney/36% Obama). Due to his consistent advantage with Independents, Romney leads or is tied with President across the battleground states, even those that traditionally lean Democratic.
The Bottom Line Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority population of the state and President Obamas problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state .
NMB Research conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesota from October 30-31, 2012. Twenty percent (20%) of the interviews were conducted with cell phone respondents. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.38 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.