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NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%
Business Insider ^ | 11/05/2012 | Henry Blodget

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind

With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.

Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.

Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.

Let's go to the data...

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: convictedfelon; elections; natesilver; obama; trigtruther
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1 posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Right to the end, Silver is going down in epic flames and taking his DU’ers with him. LoL.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 9:21:36 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: SeekAndFind
I detest whoever runs that Business Insider. I tell him off at least once a week.

I stepped outside of my conservative bubble briefly last night. I had no idea the lefties were so convinced they were going to win too. Not being an Eeyore, but I was a little unnerved by it.

Then I went over to Breitbart's and they were there in all there true to form vileness. I figured if they were so sure they were winning why would they be trolling at Breitbarts?

3 posted on 11/05/2012 9:26:15 AM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: SeekAndFind

LOL!

Nate Silver’s confidence depends on an accurate reading of the 9% of the voting public who have been polled.

It says nothing about the 90% who have NOT been contacted and whose voting intentions remain unknown.

That’s a big leap to take and the pollsters are not even going that far!


4 posted on 11/05/2012 9:28:59 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

My understanding is that all Silver does is compile polls that heavily oversample Democrats.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 9:30:25 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: SeekAndFind

When Romney is declared the winner tomorrow night the first thing I’m going to post on my Facebook page for all my liberal “friends” is “Nate Silver needs to send out his resume.”


6 posted on 11/05/2012 9:32:59 AM PST by BlueStateRightist
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To: Red Steel

...”and if he doesn’t win you’ll all know you got SCROOOOOOOOD by Redneck Tea Party RACISTS and Diebold voting machines...”


7 posted on 11/05/2012 9:39:34 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

Here's Captain Cherry Pick on the Rachel Maddow show.

8 posted on 11/05/2012 9:42:39 AM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: trappedincanuckistan

close- he cherrypicks polls that figure in on his agenda....he’s gone out of his way to berate Rasmussen’s polls in the past even though the facts were on Rasmussen’s side:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/blast-from-rasmussen-past.html


9 posted on 11/05/2012 9:42:46 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 9:43:24 AM PST by RIRed
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To: BlueStateRightist

better yet- leave a post on his twitter page....


11 posted on 11/05/2012 9:45:15 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Yep. Garbage in, garbage out.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 9:45:52 AM PST by RedWhiteBlue (Mama tried)
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To: RIRed
No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
Silver isn't a pollster, he is an oddsmaker. Basically a political bookie. But i think you are right, he sees the numbers but not the influences of them. A bit of not being able to see the forest through all the trees...
13 posted on 11/05/2012 9:49:54 AM PST by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Good grief. What an incredible degree of self-delusion, which is what I think it is. I don’t think he is lying, so much as he is a rabid believer in the Communist cause.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 9:52:42 AM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: SeekAndFind

Aw man, really? 86% chance Obama will win? Jeez. I mean that’s a lot. I was gonna vote for Romney and stuff but if there’s only a 14% he’ll win, I mean, what’s the point? There’s gonna be long lines and waiting. And who knows what the weather might do. I’m so depressed. I guess I’ll just stay at home and watch TV.

NOT!

Does this guy think everyone is stupid? I saw people stand in line at Chick-fil-A for a couple of hours to buy a damn sandwich! Are all those people going to vote for Obama?

Obama shows up somewhere and 4000 people come out to see him. Meanwhile, Romney shows up at a rally and almost 30,000 people come to see him! Are those people going to vote for Obama, too?

According to this guy we should just skip the election altogether and name Obama “President for Life.”

I don’t think so.
Short of me ending up in the hospital for some reason I’m voting tomorrow.
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote. I should get to the polling station around 5:15 if I’m lucky. Then I’ll stand in line. I don’t care if I stand there until after 8. I’m voting! And nothing this ding-dong says will change that!

(And I ain’t a votin’ fer Obama!(spit))


15 posted on 11/05/2012 9:54:25 AM PST by servo1969
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To: God luvs America; All

Posted the story the other day. Turns out his crazily accurate predictions in 2008 were because Obama’s campaign was feeding him their internal polling info. They signed a confidentiality agreement. TOTAL FRAUD!


16 posted on 11/05/2012 9:55:13 AM PST by TigerClaws
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To: SeekAndFind
The primary objective of his Kool-Aid is to convince Dems that all is not lost, and they should still go to the polls.

The consequence will be that if Romney wins, there will be cries of there being an election-stealing conspiracy, leading to violence.

17 posted on 11/05/2012 9:55:34 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he

started a Swing State prediction contest.

Link here:

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1190165&page=0&f

part=all&vc=1

He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.

The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.

Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he

certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator

or numbers cruncher.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 9:58:19 AM PST by ChronicMA
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To: servo1969
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote.

I'm going to be at the poll when it opens (6:30 am in PA) and vote then. I hope to avoid the worst of the lines that way.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 9:58:51 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: riri

My daughter uses Facebook for business purposes and she showed me a sample of the angry posts from liberals today declaring that Romney is going down, big time. Many say that Romney shouldn’t bother to continue to campaign. ???

If Obama supporters are confident that O has it in the bag, why are they so angry?


20 posted on 11/05/2012 10:03:03 AM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
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