Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
GALLUP: R 49% O 48%
(Excerpt) Read more at DrudgeReport.com ...
Would like to see the differences by day. I wonder which candidate (if either) gained momentum on Saturday or Sunday. My guess is Romney did, but that is just a guess.
I know one thing. If conservatives show up and vote tomorrow. We win.
If they stay home in protest, we lose. Period.
Is this registered voters or likely voters? Gallup publishes both. If it’s likely voters, it’s bad news; if it’s registered voters, the election is in the bag for Romney.
I’m telling you, all those pollsters have got together and deicded to put it at a tie so none of them lose face. Its smells, it totally does.
Bottomline.
Romney leads in both Gallup and Rasmussen on final day. While Romney has all the enthusiasm.
Who’d you rather be? I’ll take being in the lead.
If you can GET your arms around Chris Christie you deserve something.
Gallup is almost always right, except for Dewey-Truman and Ford-Carter they’ve picked the winner:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx
This poll is probably D+2.
Gallup decided to play it safe.
If its R+1 or R+2 tomorrow, Romney should skate safely home with plenty of electoral votes to spare.
Which brings us to the main question: will this election be closer to 2008 or closer to 2010?
I’m betting it’ll be closer to 2010.
This actually mirrors the Susquehanna PA poll, which took 2 points off of Romney and added them to Obama this weekend.
I can see Obama gaining 2 points from the undecideds last week. But what could make 2 points worth of voters who had said they were voting for Romney previously change their mind? I can only assume Obama’s running effective negative ads in some states. I haven’t seen many Obama ads in PA.
To me this is close enough that an unexpected Tea Party surge could come in and close the deal for Romney. What worries me there is a last-minute surge of Obama-mania, from the braindead folks who barely even knew there was an election coming up until the last few days. If they haven’t been paying attention, they’ll go in tomorrow and just vote for the bigger brand name, Obama.
At what Romney margin DO they lose face? 1,2,3,4,5,10,any?
what do the internals tell you?
Look folks, A one percent Gallup lead is better then a tie!!! Now for the real skinny. Polls, this time around, do not mean anything. These pollsters have weighted these polls so skewed with false Democrat percentages, they are useless. There are significantly more folks that identify themselves as Republicans then there are folks who call themselves Democrats.
Simple facts: Rally Crowd size, Romney wins, Energy/Enthusism, Romney wins, voter turnout Romney wins and yes...even with the Rasmussen/Gallup numbers, Romney still wins. If fact: Lots of you naysayers are going to be dumbfounded on the positive results for Romney/Ryan tomorrow evening. I am a “demographic” fanatic....and study the numbers below the top, Romney blows Obama away!!!
And....even if that is not true.....life is going to miserable for Obama with the House remaining Pubbie and the strong possibility the Senate turning Republican. However, we will have a triple win tomorrow night of massive proportions.....so give up on the negative and...live on the positive. ABO!!! And.....should Romney not be successful, we must continue the fight. Benghasi, Libya will cripple Obama...he will be a real lame duck from day one!!!
Well the silver lining in this is that every Romney voter is going to show up on Tuesday. If Gallup still had Romney up by 5 or more, we could have some people staying home thinking Romney had it in the bag. But with a one point difference, this should fire up everybody who wants to see Obama gone.
Are most of the pollsters calling it this way because none of them has any idea what's really going on?
Or, do I smell Chris Christie smirking somewhere after he did everything he could to make Obama look good during a disaster to open the door for 2016? Hopefully, that fat sack of poop doesn't want to be anything more than Governor of NJ.
Agree that it stinks but not IMHO because they got together to rig the outcome, but rather because they are all motivated by the same thing: to tilt the results as far as possible in favor of Obama, who is their guy, but to end up with “the race suddenly tightening” enough that they will salvage their credibility for the next election cycle.
My Final: R-53%, O-46%, Others-1%
Chill!
ALL the polls are based on D+2 electorate coming out, which is why its so tight.
If its really R+1 or R+2, things begin to look dramatically different.
We won’t know how high GOP turnout is going to be! This is a turnout election and the Romney Campaign will have to get all its voters out to the polls.
The only way Romney can lose if he doesn’t attend to his GOTV operation.
Gallup has only been wrong on picking the winner twice.
Dewey over Truman and Ford over Carter.
Bulk of undecideds go to challenger.
I rather be RR than OB.
Whose bright idea was it to save Chinese Communism by importing cheap products made with slave labor?
If China were the Southern States - the Federal Gubmint would prohibit Interstate commerce; the Unions would be in an uproar and there would be a civil war!!!
There’s no way it’s like 2008 or 2010. Too many Obama-maniacs in 2008 and in a mid-term election with no “sexy” national candidate, the intelligent voters who pay attention to how politics affects their lives, a.k.a. the conservatives easily ruled the day.
This is looking much more like 2004, a close election where just one state like Ohio switching would have given the win to Kerry. I certainly wouldn’t predict beyond what Krauthammer and Hannity are saying, a narrow 270-290 Romney win.
However, I’m afraid that, just as in 2004, negativism against the incumbent won’t be enough to carry the day. The opposition party also needs a candidate they admire on his own merits. Romney was nowhere near that 3 months ago. He improved with the first debate, but did no better than treading water since then.
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