Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey

Gallup ^

[Arthurio]

November 5, 2012 Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney by the Gallup Editors

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.

[scbison]

Gallup tend understate Repubs and oversates Dems.. Final 52 to 47.

[Principled]

The two are roughly tied among independents -- 46% favor Obama and 45% Romney.

LOL

[Viennacon]

This is the Gary Johnson vote deciding Obama’s a better bet to legalize pot. We’re at 50. Looking at the historical record for challengers, I’m feeling good.

[Bridesheadfan]

We’re gonna win this thing! Are they melting down at DU yet?

[Signalman]

How can they add the 3% of undecideds to the result “proportionally” if, by definition, their resulting vote is unknown?

This is a strange poll result. Obama up by +1. No, check that, Romney up by +1. Very confusing.

[Mr. K]

The most amazing thing to me this election is that this incompetant boob even has a CHANCE

[Arthurio]

From Gallup's report:

Between Oct. 22-28 and Nov. 1-4, voter support for Obama increased by six points in the East, to 58% from 52%, while it held largely steady in the three other regions. This provides further support for the possibility that Obama's support grew as a result of his response to the storm.

If this is true, 0bama's post-Sandy surge was in the part of the country he was going to win anyway. So he wins NY by 65% rather than 58%.

[daniel885]

Among independents Obama leads 46% to 45% ?!?!?!?!

[AaronInCarolina]

Seems pretty questionable to just divide up the undecideds proportionally. Usually they break something like 2-1 for the challenger. If you divide up the 3 percent undecideds and give Romney 2 and Obama 1, then that makes it 51 - 49 .

[mrsmel]

You got that right. How can so many people, with the record of Hussein's presidency and the havoc he has wreaked, still support this anti-American usurper from nowhere? This is the unbelievable thing. The left's long march through American institutions seems to have done its job well. There is no way this election should even be close with the economy and erosion of freedom we've all seen for 4 years.

[AaronInCarolina]

Seems pretty questionable to just divide up the undecideds proportionally. Usually they break something like 2-1 for the challenger. If you divide up the 3 percent undecideds and give Romney 2 and Obama 1, then that makes it 51 - 49 .

Plus, I heard Karl Rove make the point a few days ago, that historically, the incumbent only picks up about a point from the last Gallup poll. That, again would put it at 51-49 for a Romney win.

[LS]

And, moreover, it is already fading. But you’re right, who cares if his support goes up in MA?

[BushMeister]

Not sure if VA is considered “East” or “South”. Romney needs VA, NH, and 1 EV from Maine. That’s about all he can expect from the “East”. And he would love to get PA, which would probably also be part of the “East”.

[Arthurio]

PA is considered industrial midwest.

[comebacknewt]

That would likely be enough to give us the election, but wow would it ever be close.