Posted on 11/05/2012 9:12:30 PM PST by Kleon
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...
As long as Romney is President, I don’t care what the numbers are!
I dont like this.
Would think with your turnout model a little larger Romney win. Trying to calculate the Indy split
Who cares..as long as Romney gets 270 thats what matters..everything else would be just icing on the cake
That’s exactly what a consultant I know is predicting. 285she and 50-51% Mitt win.
285 evs . Damn auto correct.
I think this map is nearly the same as Roves, except he had NH going red.
It did but they don’t do their own polling as I’m sure you know. They are just presenting an average of all the major national polls and state level polls in an “unskewed” manner. With the movement of Gallup and Rasmussen to smaller leads this doesn’t surprise me. I’ve adjusted my own expectations based upon the polls and had already felt that it would be 285 Romney. But only because I’m having pre game nerves. When I really press through my anxiety and think through all the variables that weigh in on my take I still want to say Romney 300+. Which is why I haven’t adjusted my Facebook prognostications in my private conservative chatter group. We’ll see won’t we?
If the media closing the gap is based on a false premise of making 0bama appear to be strong so that a Romney landslide would look 'funny' and cause legal action by 0bama, then the final unskewedpoll electoral count would also be inaccurate.
Garbage in, garbage out..
This is quite different than what they had out about a week ago. Damn that Chris Christie. But I will take the win!!!
This is a scary change. But, they are projecting an even electorate compared to past polls, which accounts for a closer race. I hope for an R+ turnout.
I think Romney will absolutely win Wisconsin
300+ is right, IMHO.
Evangelicals, Catholics, Mormons, Cubans, Zionist Jews, Veterans, etc...
Lotta God-fearing, USA-loving Patriots been rubbed the wrong way by this clown.
Voting is a sweet form of revenge.
Are they projecting an even turnout election or are they just saying this is what an even turnout election would look like? The latter makes more sense to me because all the polling shows a Republican enthusiasm edge (more likely to vote) and an increase in self identification which translates into a Republican turnout advantage.
Also how does this model allocate the independent vote which by all measures I’ve seen is a 10-20% Republican advantage?
unskewed, Chambers, showed a wide spread a week or two ago, but it’s been close the last few days. he may not be unskewing the enthusiasm factor, and he may be using the ‘08 model, and not the ‘10 model. so many variables they factor in. Chambers appears to be a true patriot, & he may just be making sure we’re not overconfident. Hard to understand why he’s all over the place.
I am at 300 plus
Exactly.
The polls historically give the Dems a 3 pt. advantage.
Remember how they called 2004 for Kerry on election day?
Bush II won with 286 EV’s and 50.7% of the popular votes and Kerry had 251 EV’s and 48.3% of the popular vote, despite the networks declaring him the winner before the polls closed.
Prediction:
Romney gets 289 EV’s and 51.5% of the popular vote and the liberal ninnies in the MSM cry.
Sounds like they’re hedging - this is not what their numbers indicate.
They are taking out ‘business insurance’ -> stay close to the herd, but on the right side of the herd.
They still get to say, like Ras and Gallup “well, like everyone else we missed, but hey, we identified the skew, and we picked the winner, putting us in a rare 5% of pollsters”
Meanwhile, if the world goes crazy and Obama wins, they’re only off by a a few points.
This is business insurance, same as Ras and Gallup and a lot of the rest.
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