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Post here why you believe the polls to have been wrong all along.
6 November 2012 | Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin

Posted on 11/06/2012 5:18:28 AM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

The media-inspired polls have to be cooked. So many evidences are present that people are fed up with the lies of government, the polls can NOT be accurate. More than likely, the media wants the public to follow the election through their services so they can sell advertising. A close, controversial election provides viewership and sells ads. May a little simplistic, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Nevertheless, any other outcome than what I want and the other side cheated. That's going to be the cry anyway.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: lies; obama; polls; riggedpolls; romney; vanity
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Have at it.
1 posted on 11/06/2012 5:18:37 AM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

This sums it up.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


2 posted on 11/06/2012 5:19:07 AM PST by TheRhinelander
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Pollsters knowingly over sampled Dems because they feared recriminations from the regime more than they wanted to be accurate.


3 posted on 11/06/2012 5:22:27 AM PST by .45 Long Colt
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

9% response rate.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 5:22:48 AM PST by secret garden (Why procrastinate when you can perendinate?)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I think both sides want people to believe its close to get people out to vote.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 5:23:20 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Why are we so worried about the polls. We never hear about the Italians, or the Irish. Polls this, polls that. Hey, they make great sausage and all but they are highly over rated.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 5:23:23 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
1. Tea Party
2. Mid Term Elections
3. Scott Walkers inital win
4. Scott Walkers increased majority after millions spent trying to recall
5. Chic-fil-A
6. YOU CANNOT BELIEVE THE MEDIA!!!!!

perhaps #6 should have been #1

7 posted on 11/06/2012 5:24:21 AM PST by BornToBeAmerican (Things aren't as good as they should be and its Obama's fault, the resident said)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

They are not “cooked,” per se. The info is probably accurate. It’s their assumptions about who is going to show up to vote that is likely wrong. O isn’t going to get the turn out he got in ‘08, and R is likely to get a larger turnout than McCain.


8 posted on 11/06/2012 5:24:21 AM PST by The Hound Passer
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Series: It is the attempt at including cell phones and still getting a representative sample.


9 posted on 11/06/2012 5:24:43 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

They were skewed by the aberrant 2008 numbers.
Garbage in garbage out.


10 posted on 11/06/2012 5:25:17 AM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

The constant, and accelerating, oversampling of dems and certain demographics is a dead give away of the push nature of their polls, IMO.


11 posted on 11/06/2012 5:25:21 AM PST by MortMan (Laughter is the best medicine, especially when ridiculing your enemies.)
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To: TheRhinelander

I have my doubts about the polls because I remember when the media and the polls had the republicans losing BIG TIME in 2002.

That was the year the Republicans won control of the both houses of Congress.

The day after the elections news story: “Why were the polls so wrong”?

Their conclusion was that there are less landlines and more people are using cell phones.

I also remember (I think it was 2008) when the media’s exit polls had John Kerry winning and when the final results came in and Bush won the election, the media was practically trusting the exit polls and questioning the actual voting results.

And finally this election: Over sampling democrats.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 5:26:13 AM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Raycpa

I hate Norwegians.

No particular reason. I just don’t think they should get a pass.

Bunch’a damn herring shuckers.


13 posted on 11/06/2012 5:26:13 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Look at the internals: One poll I saw this morning showed white voters. College educated males, big for Romney. Non-college males, big for Romney. Non-college females, big for Romney. College females, even. Independents, big for Romney.

Overall, Obama by 3%.

14 posted on 11/06/2012 5:26:53 AM PST by cincinnati65
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To: TheRhinelander

Correction: I meant 2004 for John Kerry vs Bush


15 posted on 11/06/2012 5:27:05 AM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: TheRhinelander

Polling has not remotely reflected reality from day one.

I fully expect R+3/4 in final turnout.

I do not and have not believed this cycle was ever close.

I live in PA and it was clear on the ground the state was in play long before the election cycle ever started yet it was consistently polling with 8+ point Obama leads and only now in the last weeks are the pollsters and pundits admitting it could be in play.

Polls just are not and have not been capturing what’s happening on the ground.

We will know in a few hours but the idea this is a squeaker is a MYTH

GOTV!! Fight like it is but nothing about this election feels like a close one.

Obama not able to draw reasonable crowds even with The Boss giving free concerts just dAys before election while Romney folks are waiting hours and turns away because the venues are full.. Etc etc etc


16 posted on 11/06/2012 5:28:31 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

oversampling of dems `which should have ended 10 days ago to preserve credibility and future business. They are still over sampling Democrats, they could give a crap

Today’s CNN poll has Ohio tied


17 posted on 11/06/2012 5:31:13 AM PST by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I’m thinking Romney wins this. Not a Reagan-type landslide but it will be a decisive victory.


18 posted on 11/06/2012 5:31:13 AM PST by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I don’t think the polls are wrong. I think we have exactly what they say we have: an extremely close, almost 50-50 race, very similar to 2000 and 2004.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 5:32:35 AM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Don't forget the: The Bradley Effect
20 posted on 11/06/2012 5:32:45 AM PST by Zakeet (Calling the Obozo/Bernack economy sluggish is an insult to slugs)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Pollsters are like their President.

They Lie


21 posted on 11/06/2012 5:32:57 AM PST by bestintxas (Anyone who votes for Obama after these 4 miserable years needs to take a mandatory citizenship test.)
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To: Raycpa

heeeee


22 posted on 11/06/2012 5:33:13 AM PST by autumnraine (America how long will you be so deaf and dumb to the tumbril wheels carrying you to the guillotine?)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

!. They didn’t factor in the Tea Party vote
2. They used a lot smaller samples of the population to get their data
3. They feared being sued by the Obama administration for seeming to be partisan, in favor of the republicans.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 5:34:07 AM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

The presidential polls are wrong.

We were told this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap with the Wisconsin Recall. 49 MINUTES after the polls closed the election was called for Walker, who won 53-46.

To all you worry warts: take a sweet trip down memory lane and watch this youtube video of MSNBC announcing how we would be up all night before knowing who won, and then having to eat crow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs


24 posted on 11/06/2012 5:34:17 AM PST by ShovelThemOut
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Because the samples are not radomly selected from the total population, they are inherently skewed. In sampling, it is required that each and every individual, whether that be a widget or a person, must have the same chance of being selected. Polls use filters to pick their individuals which means they are not doing random sampling. Saying that you need x number of samples out of y number of the total population for a 95% confidence rate without random sampling is incorrect in statistical practice. As long as there is a filter like using the results of the last sampling effort to pick individuals for a new sample the results are skewed. That’s not to say that a broke clock isn’t right twice a day. So some polsters may hit the right numbers. But then there are a lot of polls. Another factor is the use of polls to drive results later. Proplr like to be on the winning team.
25 posted on 11/06/2012 5:35:19 AM PST by dblshot (Insanity: electing the same people over and over and expecting different results.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Evangelicals have yet to vote. 22 mil voter guides were distributed. 9,000 churches, 1.6 mil. calls per David Barton on Glenn Beck yesterday.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 5:35:57 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Post here why you believe the polls to have been wrong all along.

Because the media has had its Obama knee pads on since he won the nomination over Hillary on '08.

27 posted on 11/06/2012 5:36:40 AM PST by tx_eggman (Liberalism is only possible in that moment when a man chooses Barabas over Christ.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

1. When a conservative is surrounded by liberal friends and asked by a pollster, they sometimes answer saying they’ll vote liberal, when they are a closeted conservative.
2. Over-sampling of liberals, because they are home to answer the phone.
3. Using 2008 turnout data that led to Obama’s win, instead of 2010 turnout data that led to Tea Party win
4. Pollsters asking questions that are so convoluted, the default answer is “yes” in favor of the desired outcome.

Why that may not be enough:
1. Voter fraud in favor of democrats
2. Suppression of military vote with their mostly Republican ballots not arriving in time or being counted
3. Vote machine shennanigans
4. Mail in ballot fraud by Democrats to hijack Republican voting
5. Legal maneuvers to invalidate results that favor Republicans

So polls may be biased toward the Democratic result, but fraud and theft may still enable them to win.


28 posted on 11/06/2012 5:37:15 AM PST by tbw2
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To: cripplecreek
I think both sides want people to believe its close to get people out to vote.

I think you are exactly right. I truly believe Romney wins comfortably..and the "pollsters" and "watchers" have known it all along..

29 posted on 11/06/2012 5:38:10 AM PST by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: sheikdetailfeather

Newt was on with Piers Morgan tonight and said that he believe Romney will carry both Pennsylvania and Ohio. First on Pennsylvania, he said people tend to forget that the state has a Republican governor, a Republican senator, a Republican House majority, a Republican state House and Senate and it’s coal country where they are not happy with Obama.

He also says regarding Ohio that in coal country there will be quite a few Democrat votes cast for Mitt Romney, so it can’t be taken for granted that just because it’s a Democrat vote it is an Obama vote.

He says a lot more and you can watch below:

http://www.therightscoop.com/newt-i-think-well-carry-pennsylvania-and-ohio-all-democrats-votes-wont-be-for-obama/


30 posted on 11/06/2012 5:38:10 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Oversampling of Democrats based on an 08 turnout.

They believe that the White voter is not going to turnout in the numbers to defeat the 'ethnic' voter as in 08.

That is the demographic dominating the polls.

31 posted on 11/06/2012 5:40:22 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

1. Because the thought of it makes me feel better than dealing with reality.

2. So I have an excuse when Romney loses.

3. So there is yet another useless thread to consume FR resources.


32 posted on 11/06/2012 5:41:53 AM PST by paul544
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Rush laid it out clearly yesterday. The SRM is going back to 2008 numbers and ignore the mauling the dims got in 2010, which was referendum on 0 bummer.
33 posted on 11/06/2012 5:44:34 AM PST by Arrowhead1952 ("It's better to vote for a Republican you don't know than wind up with a dim you don't like".)
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To: paul544
And you wasted bandspace with your inane comment.
34 posted on 11/06/2012 5:44:54 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: All
It is raining here in Florida. My DEMOCRAT neighbors just went to vote for Romney and Connie Mack and the man is 75 yoa. He has never voted in his life. They have been watching the Benghazi coverage, they are disgusted with Obama over Obamacare and how he sued AZ over illegals. They see no improvement in the economy and they are never voting Democrat again!! How many people are out here just like them that are not counted?
35 posted on 11/06/2012 5:45:32 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Narrative. Indiana was won by Obama in 2008, but it was excluded from all swing-state polling this year. Why? Because including Indiana would have kept the early swing-state polling within MoE. And that didn't fit the MSM narrative.

They had to have this election sewed up going in -- and thusly why you see the MSM/DemPollOrgs generate the same fake meme -- because otherwise they are going to be destroyed by Election Day turnout. You see this already happening today in Ohio where through early voting alone, Mitt has erased Bobo's 2008 margin of victory.

36 posted on 11/06/2012 5:46:33 AM PST by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Wishful thinking.


37 posted on 11/06/2012 5:47:09 AM PST by NKStarr
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To: fortheDeclaration

Just doing my part.


38 posted on 11/06/2012 5:47:20 AM PST by paul544
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

There is no doubt why the polls are all wrong.

They are working for the Obama campaign.

It’s just that simple.

The Media has been working for Obama since day one.
Soon they will have to change their tactics, from Fellating Obama to attacking Mitt Romney.

It will be an easy move for them.


39 posted on 11/06/2012 5:47:35 AM PST by Venturer
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To: cardinal4

Yesterday morning Karl Rove kind of let it slip when he said that close polls are a more effective campaign tool than a wide margin.


40 posted on 11/06/2012 5:47:51 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I can only speak for where I am, and at my location in Arlington, VA (in the heart of Obamaville), the line was already very long at 6:00 AM; about as long as it was in ‘08. At least around me, Obama’s people are definitely turning out.


41 posted on 11/06/2012 5:48:42 AM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: paul544

Look forward to posting to you when Romney wins despite the polls.


42 posted on 11/06/2012 5:48:45 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Political operatives have figured out that polls are the cheapest most cost-effective and efficient method of influencing public opinion yet. Why advertize and hope to sway someone when you can put out a poll that says what you want it to and they (even “US”) will swallow it hook, line, and sinker.

There is no validation or certification of pollsters, not even a crappy Good Housekeeping or Consumers Report.

They can lie, manipulate the data, shade it with any number of crapscience techinques designed to make the smarter among “us” think it is statistically valid, or just make the numbers up out of thin air. I can’t prove they did this - but you can’t prove the didn’t either!

By shrouding crap with science they borrow the techniques of that eminent crapscientist Algore and the Univ. of East Anglica to promote their agenda with enough “science” to fool the naive. If you wouldn’t turn to the MSM talking heads to interpret a scientific research report, why trust them to interpret statistical results of polls?

Bottom line: it’s a fraudulent business from end to end. There may be exceptions but for the most part I am convinced they manipulate data to give their clients the answer they are after and justify this manipulation with pseudoscientific BS designed to placate those who haven’t caught onto their tricks.


43 posted on 11/06/2012 5:55:13 AM PST by bigbob
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To: Raycpa

Haaahaaaaaaa..........


44 posted on 11/06/2012 5:55:13 AM PST by MagnoliaB
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
All public polls, repeat all, are crap. They're designed to tell (or sell) a specific story, and with the media polls, that story is usually "nailbiter race!" to keep interest high so there is more ad money coming in and eyeballs on the page and/or screen.

As for specifics, the turnout models are asinine -- most of them predict that Democrats will have turnout superior to their 2008 "wave election" numbers. And the only reason they do so is because they have to weight it that way to diminish the huge lead Romney has with independents.

Romney leads independents and gets enough GOP base to win this easily. I stand by my 53-45-2 popular vote and 338-200 electoral vote prediction.

45 posted on 11/06/2012 5:55:16 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: jpl
I don’t think the polls are wrong. I think we have exactly what they say we have: an extremely close, almost 50-50 race, very similar to 2000 and 2004.

I fear you are correct.

I joined FR in 2007 and read all the posts regarding how the polls were not correct and McCain was going to win. I wanted to believe those posts and even made a few myself regarding the "bad" polling. Deep down I knew in my gut that Obambi was probably going to win. This time I have a much better feeling about this election but I think it will be a nail biter down to the end.

We need EVERY Conservative and Republican to be a "broken glass" voter and crawl to the polls even if they are bleeding out. WE MUST WIN THIS or we may lose the only free country in the world. I am not being hyperbolic.

46 posted on 11/06/2012 6:01:50 AM PST by OldMissileer
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To: fortheDeclaration

Believe it or not, NOTHING would make me happier than to be wrong. I’ll even ask for a 2nd helping of crow.


47 posted on 11/06/2012 6:06:41 AM PST by paul544
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
I posted my views here. In sum, margins of error are not considered adequately, R vs. D proportions are not considered adequately, no account is take of relative enthusiasm, cell phone calls are problematical and poll averaging simply does not work well.
48 posted on 11/06/2012 6:07:31 AM PST by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

The polls are wrong because the pollsters and pundits are pulling data from 2008 when they should be looking at 2010. Also the pollsters are on the side of what is legal and lawful whereas the Obama machine and the media are living in a illegal realm where the end justifies the means. No one is looking at Obamas lawlessness and his cheating. The media knows that if they showed the true stats this race would have been over already so the lie and make it sound like a tie to fool the voter.


49 posted on 11/06/2012 6:15:05 AM PST by klimeckg ("The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.")
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I think the poster who keeps putting up that pollsters only reach 9% of people with telephones any more has nailed it.

I know our phone has been going berzerk with polls and political calls, all of which we screen using caller ID. I think it’s become an unworkable proposition but they have too much money tied-up in it to admit anything.


50 posted on 11/06/2012 6:15:20 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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