Skip to comments.Post here why you believe the polls to have been wrong all along.
Posted on 11/06/2012 5:18:28 AM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
The media-inspired polls have to be cooked. So many evidences are present that people are fed up with the lies of government, the polls can NOT be accurate. More than likely, the media wants the public to follow the election through their services so they can sell advertising. A close, controversial election provides viewership and sells ads. May a little simplistic, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Nevertheless, any other outcome than what I want and the other side cheated. That's going to be the cry anyway.
This sums it up.
Pollsters knowingly over sampled Dems because they feared recriminations from the regime more than they wanted to be accurate.
9% response rate.
I think both sides want people to believe its close to get people out to vote.
Why are we so worried about the polls. We never hear about the Italians, or the Irish. Polls this, polls that. Hey, they make great sausage and all but they are highly over rated.
perhaps #6 should have been #1
They are not “cooked,” per se. The info is probably accurate. It’s their assumptions about who is going to show up to vote that is likely wrong. O isn’t going to get the turn out he got in ‘08, and R is likely to get a larger turnout than McCain.
Series: It is the attempt at including cell phones and still getting a representative sample.
They were skewed by the aberrant 2008 numbers.
Garbage in garbage out.
The constant, and accelerating, oversampling of dems and certain demographics is a dead give away of the push nature of their polls, IMO.
I have my doubts about the polls because I remember when the media and the polls had the republicans losing BIG TIME in 2002.
That was the year the Republicans won control of the both houses of Congress.
The day after the elections news story: “Why were the polls so wrong”?
Their conclusion was that there are less landlines and more people are using cell phones.
I also remember (I think it was 2008) when the media’s exit polls had John Kerry winning and when the final results came in and Bush won the election, the media was practically trusting the exit polls and questioning the actual voting results.
And finally this election: Over sampling democrats.
I hate Norwegians.
No particular reason. I just don’t think they should get a pass.
Bunch’a damn herring shuckers.
Overall, Obama by 3%.
Correction: I meant 2004 for John Kerry vs Bush
Polling has not remotely reflected reality from day one.
I fully expect R+3/4 in final turnout.
I do not and have not believed this cycle was ever close.
I live in PA and it was clear on the ground the state was in play long before the election cycle ever started yet it was consistently polling with 8+ point Obama leads and only now in the last weeks are the pollsters and pundits admitting it could be in play.
Polls just are not and have not been capturing what’s happening on the ground.
We will know in a few hours but the idea this is a squeaker is a MYTH
GOTV!! Fight like it is but nothing about this election feels like a close one.
Obama not able to draw reasonable crowds even with The Boss giving free concerts just dAys before election while Romney folks are waiting hours and turns away because the venues are full.. Etc etc etc
oversampling of dems `which should have ended 10 days ago to preserve credibility and future business. They are still over sampling Democrats, they could give a crap
Today’s CNN poll has Ohio tied
I’m thinking Romney wins this. Not a Reagan-type landslide but it will be a decisive victory.
I don’t think the polls are wrong. I think we have exactly what they say we have: an extremely close, almost 50-50 race, very similar to 2000 and 2004.
Pollsters are like their President.
!. They didn’t factor in the Tea Party vote
2. They used a lot smaller samples of the population to get their data
3. They feared being sued by the Obama administration for seeming to be partisan, in favor of the republicans.
The presidential polls are wrong.
We were told this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap with the Wisconsin Recall. 49 MINUTES after the polls closed the election was called for Walker, who won 53-46.
To all you worry warts: take a sweet trip down memory lane and watch this youtube video of MSNBC announcing how we would be up all night before knowing who won, and then having to eat crow.
Evangelicals have yet to vote. 22 mil voter guides were distributed. 9,000 churches, 1.6 mil. calls per David Barton on Glenn Beck yesterday.
Because the media has had its Obama knee pads on since he won the nomination over Hillary on '08.
1. When a conservative is surrounded by liberal friends and asked by a pollster, they sometimes answer saying they’ll vote liberal, when they are a closeted conservative.
2. Over-sampling of liberals, because they are home to answer the phone.
3. Using 2008 turnout data that led to Obama’s win, instead of 2010 turnout data that led to Tea Party win
4. Pollsters asking questions that are so convoluted, the default answer is “yes” in favor of the desired outcome.
Why that may not be enough:
1. Voter fraud in favor of democrats
2. Suppression of military vote with their mostly Republican ballots not arriving in time or being counted
3. Vote machine shennanigans
4. Mail in ballot fraud by Democrats to hijack Republican voting
5. Legal maneuvers to invalidate results that favor Republicans
So polls may be biased toward the Democratic result, but fraud and theft may still enable them to win.
I think you are exactly right. I truly believe Romney wins comfortably..and the "pollsters" and "watchers" have known it all along..
Newt was on with Piers Morgan tonight and said that he believe Romney will carry both Pennsylvania and Ohio. First on Pennsylvania, he said people tend to forget that the state has a Republican governor, a Republican senator, a Republican House majority, a Republican state House and Senate and its coal country where they are not happy with Obama.
He also says regarding Ohio that in coal country there will be quite a few Democrat votes cast for Mitt Romney, so it cant be taken for granted that just because its a Democrat vote it is an Obama vote.
He says a lot more and you can watch below:
They believe that the White voter is not going to turnout in the numbers to defeat the 'ethnic' voter as in 08.
That is the demographic dominating the polls.
1. Because the thought of it makes me feel better than dealing with reality.
2. So I have an excuse when Romney loses.
3. So there is yet another useless thread to consume FR resources.
They had to have this election sewed up going in -- and thusly why you see the MSM/DemPollOrgs generate the same fake meme -- because otherwise they are going to be destroyed by Election Day turnout. You see this already happening today in Ohio where through early voting alone, Mitt has erased Bobo's 2008 margin of victory.
Just doing my part.
There is no doubt why the polls are all wrong.
They are working for the Obama campaign.
It’s just that simple.
The Media has been working for Obama since day one.
Soon they will have to change their tactics, from Fellating Obama to attacking Mitt Romney.
It will be an easy move for them.
Yesterday morning Karl Rove kind of let it slip when he said that close polls are a more effective campaign tool than a wide margin.
I can only speak for where I am, and at my location in Arlington, VA (in the heart of Obamaville), the line was already very long at 6:00 AM; about as long as it was in ‘08. At least around me, Obama’s people are definitely turning out.
Look forward to posting to you when Romney wins despite the polls.
Political operatives have figured out that polls are the cheapest most cost-effective and efficient method of influencing public opinion yet. Why advertize and hope to sway someone when you can put out a poll that says what you want it to and they (even “US”) will swallow it hook, line, and sinker.
There is no validation or certification of pollsters, not even a crappy Good Housekeeping or Consumers Report.
They can lie, manipulate the data, shade it with any number of crapscience techinques designed to make the smarter among “us” think it is statistically valid, or just make the numbers up out of thin air. I can’t prove they did this - but you can’t prove the didn’t either!
By shrouding crap with science they borrow the techniques of that eminent crapscientist Algore and the Univ. of East Anglica to promote their agenda with enough “science” to fool the naive. If you wouldn’t turn to the MSM talking heads to interpret a scientific research report, why trust them to interpret statistical results of polls?
Bottom line: it’s a fraudulent business from end to end. There may be exceptions but for the most part I am convinced they manipulate data to give their clients the answer they are after and justify this manipulation with pseudoscientific BS designed to placate those who haven’t caught onto their tricks.
As for specifics, the turnout models are asinine -- most of them predict that Democrats will have turnout superior to their 2008 "wave election" numbers. And the only reason they do so is because they have to weight it that way to diminish the huge lead Romney has with independents.
Romney leads independents and gets enough GOP base to win this easily. I stand by my 53-45-2 popular vote and 338-200 electoral vote prediction.
I fear you are correct.
I joined FR in 2007 and read all the posts regarding how the polls were not correct and McCain was going to win. I wanted to believe those posts and even made a few myself regarding the "bad" polling. Deep down I knew in my gut that Obambi was probably going to win. This time I have a much better feeling about this election but I think it will be a nail biter down to the end.
We need EVERY Conservative and Republican to be a "broken glass" voter and crawl to the polls even if they are bleeding out. WE MUST WIN THIS or we may lose the only free country in the world. I am not being hyperbolic.
Believe it or not, NOTHING would make me happier than to be wrong. I’ll even ask for a 2nd helping of crow.
The polls are wrong because the pollsters and pundits are pulling data from 2008 when they should be looking at 2010. Also the pollsters are on the side of what is legal and lawful whereas the Obama machine and the media are living in a illegal realm where the end justifies the means. No one is looking at Obamas lawlessness and his cheating. The media knows that if they showed the true stats this race would have been over already so the lie and make it sound like a tie to fool the voter.
I think the poster who keeps putting up that pollsters only reach 9% of people with telephones any more has nailed it.
I know our phone has been going berzerk with polls and political calls, all of which we screen using caller ID. I think it’s become an unworkable proposition but they have too much money tied-up in it to admit anything.