Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: GO VOTE!!
Posted on 11/06/2012 5:26:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll of Election 2012 shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate. See daily tracking history.
Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking the presidents job approval rating and other topics, and new results will be updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Both candidates are viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I will post my commentary after I see the internals
At a base level, the number is the same as the good SAT for the President is still there
Final Daily RAS ping!
Scott has not released information for his PLAT members yet, but the numbers I am looking for today are:
1. Governor’s lead with Independents
2. RT/WT nationally and with Asians/Hispanics
3. Percentage of Republicans voting for the Governor
4. Gender “gap”
If You use the 2/3 Rule minus third parties Romney wins 50.5-48.0-1.5, which means he wins OH by 2-3 points. :)
Internals have not posted yet. Scott released the public numbers early
I am waiting for those and will post them on this thread along with my commentary
Even in deep Red Texas, today is our golden opportunity to crush the last vestiges of life from the state Democrat Party. Sweep them out with straight ticket voting, Texans!
A few worthless fossils of the LBJ’s rule will remain in hippie Austin, the Mexican Valley and San Antonio, and the tiny union toe-hold in the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area, but the rest of Texas, by far the BEST of Texas, should broom out as many Democrat relics as possible today. Help make history. It does matter.
Watch VA which is one of the first polls to close. A good Romney Lead will show that the poll assumptions are broken.
That is what I am hoping for.
In addition, I am hoping for a higher intensity among “R” voters.
I truly HOPE for a R:52 O:47 day
I don’t have a magical crystal ball like Nate Silver, so all I can do is analyze what I can see and then make some (hopefully) informed assumptions
12 more hours and we will know!
Two days +1, I’ll take it.. Now, off to get my revenge..
WE voted Straight R in Tarrant county in DFW
I look forward to reading it as I have with all your threads. Thanks for keeping us informed of the ups and unfortunately the downs. Clinging desperately to what has been forecasted by Krauthammer; Rove, Barnes and even Morris which I've never given credence to.
can Romney really lose if he’s up by 15 with indies?..doesn’t that pretty much tell you the mood the country?
Yes, that number will be critical. There are TWO components to that and I am waiting on the PLAT numbers to come out
1. Percentage of whites in the final turnout (higher than 74 is good news for the Governor)
2. Percentage of whites voting for the Governor (higher than 59 is good for the Governor)
My pleasure. I am waiting on Scott Rasmussen now. I am confused as to why he is delaying the internals
I would say that it would be HARD for the Governor to lose if he is up 15 with Independents. Logically does not make sense
But then again, nothing has made sense in the polls in this last week
Great tip. Also, look in the forum. There were bellweather counties posted yesterday by Ravi
I want to thank you for your daily threads and analysis. The past two weeks, your thread has been the first thing I look for every morning (once I get to work! ;o) ).
And former governor Doug Wilder declined to endorse Obama, because Obama did not kiss his ring. Wilder still has significant sway with black voters in this state, and his lack of support for Obama may make some difference.
I feel pretty good that Virginia will go for Romney.
Anyone from Nebraska and has voter guide-additional info- on judges and amendments?
I kinda dropped out of politics- lost interest - but have to vote
I’ll be glad when the concerned trolls leave this site until the next election...
friggin rain from the central to north FL
No, he can't. Even Nate Silver said as much a few years ago that you can't win while trailing among independents. This is not going to be a close election.
I know those stories are anecdotal (the switching from Obama to Romney), but they seem to be very common. I fail to see how this race is going to go against us with so many people changing their minds. There will be almost literally no one who voted McCain in 2008 who stay home or go Obama, so it is a one way migration. Add that to high motivation on our side, and I feel like this should be a lock. As many have said the past couple days, everything feels like a decisive Romney win except the polls.
Heavy rain and t-storms in Tampa Bay, Florida. Steady stream of voters at the poll. No line outside the door at this hour. Poll greeter said there was a line at 6:30AM.
Great job by Ravi, LS, perdogg & SoftwareEngineer covering the polls. The commentary here is better than anything in the MSM.
It is hard to believe that Romney won’t win seeing the internals of these polls especially the near double digit lead among independents.
My final commentary ping:
What were the “good” Sat numbers for Obama? 50-47, 51-46, 49-48?
Why don't you re-run your calculation with the only change being D/R/I = 38/38/24?
“friggin rain from the central to north FL”
That’s good. Dems will stay home, Repubs/conservatives will not let it stop them. Will increase the size of the win margin.
Born in FL, lived in Orlando & Gainesville (Naples, Miami, Miami Beach as well) but now a Virginian for 40 years....
That is actually quite easy. For each point you take off the Democrats and give to the Republicans in turnout, you would just have to add 1 point to the Gov and reduce 1 for the President
So, if we use the 87% Republicans for the Gov but with a D=R turnout, then the numbers would be R:50 O:47
However, if you use the 95% number for Republicans voting for the Gov, then the final would be R:54 O:45
THANKS A TON, SE, for all the daily posts and analysis. It's been very interesting to read.
This gender gap thing worries me too. Women make up a LOT more of the voting public these days... Seems hard to win an election if the group that votes the most, is voting for the OTHER guy.
Really... amazing dichotomy in this election. The MACRO issues scream R+4 turnout... HUGE Romney win. But, the MICRO factors seem to say "close win for Zero".
I guess... we'll find out today. I'll be watching Virginia and Philly, early
Let’s do this!!
By my back of the hand calculation, SAT was a R:49 O:49 day. So it was still quite good for the President although not as good as THU, which (by my calculation) was R:47 O:50
That is very kind of you. It has been an honor.
Let us hope for the best
We cannot expect the Americans to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving Americans small doses of Socialism until they suddenly awake to find they have Communism.
- Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev, 1959.
I agree with you. Very confusing to read these polls. I am cautiously optimistic
My original prediction was R:52 O:47
Also, thank you for the kind words
Rasmussen internals ping
VA or FL you and I know your vote will be helping in a swing state
Well I knew that. ;)
But the Freepers needed to hear it from our resident "Engineer". I actually think this is the more likely correction to the Rasmussen poll. I agree with you that his results for R's voting for Obama are just off. But I think his number for D's voting for Romney are off as well. Probably a slight edge for Romney.
So going from 86/87 to say 95/95 is not going to make any difference. But a one point swing the Rasmussen's turnout model is big.
And don't forget: Rasmussen is almost always wrong about the D/R/I. Too high on the D and too low on the R. I'm counting on that being the case this year.
We are going to win!!!!!
“The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE”
This is embarrassing—I may have to consider a sex change operation
One thing that Scott that is probably not including in his polls are “Value voters”. They include the Evangelicals and fiscal conservatives. They were not a factor in 2008 but came out in full force in 2010. They will be huge players in today’s outcome.
Ha! Ha! Thank you for the kind words.
I did not mean for my post to come off the way it did.
My point was that if anyone wants to do a back of the hand calculation as to what RAS number would be on any kind of turnout, just add a point for every point you move to the “R” column.
Many thanks for your great work. I am following you on Twitter too!
I usually look at each individual race but this time...STRAIGHT TICKET.
Time to clean up the scum!