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It’s the turnout, stupid (Great analysis)
Conservatives4Palin ^ | Wednesday November 7, 2012 | Doug Brady

Posted on 11/07/2012 5:53:47 PM PST by Bigtigermike

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I stated awhile back that the 'ABO' mantra wasn't enough to defeat Obama, in fact it was a very poor and weak strategy to fall back on. More people are more inspired to vote for someone than vote against someone.
1 posted on 11/07/2012 5:53:53 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

Interesting analysis.
I believe it’s Hispanics (legal and illegal).
Now larger than the black bloc and 70% plus Dem votes (and fastest growing demographic)


2 posted on 11/07/2012 5:56:30 PM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's bankruptcy; 2016)
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To: Bigtigermike

That is shocking. Romney, despite many flaws, seemed to fire up the base so well in the first and second debate, he looked and sounded good. I didn’t expect radically large turnout, but certainly 2004 level turnout for the base. Clearly not. Personally, I have never seem more widespread intensity for an election than people I know on our side, even business acquaintances, where we had serious discussions. Any other cycle was not like that.

I guess the vote depressing of the anti mitt campaign worked.


3 posted on 11/07/2012 5:59:00 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Bigtigermike

or as I like to say given a choice between coke and diet coke people like the real thing, Democrats.


4 posted on 11/07/2012 6:06:15 PM PST by pwatson
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To: Bigtigermike

ABO would have worked if there had been deep differences.

I posted many times, many months ago:

Obamacare vs. Romneycare (”it was tailord for Massachuesetts” didn’t cut it for me and many other).

Obama vs. Obama=lite (or Obama-white.)

In the end, I held my nose and vote for Romney...but many others breathed freely and stayed home


5 posted on 11/07/2012 6:06:20 PM PST by lightman (If the Patriarchate of the East held a state like the Vatican I would apply for political asylum.)
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To: Bigtigermike

I believe the turnout was there. All the conservatives I know went out to vote for Romney. All of them.

Either we really are outnumbered, or a lot of Republican ballots went missing, beside the massive vote fraud. Busloads of illegals brought to the polls and allowed to vote. Lots of people tweeting about voting multiple times. Snowbirds and students voting in more than one state.

I don’t know. Maybe we really are just outnumbered.


6 posted on 11/07/2012 6:08:12 PM PST by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
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To: Bigtigermike
Fear and "I suck less" are not campaign platforms.

(Bringing back old tagline)

7 posted on 11/07/2012 6:10:33 PM PST by Repeat Offender (Official Romney/GOP-E Platform - We suck less)
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To: Bigtigermike

The math will not be denied. The economic data is absolutely terrible no matter the spin by the MSM. Obama should be the cat that has this ‘bell’ wrapped around his neck. All should know that central planning collectivism caused this collapse. America has crossed the rubicon.


8 posted on 11/07/2012 6:11:29 PM PST by griswold3 (Big Government does not tolerate rivals.)
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To: Bigtigermike

The author misses the point about the turnout - it’s not R vs D, it was White vs. Non-White. The Obama machine has worked on GOTV for four years - of “their people” - and managed to get 2% more non-white voters in 2012 than they got in 2008. This happened while many of us (me) and Dick Morris were convinced they wouldn’t get anything close to the 2008 turnout of non-white voters.

Call it what you will, but they won fair and square. Got more votes than our side did!


9 posted on 11/07/2012 6:12:03 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Westbrook

Few voted for Romney/Ryan than McCain/Palin....that’s the crux. Obama voters turned out but obviously in fewer numbers but turned out nevertheless. Romney didn’t inspire -— I know


10 posted on 11/07/2012 6:14:35 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

The problem with this is that moderates are actually liberals so saying there are twice as many who identify as conservatives then liberals is not really a point.

Another problem is that many aren’t really conservative but consider themselves that just because they are republicans.

They are still for some redistribution, just not as much as the democrats.

And if you are talking about turnout: The democrats always have more people to bring to the polls. They don’t actually have to convince more people to become democrats just to show up to the polls. Likely voters are more conservative than registered voters who are more conservative than adults in general.

Democrats don’t have to convince this pool to vote for them they simply have to convince this pool which normally doesn’t vote to suddenly vote and they get more votes.

Turnout works against us because we have fundamentally an issue with spreading conservatism. We are relying on fox news and talk radio to do it when only conservatives watch or listen to those programs. We have to convince lots of people to change their minds. Its not about turnout its about all the propaganda the other side has in the news media, television shows, video games, everything. With the majority comes more media spreading propaganda the majority likes and this leads to a bigger majority etc.

The only way to fight it is for all conservatives to dedicate themselves to convincing others at every possibility and to be greatly informed about the opponents arguments and how to defeat them. That is the only way. Maybe it is a long shot but it is the only way.


11 posted on 11/07/2012 6:15:05 PM PST by evandi
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To: Westbrook

The thing that puzzles me is that Wall Street took such a hit today. They obviously thought Mitt was going to win or the sell off would have come a lot sooner. A little calibration here little calibration there...could ad up in the swing states


12 posted on 11/07/2012 6:15:05 PM PST by rocketmag
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To: Bigtigermike

for later


13 posted on 11/07/2012 6:16:13 PM PST by Doctor 2Brains
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To: Bigtigermike

In another thread, it was postulated that-

a) Paulinistas pouted & didn’t vote
b) Evangelicals who hate Mormonism stayed home
c) Moderate R’s were turned off by the tone of the campaign
d) General decline in interest over the past 10-16 yeass

Causing a 2M+ drop...


14 posted on 11/07/2012 6:17:39 PM PST by mikrofon (+ Prayers for America +)
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To: Westbrook

Establishment Republicans ever anxious to hold on to power, and the establishment media, are going to blame “the Tea Party” and “radical” conservatives who voted for principled small government constitutional conservative candidates in Republican primaries for the election disaster of 2012.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Governor Romney won the nomination by spending tens of millions of dollars knee-capping his conservative opponents in the primaries and then handed the election to Obama because he and his campaign team spent most of the campaign mired in the establishment Republican folly of trying to win by standing for nothing.

From conservativehq....my thoughts exactly expressed


15 posted on 11/07/2012 6:26:19 PM PST by YoungBlackRepublican
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To: Bigtigermike

Tremendous support for the turnout by the Obama campaign in the MSM, and tremendous support for Republican voter suppression by the MSM.

The MSM won the election for Obama. They protected him from numerous scandals and pushed the idea that recovery is occuring. They protected his every lie.


16 posted on 11/07/2012 6:26:45 PM PST by marktwain
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To: Bigtigermike
To be blunt, the Republican Establishment coronated a candidate who couldn’t inspire the rank and file of his own party to come out in sufficient numbers to replace the man

Fine but there were no realistic alternatives.

17 posted on 11/07/2012 6:30:40 PM PST by fso301
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To: mikrofon

I like it...


18 posted on 11/07/2012 6:30:45 PM PST by 103198
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To: griswold3

Yes, and this hasn’t happened since 1936. That is a huge deal, and needs to be in the forefront of our minds. The electorate has gone crazy again, just like when FDR made the depression worse and we all pretended he saved us.


19 posted on 11/07/2012 6:37:40 PM PST by Tublecane
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To: mikrofon

Romney lost because he always loses, he has been at this for 20 years, has devoted his life to it and spent about 55 million dollars of his own money on it, but people don’t like him.

Mitt did win a governor election with less than 50%, but he was a crummy gov. and had to abandon his plan to run for reelection, he damaged the state party, left office with 34% approval, and lost the seat to the democrats.

In 2006 he came out swinging and raised millions to drive off any serious competitors for the 2008 race, he succeeded and only faced no money people like McCain and Huckabee, Mitt lost to both of them.

Mitt is not liked or trusted by people.


20 posted on 11/07/2012 6:38:41 PM PST by ansel12 (Romney not only reelected Obama, he lost the Senate,ruined the "down ticket", West, Mia Love, Brown.)
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