Lurker,
I have always wondered why Jews vote democrat all the time and I think I found the answer in your post. Great post!
I highly doubt the Dems have another Obama on their bench. Talking campaigning only here, not governing, but Bush was a GREAT campaigner, and no one running last time on the GOP side was even in the same ballpark. Candidates that win have sort of an “it” factor style. It is the thing that makes one side despise them, and one side almost “love” them.
Reagan had “it”, Bush the first did not. He benefited from Reagan popularity and running against Dukakis. Clinton had it (though I know he might have lost without Perot...so debate away), Gore did not. W Bush had it (and still almost last the first time), McCain/Romney did not. Obama had it, Biden doesn’t, and I don’t THINK Hillary has it....who does?....on either side? Not Jeb, Not Newt, not Cory Booker. I really don’t think Paul Ryan has it. Cuomo doesn’t. Santorum doesn’t. Who?
Rubio? Rand Paul? Palin? Remains to be seen. Who on the Dem side? No one saw Obama coming until 4-5 years before he won.
Sometimes it is more of a gut feeling rather than a scientific analysis.