Skip to comments.The shape of things to come (John Derbyshire on the future of the GOP)
Posted on 11/09/2012 10:02:38 AM PST by Zhang Fei
What about the future, then? Does the Republican Party have a future?
As I have been saying, there is no unity among white Americans. The old splits of education, class, sex, religion, city-country, and of course North-South still divide whites, and that is the basis of most of our politics. The Republican Party is white, sure enough, but whites aren't Republican.
This will presumably be less and less the case as whites head for minority status. At some point the fact of impending minority status will sink in, and whites will begin to sink their differences and circle the wagons. At some point the Lee Kuan Yew principle will take over. I've quoted it before, and I'll quote it again, because it's very quotable in this context. Quote from Lee Kuan Yew, who was Prime Minister of Singapore for thirty years, and the power behind the curtain for a further twenty in that very successful city-state, quote:
In multiracial societies, you don't vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion.
What then will be the fate of the Republican Party? The Republicans themselves seem unable to discuss this at any level above the moronic. The usual thing you hear is that the GOP has to "reach out" to minorities, especially Hispanics, by handing out a few million sets of citizenship papers to illegals and by putting Marco Rubio on the 2016 ticket.
This is, as I said, moronic. Not "Mormonic" been there, done that moronic.
In the first place, Rubio's a white guy of Cuban ancestry, an outlier among Hispanics, from a group that Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Guatemalans don't much care for. In the second place, non-white, non-Asian minorities in the U.S.A. underperform in education and employment, and have for generations. You don't need to have a metaphysical theory about why this is so, it's just so, has been for decades in defiance of every kind of remedial action, and there's no evidence anyone can do anything about it. For example, we now have a good database on Hispanics covering the fourth and fifth generations: the statistics are terrible. High-school dropout rates, test scores, unmarried pregnancies, crime, every kind of social dysfunction Hispanics in the generality are an underperforming group that depends on money transfers from whites and Asians via government. Why would this group ever, in any numbers, vote for a small-government white party? And you can of course write that out all over again in boldface large type and italics for blacks. In the third place, given the previous point, where on earth is the sense in expanding this never-going-to-vote-Republican demographic by awarding citizenship to a further three or four million of them? What's the logic here? "We got into this pickle because of uncontrolled immigration. How do we get out of it? Uhhh I know! let's try more uncontrolled immigration!" As Basil Fawlty would say: "Brilliant!" Or as a different Englishman, Daily Telegraph columnist Ed West, headlined his column this week, quote: Pundits tell the Republican party: "The only way you can win is by importing more Democrat voters", end quote. Did someone say "Stupid Party"? This is beyond stupid! In the fourth place, Republicans have poisoned their credibility in this zone by being complicit in the phenomenon they are now pretending to be vexed by, as I described before. The hunger for cheap labor on the part of Republican donor groups has been a big driver of our country's demographic transformation. Why should we listen to anything Republicans have to say about this? For fifty years they've been part of the problem; why should we now believe they're willing to be part of the solution? And in the fifth place, this talk about reaching out to minorities and diversifying the ticket just insults white people, the very group Republicans should be trying to rally. OK, say in 2050 our numbers fall below half the population. That's still a mighty lot of people. Are you telling me that for the next 38 years this huge bloc, the founding stock of modern America, should not be allowed to see themselves represented on a Presidential ticket? Where's the equity in that?
"But," (I hear you say), "if the GOP is to be the white folks' party, and if white folks are destined to be a minority even within the possible lifetime of a reactionary old fogey like Derbyshire, then the GOP will be a minority party, for ever excluded from power, won't it?"
That depends how things shake out over the next forty years. Yes: In a nation made up entirely of ethnic minorities, any ethnically-based party will of course be a minority party. To get power under the present constitutional order, supposing that continues to exist, two or more minorities will have to unite under one party.
But (A) I refer you to Lee Kuan Yew's observation quoted earlier, that in a multiethnic state, politics inevitably comes down to an ethnic shoving match; and (B) this logic will apply to the Democratic Party, too, only in the opposite direction.
Let me elaborate on (B) there. The only thing binding the Democratic Party together right now is hatred of traditional white America. As traditional white America fades in power and importance, the Democrats, deprived of that binding force, may come unglued. By mid-century our politics may consist of three, four, or more minority parties in floating alliances with each other. It's plausible, for example though I'll allow I may be influenced by personal bias here it's plausible that whites and East Asians could go into coalition with each other. Or that successful white Hispanics like Rubio might be at odds with underperforming black and Amerindian Hispanics. Or that blacks and Hispanics may turn enemies, as they already are in jails and schoolyards all over the nation.
So I take the chatter about the death of the Republican Party with a grain of salt. However, I take the other chatter the chatter about the Republican Party ceasing to be a white party I take that with a whole truckload of salt. No, make that a one-hundred-wagon locomotive full of salt. Mm, come to think of it, let's make it a container ship
When you look at the overall picture, however, we are still fighting the Civil War. That is to say, the contest was mainly between two huge groups of white people who don't much like each other, with the colored folk playing a marginal role. That's how it was in the War Between the States, and that's how it still is today.
In the state of Mississippi, for example, 89 percent of whites voted for Romney; in the state of Alabama, it was 84 percent. In the state of Maine, on the other hand, only 40 percent of whites voted for Romney; in Vermont, only 33 percent.
Barack Obama wasn't re-elected by blacks, Hispanics, or Asians, though they helped at the margins; he was re-elected by Yankees.
What do ya know, another article intended to divide.
Naturally all of us filthy yankees all ran out to vote for Obama. /s
I made a point like that in a recent post. I admit race can be a factor but it is not the only one. You have plenty of stupid moochers who are White too. I always admired the South, they are the closest to a warrior culture that we have. There is plenty of blame to go around.
Not as far as I am concerned. For the past two election cycles, they have shoved a moderate in our face and, for the last two election cycles, we have gone down in flames!
It's time that we switch to the Tea Party and start getting conservative candidates to represent us. The GOP-E has breathed its last. They are too willing to bend to the will of the leftists and DO NOT represent the majority of conservative Americans.
Don't contribute to them and don't support them in any way, shape or form.
I know you and I as almost all of us here did not, but we have plenty of Yankees that did. Race, Yankee-ism and so on are factors, but the biggest one is people voting for Santa Claus.
Derbyshire's not talking about moochers. He's talking about a cultural divide. Deliverance wasn't just a movie - it was the encapsulation of every horrific fantasy citified Yankees have had about the South.
You mean I can claim minority benefits, file affirmative action lawsuits, and EOA lawsuits now? Sweet!
Only the reality that most of the offices that dispense the benefits are minorities that have no sympathy for the white race and do their best to deny them benefits. I’ve seen this with my own eyes numerous times. They’ll take our white money for some reason though...
The article is long-ish, but worth the read. It's not about dastardly Yankees sinking the GOP.
I just think we need to stop the divisive crap and get back to work or the democrats will bowl us over like we weren’t even here.
Right now we need to join together and apply the whip to the speaker of the house.
Sex will take care of the racial divides. What we have to do is to somehow convince people that our current path is actually making their life worse. Not an easy chore, but we have to do it. Otherwise it all crashes anyway.
Derbyshire's point is that as whites shrink as a % of the total population, the GOP will become the white party much as the Democratic party is the black party - there may come a day when the GOP gets 90% of the white vote.
A. West, Akin, Mourdock, the guy who ran against Grayson—they were all Tea Party backed and they went up in smoke. Michelle Bachmann barely survived. Immigration and ever-looser cultural values have led to a point where there are more hardcore Dems than hardcore Repubs. We can still win, but it’s getting harder and harder with less room for errors/misfortune on the part of our candidates.
You are either being sarcastic or delusional. Speaker Boehner needs to be whipped when they elect the next speaker. He is a wimp and we need a ruthless speaker with guts and principles.
I do agree that the GOP-E is at its weakest. It now has very little credibility now after 2 presidential elections where the GOP-E told the conservatives to shut up, sit dwn and follow the establishment.
It’s time for the conservatives to take over the party. Throw out Karl Rove, Steve Schmit and replace Mitch McConnell and John Boenher as Congressional leaders. Because if we don’t act now, the establishment will push someone like Jeb Bush, Mike Huckebee or Chris Christie as the 2016 nominee......and we all know what will happen.
I’m sick and tired of being shouted down by the Establishment and then blamed for failure when we did it their way.
The GOP died when the Establishment “Bill Crystal, Karl Rove, and company” forced out any real conservatives during the primary. electing instead to support another RINO Romney who campaigned on: “Repeal Obamaycare and replace it!” Does not encourage conservatives to crawl through glass to vote for him.
Time for a true conservative third party that stands for bona fide free market enterprise, constitutional government, balanced budget, and secure our borders! Watch how fast their candidate gets elected after the disaster of Obamay administration!
Either way, as long as you aren’t giving up. Personally I think Jim DeMint would be a fine speaker.
He ain’t perfect but I think he could get the machinery moving.
Akin was not the tea party candidate.
Missouri, a bastion of the tea-party movement, has been shifting right in recent elections. The Tea Party Express and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin endorsed former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the GOP primary. Self-financing businessman John Brunner had the backing of FreedomWorks, a national tea party umbrella group.
The tea party has been a stunning success, leading us to historical gains in 2010 for example, the gope has been fighting them tooth and nail, and as their disaster called Mitt Romney shows, the establishment doesn’t understand politics.
A little Cultural Competency (I hate that term) would not hurt either.
Nor would simply having an outreach effort that absorbed all the immigrant small business owners in the country.
Just sayin ... their interests and ours are aligned. It also helps that in other cultures, the Jefe is looked up to.
Also, dump the idiots before they get on National TV please.
Thanks for clarifying this earlier.
You do know that Jim DeMint is a senator.
> you vote in accordance with race and religion.
Very true. And this time race was not a factor, it was the few million gonadal and religious voters that stayed home because Romney was Mormon and didn’t force rape victims to carry their rapist infected embryo.
I’ll add that people also vote or abstain in accordance with their intelligence.
We'll have to agree to disagree..
Yeah, but boots don’t flay chunks of flesh off the backside.
“Sex will take care of the racial divides.”
That’s a great idea. Wait a minute. Isn’t Obama racially mixed? And how do most racially mixed people vote?
I only had the one post on this thread, there was no "earlier".
And the GOP-E country clubbers have a Yankee mindset as well (trust me, I know, I come from a family of such and was fortunate to have grown up away from the Northeast). That has always been the problem with the GOP-E - even as it is in a separate party than the Dems, their views overlap with the Dems more than their views overlap those of conservatives. Hence the fact that Romney went far more negative against his primary opponents than he did against Obama - it was a much more natural reaction for his GOP-E campaign operatives.
Two election cycles? More like six. With the fastest growth in new entitlement and social spending since LBJ, GWB was no conservative.
Just because a Republican politician says he is a conservative and Democrats say he is a conservative does not mean that he really is a conservative.
I want them to believe in it and stay home!
On the general subject, once upon a time we believed we could teach immigrants to be Americans, including non-whites. Today we fail to even teach multi-generation WASPs to be Americans. I do not believe either to be impossible, however.
It isn’t going to end well if it continues in our current direction. A financial crash followed by a strongman is the result, historically.
This post is written in anger and frustration.
Angry that we continue to follow the Republican Party’s elite ignorance. A party that continues to pull defeat from the jaws of victory characterized by pompous fools who fulfill the sterotype built by the left.
Frustrated that the reality of politics is this: There will be no third party capable of competing with the coalition constructed by the dems. As a result, true conservatives MUST take steps to irradicate the ignorance of the Republican Party while still adhering to the core values of our forefathers (beliefs that I discovered are considered extreme by over half of my countrymen last night, BTW).
I have no solve for exactly how to accomplish this. Only advice based on a long military career in several foreign lands for how to defeat the dems once this is accomplished.
This thought process is based on the concept of irregular warfare with twists thrown in here and there for good measure.
With that, I provide the following advice for the good of the order.
LEADERSHIP: The old crew has proven either incompotent or outdated. McConnell and Boerner must go. They represent a failed plan to defend and resist without clearly explaining their position. They are content with looking like the bad guys and face public scorn when they don’t realize how important it is to manipulate a clearly left leaning MSM. They represent the failure of the last four years to our own and obstructionists to the opposition. We’ve got to show a new face to the nation. That is the genesis of rebuilding this movement. Ryan or Cantor in the House, Rubio or Demint in the Senate.
They represent a change in a party that has been beaten soundly in the last two elections by a charlatan and his traveling circus. A fresh choice in leadership represents change you can TRULY beleive in from every angle.
GROUND GAME: It is IMPERATIVE to develop and foster an intricate ground game. It requires a MICRO-ANALYSIS of every county, every city, and every early and absentee ballot by demographic to find how how, why, and with what method they voted. Give it to the dems on their “community organizing” machine. We don’t need to reinvent that model. we MUST develop our own.
It will require an insurgent effort at the ground level. An infiltration into dem areas that we identify are weak or vulnerable to start cutting in to the blue.
This isn’t as difficult as it sounds. It requires a patient and immediate effort that starts with the post election analysis.
The COIN (insurgeny/counterinsurgency)effort would include the identification of these areas, the inflitration of the areas through churches and charitable organizations AND PARTICULARLY THROUGH EDUCATION.
I’m not talking about traditional public schools and universities. I’m talking about the new way to educate - the online universities, the trade schools and nightschools. Corporate allies need to invest and educate with the ideals of economic and fiscal conservatism.
The RNC needs to lead and develop this effort. A novice like me can see that there is a disconnect between the voting habits of catholic-dominated hispanics and baptist blacks and their actual stated values. That disconnect can be exploited if it is done slowly, deliberately, and effectively.
INFORMATION WARFARE: We are ATROCIOUS AT THIS. Dems get a simple message out early and often. They poison the well and we are left to change minds rather than get the initial impression right from jump. We constantly play defense and think we are sooooo clever when dems (as they ALWAYS do) do something stupid or illegal.
We ABSOLUTELY MUST be proactive. We must attack at EVERY OPPORTUNITY then add each fail of the dems to a trend and theme. These themes must be simple, tailored, and repetitively broadcast to each target demographic.
We must look out beyond the 5 and 10 meter targets. We’ve got to effectively interpret what the dem message is on the horizon and confront it at all levels - from the national MSM level filtering directly down to the target group level. Even I can see what the talking points of the upcoming week are by watching the Sunday talking head programs. Defense is unacceptable. Attack, attack, attack.
This is only one part of an overall information operation plan that is constant in a simple party message and what it means to each target group.
WE DON’T DO THAT WELL. WHY NOT?
I find it unbelievable that Obama has hijacked the reputation and imagery of the Party of Lincoln. COIN operations involve a very in depth understanding of cultural idocyncracies and how best to exploit them to our advantage. It’s not a “wool-over-the-eyes” approach or a “free shit” approach like the dems sell. THAT ALWAYS COMES UP SHORT.
It’s a sell based on how it effects each target group and what it means to them. If it’s done right, I am CONFIDENT that the tenets of conservatism sell themselves.
In Civil Miltary Operations, assistance in areas that seem unrelated builds trust in the agency. Granted, there’s a fine line between assistance and the giving of free shit but, the special operations forces walk that line well. It can be done. Community outreach in areas that we identify, in ways that we haven’t before can build a larger tent without sacrificing our beliefs.
The military has been doing this in third world countries for years. We’ve been more successful in some areas, less successful in others. In the United States third world strongholds of the Democratic Party,I am confident that it can be done.
This is, by far, not the only avenue we’ve got to pursue in order to turn the tide.
But, if we are going to war, the RNC must look to the military to rediscover and reorganize. The number-crunching beancounters have their place in the organization but, on their best days, they can only identify who will and won’t vote Republican.
This is a “Hearts and Minds” effort.
It requires a new way to think about the political battlefield.
Rangers Lead the Way.
You are missing the point of the article. Derbyshire is stating that in the end we are all tribal everything else is BS. The reason that white liberals exist is because whites are still the dominant majority racially. There is no fear of being marginalized yet. However in the future as our numbers dwindle, white liberals will have to fall back to racial solidarity just to survive. In a country were whites are a minority, do you really think Harry Reid will be treated any better than Jim DeMint, hell no. All those white liberal hacks holding cushy no work jobs are going to be replaced with minorities. At that point they will become Republicans for the sake of survival. When you scratch beneath the surface, we are no different than the Sunnis in Anbar Province.
The speaker does not have to be a member of the House, strange eh. Think out of the box.
Well, true. I discounted GWB because there are some people who still believe that he is a conservative.
I'm not among them.
McCain beats Romney.
Obama Beats McCain
Obama beats Romney.
Who could have foreseen that result?
In the last 4 years, 13 million have been added to Food Stamps, millions more to disability. This is the reason odumbi won. He had a head start of at least 20 million sucking like vampires on America.
The GOP House needs to defund welfare. NOW.
The GOP House needs to establish an election day police and system that will stop the voter fraud. NOW.
Take away the welfare and THEY HAVE TO WORK. If they have to work, then they HAVE TO VOTE GOP, because the GOP creates jobs. The Dems create food stamps. nuff said.
They represent a failed plan only if their plan was what you think it was. Personally I think they are both closet Progressives.
No, we can't. The party is in shambles, the GOP-E have done their level best to suppress the Tea Party and conservatives, in general. We aren't going to take over a Republican Party that is blind, deaf and dumb to its base.
What we CAN do is one or more of the following: 1) stop donating ANYTHING to the Republican Party and START donating heavily to the Tea Party; 2) revolt against the government we have, or 3) divorce the blue states and form a conservative, Constitution-based country out of the "flyover" red states who also secede from the blue states.
America is beyond fixing at the ballot box, anymore. The rule of law is dead and the Constitution has been shredded and will be used as confetti for Obama's next inauguration parade.
He was raised by radicals. Not a good example. Racially mixed people will vote differently than they do now. We just need to convince them with our argument.
There is no substitute for recognizing the truth, and teaching it. The truth is that:
- journalism is leftist. It just is, and it is understandable only when you consider that journalists are mere critics who dont get things done, and socialism is the creed of the superiority of criticism over accomplishment.
- The only possible reason that journalists would temper their tendency to coddle Democrats would be competition among journalists to get the truth out - but there is no effective competition within journalism.
- Ideological competition within journalism is entirely suppressed for the simple reason that all major journalism is joined at the hip by the AP newswire.
- Academia has the same incentives as journalism does, and it is as ideologically homogeneous as journalism is. That makes it excruciatingly difficult to raise up succeeding generations of conservatives. But IMHO KhanAcademy.org may show the way. It is possible to create an entire curriculum independent of the public school system at dramatically less cost than the conventional classroom educational approach. But the point has to be to avoid teaching that journalism is objective, when that is not a necessary assumption and there is no proof of it, and plenty of historical evidence against it.
- Liberals and progressives are mere code words which are euphemisms for agreeing with journalists perspective, but not being working journalists. Journalists will accord its acolytes any positive label except objective, which it reserves to itself.
Obama was elected by Yankees (Race traitors in new-speak).
Most racially mixed people consider themselves non-white and vote accordingly. Many of the most lunatic black nationalists are half white.
The solution: business friendly “red zones” and benefit friendly “blue zones. Just like Hong hong China and PRC China. Let the blues stew in their filth.
A lot of the rebel Indian chiefs who fought the US Cavalry were half (or more) white. Call it hybrid vigor. Call it superior smarts inherited from their white forebears. They were Indian enough to be leaders of the Indian community, but also had the superior raw intelligence (IQ) necessary to beat out most of the full-blooded Indians competing for leadership positions. There's this fortune cookie saying "It is better to be the head of chicken than the rear end of an ox". That's why Obama sided with his black half. And he was lucky in that choice - it ultimately took him all the way to the White House.
Brilliant and succinct precis.
“Barack Obama wasn’t re-elected by blacks, Hispanics, or Asians, though they helped at the margins; he was re-elected by Yankees.”
Ain’t that the truth. Look at a map of the electoral results on Tuesday and compare it to a map of the US/CSA circa 1862. Nothing much has changed.
“Does the Republican Party have a future?”
God I hope not. But I suppose it’ll hang on for awhile longer. Just like the Whigs did.
However in the future as our numbers dwindle, white liberals will have to fall back to racial solidarity just to survive. In a country were whites are a minority, do you really think Harry Reid will be treated any better than Jim DeMint, hell no. All those white liberal hacks holding cushy no work jobs are going to be replaced with minorities. At that point they will become Republicans for the sake of survival. When you scratch beneath the surface, we are no different than the Sunnis in Anbar Province.
“Deliverance wasn’t just a movie - it was the encapsulation of every horrific fantasy citified Yankees have had about the South.”
Good point. Perhaps we should play up to their nightmares? I don’t speak with much of an accent and have to admit that I prefer a salad to BBQ most of the time. Maybe I should get that beat to death pickup truck with the rifle rack and stickers and go visiting the more toney areas up north?