Skip to comments.Here's The Real Reason Nate Silver's Perfect Election Call Was Such An Awesome Breakthrough
Posted on 11/10/2012 9:49:38 AM PST by nathanbedford
Obama was handily favored every single day of the race. The closest thing to a game changer (by far) was the early disastrous debate in early Ocrober. But at no point, did Romney's odds of winning hit 50%. And by the middle of October, Obama was back on the re-ascent. Sandy didn't change anything. The 47% tape didn't change anything. Benghazi didn't change anything. Paul Ryan's selection didn't change anything, and so forth. Romney didn't lose because of a glitch in his election day Get Out The Vote app, which is something a lot of folks are talking about right now.
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I don't believe that would run afoul of any of the Constitutional Amendments passed so far, they don't speak to the issue.
Another way to take it to the degenerate communist baby killers is for the GOP House leader to start every House session with a count of how many black babies were aborted the day before.
Fight the communists effectively and they will scurry back under the rocks they crawled out from.
We have ascerted time after time that BO is not a NBC because his father was not a US citizen. Well, neither was Rubio’s father....nor his mother.....they became citizens after he was born.
There has to be a clarification before he ia nominated for higher office, IMO.
Eventually you’d think conservative candidates would realize that the media is hostile:
From the headline - Romney’s Campaign Plane Dismantled - to the effectively edited comments the entire article is designed for liberal pundits and leftist news sites to use. That one is pretty transparent.
That Mourdock and Akin couldn’t figure out a smoother way to talk about abortion is our Achille’s Heel. Don’t conservatives know by now that they’re going to try to get you?
Even a casual Rush listener like myself knew the “war on women” theme was a big part of the Dem playbook this year.
Journ0list Stephanopolus signaled this in the first R January debate.
How could these Senate candidates NOT be ready to hit that one out of the park?
“Let me get this right, you’re in favor of letting convicted murderers stay alive but you want to kill innocent pre-born children?”
Let’s stop blaming Romney or the GOPe. There isn’t some conspiracy, but only the reality of bad demographics, terrible GOP outreach (find an Indian businessman, Korean grocer or high income black that’s a Republican) and conservatives ourselves.
We have a crummy bench, coalesce around great “ideas” instead of great candidates. Democrats are a power party. They only want to win and get their way. It’s a zero sum game. We have to win and to do that you have to get the right message, right candidate and the right vote totals.
We’re in a tough spot.
Exactly. If it would have become a question for Rubio, BO would have to answer to the same standards.
Nate Silver isn't a pollster at all, he is a statistician. Freeper Jackmerecer is a statitician, and posted on Monday that BO would get 294 EV, with Colorado too close to call, that the Republicans would hold the House, and be -3 in the Senate. BO took Florida, and the Republicans only lost two seats in the Senate, so Jackmercer was 49-1 in the Presidential Election (having made no prediction on CO), and 32-1 in the Senate Election.
Is Jackmercer a part of BO's machine, and being fed secret data by OFA?
“Lets stop blaming Romney or the GOPe.”
I am merely stating facts - one cannot win without the base and too many of them did not vote for him - they skipped that line. We had millions less votes than we did in 2008 and indicates too many of the base rejected Romney. The same thing will happen in 2016 if the GOPe promotes another liberal.
Brilliant. Too many people here are stuck in a closed-loop system. Consequently they are always shocked when things don’t turn out their way because of concentrated anecdotal ‘evidence’ that is only apparent not factual. Happened in 2008, and now. Just because ‘all your friends and workmates’ think one way doesn’t imply unanimity in sample pools outside your own. Hence the closed loop fallacy.
Especially those of us here in Texas, my county went 70% for R&R. Texas really now is like a whole other country.
Jackmerecer’s analysis doesn’t make Nate Silver any less of a partisan hack.
I did. I said Obama would win because Rove's strategy of "Obama's a nice guy in over his head" was doomed to failure.
how is he a partisan hack when he predicted throught the fall of 2010 that the GOP was headed for a huge victory? Back then all these libs and dems were attacking him ,saying he sold out, etc...
He’s not a hack. He just looks at the demographics and polls and comes up with a %, it’s not that hard to do.
From a macro view and in a vacuum, you can say Rasmussen did pretty well...and historically, he did do ok. But we live in a new era with lots of other outfits playing along.
Out of 18 national polling outfits this year, only Gallup did worse than him; Rasmussen was 17th in accuracy out of 18 and contrary to popular belief, he was tied at 6th most accurate in 2008...I have a post on that floating around somewhere
I’m not saying Rasmussen is a horrible pollster, though I discounted his polls in my calculations, I am saying that there are a very large number of better pollsters in the business today.
The SOS Project has accomplished its goals, and they now affect a disproportionate control on elections.
I am convinced that this election was stolen in hundreds of small battles across the country.
Have you seen any polling that just flies in the face of reality?
Statistically, I see no way that the Dems can win (again) every close contest unless their finger is on the scale.
OK. It could also signal a demographic shift and a need to form coalitions with like minded minorities. Peel just a few percents away and Romney would have won.
My point is that the blame-game resolves nothing and moves the locus of control away from us. Is our message too harsh? Mourdock and Akin lost while Romney won.
How can we package conservatism so that people who have been indoctrinated by their school and media get it?
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