Skip to comments.The Campaign Made No Difference
Posted on 11/11/2012 1:45:28 AM PST by nathanbedford
The debates, the conventions, the storm coverage, Benghazi, the state of the economy, jobs data and all other events that affected all fifty states mattered. But the paid media, the in-person campaigning in swing states, and the massive ground game deployed by both sides accomplished nothing. Obama lost all the votes he was going to lose anyway in the swing states and Romney gained of the votes he was going to gain anyway in the swing states.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
This suggests that the crash was due to mechanical error rather than navigational error. Pilot error certainly was at the core of the problem if, as alleged, Romney did not test drive his get out the vote technology and it crashed on election morning.
As reassuring as it is to believe that ideology was not the root cause, we nevertheless must ask why the election was out of reach if not for ideology. We have to ask whether our get out the vote drive foundered because of ideology rather than mechanics. In other words, was the electorate immovable because they are ideologically opposed to the Republican- or if you prefer, Romney's- message.
Hence, we really have to understand the demographics of the electorate. Democrats such as Bob Beckel persistently say that the Republicans cannot win with less than 74% of the white vote and we got only 72%. He observes that this is the high watermark of white population in America and so the future is written on the wall for all to see.
If we do not know the realities of the demographics today, in 2014 and 2016 we will never know if we can cope with our deficiencies merely by tinkering with the get out the vote effort. We have to know what we are dealing with.
These articles which are now accumulating are beginning to tell us the story. We failed to get out the vote but we are not clear about whether there was any vote get out.
Before we assure the conservative world that we have the key to the next election, we ought to take the time to analyze and understand the data.
There are three lessons to take home on this election. First, picking Paul Ryan was a positive but they never turned the wheel on his Medicare talk and budget cuts....I don’t think the public ever got that message. Second, you have no choice....you have to go after the Hispanic vote, and that means passing the Dream Act, and getting Rubio out in front for the 2016 race. Third and final: the whole Democratic vote was based on splitting people up into classes and going after individual classes with perceived attention. Either you find a guy to unite classes or you have to play the same game in the end.
It wasn’t the message. It was the messenger.
Yep. There is a reason that Romney/Ryan got 3 million less votes than McCain/Palin.
More than any one I want to believe that it is the messenger and not the message, that conservative virtue if given the right messenger will triumph.
But I want to know beyond all paraventure of doubt that the next time we go to the electorate we have the right combination of message and messenger and I do not want to rely on my own feel-good reactions made while shellshocked.
Similarly, I would not venture an opinion on whether Paul Ryan helped or hurt the ticket because I do not know, I have not seen any data. While it is reasonably clear that we have to do something about the Hispanic vote, how do we know that the solution is to cave on the dream act? Further, how do we know that Marco Rubio will make a difference? Can we just trot out an Hispanic and expect a whole demographic to flip? Besides, how much influence does a Cuban American have with Mexican-Americans?
My point is we do not know and one opinion is about as valuable as the next. We proceed on the basis of what makes us feel good at our peril.
Fool’s gold. ALL of it. The people who run this country aren’t always the ones who show up on camera or sit in DC office buildings. They allow you your injection of electoral heroin, and then they leave you to sweat it out cold turkey because they do not care. They neither feel your pain nor want to.
The ‘they’ control the horizontal and the vertical, and you, my FRiend, are in the Outer Limits.
How do you know?
Been asking similar questions the past day or so.
My conclusion thus far has been that Conservatives need to learn how to play better politics, but people keep getting upset that I even suggest the idea
Also consider perhaps actually studying the electorate, see what the prevailing opinions are, what can be done to make the message more palatable and to whom, etc.
As in, actual research. Not just feelings and hunches.
Just a thought.
Of course not. That would be a ridiculous assumption. However it may require a serious program by Hispanic conservatives to educate their brethren on our founding principles, equality under the law, God-given liberty and unalienable rights, and the benefits and unlimited opportunities of freedom vs. socialism and statism. And obviously, this will take time. But capitulating to the open borders crowd would mean an endless new crop of democrat voting immigrants and will cause yet even more drains on the treasury.
I thought the enthusiasm for Obama would be down a lot this time around and it was because people know who he is now. I think the biggest reason the Repubs lost is that people just did not get very fired up by R&R either. I think it probably did not help that the GOP picked the only candidate available who could not attack Obamacare with any credibility.
The Democrats would never agree to this while in power, but why not a rigorous test at the highest standard about American history, knowledge of the Constitution, significance of the Declaration of Independence and the Gettysburg address? Why not require these people at least to be exposed to the one thing that sets America apart from all other nations, and nation founded not on tribe but on an idea. They might not accept the idea but they damn well should be made to understand it before they reject it.
“Yep. There is a reason that Romney/Ryan got 3 million less votes than McCain/Palin.”
and to think we thought McCain was a RINO dud. McCain didn’t even have much money because he limited himself.
dick morris, take a hike. You need to just get out of the game.
I’m firmly of the opinion that pandering to the Hispanic vote is poison. They don’t vote reliably GOP in high enough #s to justify such an amnesty venture at all.
I’d be curious whether GOP minority candidates even fare that much better than White GOP candidates. My unconfirmed hunch is that they get skewered in elections at about the same rate regardless of skin colorthough I’d be interested to see an analysis on that. For now though, my belief is that playing race politics isn’t a viable strategy for us.
Ultimately I just can’t think of anything the GOP truly ‘offers’ Hispanics that the Democrats can’t already offer them, and then some.
Making the GOP more like the Dems won’t win elections. We have to provide a meaningful contrast. There’s little sense for anyone to vote Democrat-lite when they can just go full Democrat instead.
The dream act and amnesty will not bring hispanics to the GOP. They will kill the GOP.
The hispanics who vote are not interested in those things. They are already legal. They vote democrat because socialism is part of the heritage that they brought from their home countries. There is no such thing as small government conservatism in Mexico. If you look at the people who get elected in Latin America they are all exactly like Obama. They demonize the rich, destroy wealth and then look for scapegoats to justify their failures. Sounds familiar?
If all this was baked in, then the only conclusion we can draw is that an incumbent holds a significant advantage over a challenger. So how have incumbent presidents been defeated in the past? BTW, if incumbency is what swung it for obama, then none of 2012 is a lesson for 2016.
A way must be found to negate and/or (preferably) eviscerate the ENEMYdia.
Without a consortium of deep-pockets conservatives having the testicular fortitude to pick up the flag and plant it in the doorway of a competitive information outlet, I'm not hopeful.
Dick Morris really needs to be put on a back burner along with Barone and all the others who predicted a 310+ electoral victory.
In Morris’ case it’s easy to see him as a 5th columnist.
I haven’t heard anyone, Republican, DemonRat, or Independent, say that they didn’t vote for Romney because he wasn’t liberal enough.
I have heard that he was “only out for the rich” which simply means that our side has done a lousy job of communicating how much good Conservative policies actually do for the poor and middle class. Having a job and income is better than slavery to the government, being free allows you to better your circumstances, etc.
In 1984, Reagan won almost 40% of the hispanic vote.
In 1986, Reagan signed amnesty for millions of hispanics.
In 1988, Bush41 won less than 35% of the hispanic vote.
Pandering does not deliver votes.
Most of the hispanics and other illegals coming to our country are just like locusts who will devour everything given to them until nothing exists. Then, they will move on to the next feeding ground.
They are not here for a better life for their children.....they are here for a better life for themselves.......damn the consequences.
This is why the GOP-e and Hannity are wrong on pandering.
Can we say VOTER FRAUD
Why not make an SAT-style history test out of it while you’re at it? Smart immigrants are a net boon to the country, whereas unintelligent ones, through their progeny, are a drag generation after generation after generation.
Sign the petition for a recount:
Visit this site. They are keeping a running account of cases of voter fraud and what to do about it:
From the website:
Barack Obama voter fraud 2012
Friday, November 9, 2012 - 22 Updates Posted Today and People You Can Contact! See FRIDAY UPDATES! *
Is this what Barack Obama calls a ground game? All things considered, on this page and elsewhere, Mitt Romney IS our President elect. Lets do something about it!
Ill be adding additional links on a regular basis and forwarding all of this information to Mitts campaign! Please send other links.
Evidence of massive Obama voter fraud in Colorado! Ten counties show 104% to 140% turnout!
Fraud: Some told they already voted, others brag about voting multiple times
Crooked Politics: Obama Lost in Every State With Photo ID Law
Philly Polling Stations Where GOP Inspectors Were Kicked Out Had 90% Voter Turnout, 99% Voted For Obama
[Sounds like those Black Panthers who kicked out the GOP observers and stood guard at the polling stations were not just trying to intimidate voters! They were hiding something!]
Voter Fraud Watch: Two Election Judges Replaced After Illegal Activity in Ohio - Fox News Insider
Why the Polls are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
Vote fraud alert: One out of five registered Ohio voters is bogus
via @BeachCity55 on Twitter: Senior parents in Florida told not to put their ballots through their reader but in a box. Senior votes in FL not counted?
Data Points To A Powerful Romney Campaign And Yet
You have to vote for Dems NYC poll worker tells GOP Senate candidate #IllegalElectioneering
At least 70,000 report voting problems, mostly in swing states
Plane crash destroys Afghanistan US military ballots, most of which are for Mitt Romney
Obamas pattern of disenfranchisement of the military vote
Another Stolen Election? Election data HIGHLY suspicious AND the George Soros Secretary of State Project http://goo.gl/y1ybR
Yes, this is the same George Soros who owns part of the company in Spain Obama outsourced parts of the election to and who has been banned from Hungary because he tampered with elections there.
We will continue to add updates! Please check back often!
From Lynn Victory on Facebook:
Thanks for what you are doing. My son is friends with a guy in the Romney campaign who has actually been on since 2008. He is not high up, but said that the O campaign bought high tech equipment to target county by county where the votes were needed in battle-ground states, so that they could bus in the needed votes. The guy would not say fraud, but that is fraud.
Also this referral from Lynn:
White House Insider on Obama Steal the Votes Strategy (Just Before the Election)
these Obama boys
they took it to a whole other level. Votes, donations
its a lot more Putin than it is Clinton. Pay to play
this country never seen it at this level.
Voter fraud witnessed in Wisconsin by one of Mitts ORCA observers:
via Lori Patriot on Facebook:
52 Democrats arrested for VOTER FRAUD so far
VIDEO: Illegal Aliens Caught Voting and Stealing Elections In Florida In Vast Numbers
In 2008, John McCain Ignored Vote Fraud to Avoid Civil Unrest
Michael Savage: How Obama fixed 2012 election
Massive voter fraud discovered in April
Is Voter Fraud Being Committed in Ohio? (Early Voting)
Pundit Press: What Luck! Obama Won Dozens of Cleveland Districts with 100% of the Vote
Photo of Ethiopians brought to Ohio voting stations by busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama, straight Dem ticket
Did this Dirty Trick Get Obama Re-Elected?
Vote Fraud Expert: Romney Votes Not Counted in Key States
Could we fix an election? Sure, they would never know it.
Thousands of votes from our military troops uncounted or missing
Defense Department cant put soldiers, ballots together
Voter fraud in Pennsylvania - Black Panthers return, GOP inspectors thrown out
Ohio fraudulent voter registration cards
Ohio Residents Told They Already Voted When They Showed Up At the Polls Tuesday
Poll Worker Puts Glendale Precincts Ballots on Car, Drives Away
Referenced above, but with more information:
Two Ohio Election Judges Removed for Allowing Unregistered Voters to Cast Ballots
Democrat Admits Hes Voted FOUR Times Already
Boston reports 129% voter turnout, 79% for Obama; 74% for Elizabeth Warren
This one could be just a calibration issue, but not necessarily based on the programers testimony in the next link:
Voting machine swaps Romney for Obama
Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting
VIDEO: Possible voter fraud in Pennsylvania or just voting machine malfunction?
Voter Fraud Complaint Filed against Florida Democrats
Ballot Re-writers Update from Allen Westhttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=299196730187117&set=a.198312883608836.34844.198021666971291&type=1&theater
Half the Democratic ground game is voter turnout. The other half is voter fraud.
Voter Fraud: Obama Won 108% of Registered Voters in Wood County, Ohio
Video: Diebold Whistleblower Speaks Out on Voter Fraud
BREAKING: St. Lucie County, Florida Had 141.1% Turnout; Obama Won County
Between St. Lucie and Broward Counties, we have a pretty good idea what happened in Florida. Normal voting is what, 50% turnout? It doesnt take many counties like this to affect an entire state by multiple percentage points.
All of these numbers between 99% (Pennsylvania) and 141.1% (Florida) turnout in dozens of counties in swing states makes me think Team Obama was panicking a lot just before the election, with Mitt up by 7% in certain early voting polls.
They overcompensated so much the fraud is impossible to hide. I think they know it, which may be one reason Axelrod is stepping down. (Sound familiar Petraeus and Benghazi?)
As I told someone earlier today, this is who Obama is. This is who Chicago (the machine) is.
Do we really want this to be who America is?
Is this how we will define our elections from 2008 on? As Mitt says, America can do better.
We must do better. We cant let the message be out there that America will let this fraud go.
Want to do something about all of this? Tiffany Banks and Darin Southam forwarded me a list of people you can contact who are in the November 9, 2012 3:12 PM comment below.
Did you know voters can request a recount in certain states? (Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin!) Take a look at the comment by @RightonMainSt dated November 9, 2012 11:45 PM below for instructions! Mitt will have to ask in Colorado himself. (Yes, you Mitt!)
It has also been suggested that we ask Republican Secretaries of State NOT to certify the election until all questions about voter fraud are abated.
Some people think this may provoke a crisis, but it cant be worse than the one we are looking at for the next four years and the impact on generations to come!
America NEEDS Mitt, and Mitt won fair and square. This was not a ballot stuffing competition but an election. Lets make sure its counted that way!
Thank you all. Over 7,500 people have visited this page in the first 24 hours and I hope millions will see it eventually. Please pass it on! We can do this! (Yes we can!)
One thing I would absolutely say is that it makes no sense to nominate a presidential candidate from a state that he has no hope of winning. I mean, come on ... the Romney Election Night campaign headquarters was in BOSTON? ROFL.
Romney never made it past what people saw. An older rich white guy, with barrels of cash, a confusing message, who was caught on a video telling rich donors he doesn’t care about half the population. I voted for Romney but this is what I’m hearing from other people I expected to vote for him that didn’t. As to all those middle age white suburban married couples, how many of them saw their college students getting additional grant assistance from Obama that saved them big bucks? I’ve heard this was a big issue for college kids and their parents.
Secondly, as time went on and some of these characters dropped out of the race, Mitt Romney actually got less popular among primary voters. As the primaries went on through January, February and March, he piled up delegates even as his share of the "popular vote" in those primaries declined. When a guy wins a primary with 35% support, this tells me that his own base wants someone else.
My one suggestion at this point for Republicans moving forward is to get rid of the garbage in the primary season and consolidate the race to two candidates -- a "Tea Party" candidate against an "Establishment" candidate.
It’s not at all the demographics, it’s that a majority (accelerated by allowing lots of 3rd world immigrants to become citizens)are voting the treasury and other people’s money to themselves with the personal greed they like to attribute to so called big evil corporations.
One way to get Hispanics on board a conservative bandwagon -- or any ethnic group, I would think -- is to make them want to be Americans.
For many decades the axiom was “it’s the economy, stupid.” Well this election contradicted that axiom and proved it false. The economy was horrible, but the idiot in charge of it still got re-elected. Practically all Romney talked about was the bad economy. And he still got beat. When I saw polls that reported most American still blame Bush (falsely) for the bad eocnomy, I knew things were going to be tough for Romney. And he never tried to dissuade voters from that false view. Next time the Pubbie president had better be ideological.
There's only one lesson, rinos are losers and the evidence is crystal clear! People for some reason especially on OUR side do not understand conservatism is a winner! You just have to market it right against the negative spin.
You're never going to win agreeing with your opponent more than half the time, and the other half be flip-flop, wishy-washy. The GOP has tried this middle of the road crap 5 out of the last 6 elections and LOST! And the stupid party will DO IT AGAIN!
THAT'S THE ONLY LESSON THAT MATTERS!
He’s clueless. I know it was over when he predicted a landslide weeks before the election. His rate of success is so bad, why does anyone listen to him, why does Fox still have him, and why does anyone post his garbage here??????
He has zero cred....
Every axiom was proven wrong in this election: gas prices tripled, unemployment at 8%, economy in toilet, lies, lies and more lies, promised tax increases, popularity never gets to 50%...
all those bromides blown to smithereens...
like our country.
Jonathan Rodden, political science professor at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution speaks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the geography of voting. The main focus is on the tendency of urban voters around the world to vote for candidates on the left relative to suburban and rural voters. Rodden argues that this pattern is related to the geography of work and housing going back to the industrial revolution. He also discusses the implications of various voting systems such as winner-take-all vs. proportional representation, the electoral college and how political systems and voter preferences can produce unexpected outcomes.
Check your history books. People move to the City because it's easier, density means opportunity, but it also means conflict. Populism arises as politicians parcel out positions divvying up the public and satisfying their specific group demands. Like a good restaurateur they serve the meals their clients want. That's good politics. It's the politics of victory.
The equivalent in economics is Gresham's Law which reads: “Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law.” This is the case in politics. The “exchange rate” is government/taxpayer transfer funds and they are set by law along with the election code. It's how things are and how they'll always be...
Reagan LANDSLIDE!!! Reagan LANDSLIDE!!!
yadda yadda blah blah woof woof on everything else...
...don't run RINOS!!!
Exactly. The only hope these days to beat the Dems is to nominate someone who can get out the base. Only a true conservative can do that. Not only that, but that candidate would need to fight, not pander, and to expose the lies of the left without fear of "offending the independents".
The middle is easily swayed. Lets try educating them with the facts for a change.
You are giving up the war by conceding the high ground, as though the culture and mindset is a given that we have to "adapt to".
We should engage and remake the culture, and then leave the left scrambling to whine and adapt and make excuses.
Lying scum moron Marxist vermin.
Pass the Dream Act (amnesty) and all you will have is a bunch of people who will vote democrat. Mexican-american citizens will recognize conservatism if it is presented to them. But newly-minted illegals will not.
Something is wrong with this picture.
Consider the following numbers (from Wikipedia):
I have not seen a breakdown, state by state, of 2008 vs. 2012, but everything suggests that very small numbers would have made a big difference.
So where did our previous votes go?
Who were those people, and what did they do in 2008 and 2012?
Seems to me that if we can't get our own voters to vote for our guy, then how can we ever convince more liberal-leaning ethnic, and other defined groups, that free-dom is better than Big Government's free-stuff.
Might I suggest one answer:
So how many of those came from critical swing states?
The evidence that this election was stolen in the swing states and by suppressing the military vote is overwhelming. People showed up. R votes were thrown out, D votes added. Look at the way the vote went down in the uncontested states, both red and blue. We didn't lose an honest election.
Why the hell are we even talking about what the GOP needs to do to be relevant or win elections? If the demonrats are allowed to get away with this it doesn't matter how we campaign or with who. They'll steal it anyway. Even with the MSM screwing the country blind, if this election was even close to fair we won it.
This self flagellation by conservatives is bullish*t. If we won't stand up to this now we are just wasting our time and playing into their hands. Changing our convictions and trashing each other is just an added bonus for these criminals and their minions. Please, for the love of God and Country, for our posterity and for freedom's sake, wake up.
We do not yet know. You are quite right.
rino's lose because their message is un-respected! Romney can say all he wants he believes in whatever, but people sense it is not true and everyone knows he's flipped on a dime to try to be someone he's not. Just like McCain tried.
People can sense this and it's why he lost. If he really was the opposite of Obama and proved it, he would have had more chance of winning. Romney lost because enough "conservatives" stayed home.
You can't win when you're fighting both yourself AND the dem/MSM.
This “we failed to get the vote out” really bothers me.
1) Who, in this country, did not know it was election day?
2) Who, in this county, did not realize what was at stake?
ORCA crashing did not lose the election... People not giving a crap about their own future to do something about it did. So let’s put the blame where it belongs. In the lap of everyone who stayed home.
He's should have lost all credibility years ago!
I will say one thing...I do not think there is any question it appeared Romney had the momentum.
I posted this in another thread:
Nielson ratings showed about a 6 million drop in election night viewers from 2008 to 2012.
VA by about 110k, out of 3.69 million or by about 3%
OH by about 100k, out of 5.29 million or by about 2%
PA by about 280k, out of 5.53 million or by about 5%
IA by about 90k, out of 1.54 million or by nearly 6%
CO by about 100k, out of 2.36 million or by about 4%
The overall totals so far are
Obama 61.7 million (51.3%) for 2012 and 69.5 million (53.7%) for 2008
Romney 58.5 million (48.7%) for 2012 and 59.9 million (McCain 46.3%) for 2008
Total 120.2 million for 2012 and 129.4 million for 2008
It would seem that several of the swing states were not such swing states afterall.
Without substantial proof, voter fraud will be difficult to prove. The percentages in the swing states Obama won seem fairly consistent.
That's right! rino's are losers because people have principles. Losers in the last 5 or 6 elections. You'd imagine at some point people like you and others would get a clue!
You may not like it, but the facts are rinos are losers.
Btw, just so you know I was amendment about NO MORE RINOS, but decided this election was too important and went against my principles. Not that I regret my vote, but I should have known better and fought harder for a conservative!
It's over for me. I am no longer a republican.
The GOP can forget winning elections if they pander for Illegal Alien Amnesty
I am so tired of Liberals pushing Illegal Alien Amnesty...and Liberals in GOP Media pushing the “Hispanic Vote Myth”
You get more votes from moderate white Democrats with a strong National Security/Secure Norders/100% Deportation platform...than you get Hispanic votes from passing Illegal Alien Amnesty.
Fact is...Obama got 40% of the white vote. You would have to get about 400% of the Hispanic vote to equal that pct of white voters...and I don’t think the Dems would allow the GOP to stuff the ballot box
But it was the message: it never got spread.
(During the debates, Romney emphasized the role of small business in reviving the economy, but nobody helped him in picking up on it and spreading it. Nobody articulated what was wrong with paying for Fluke's contraception / abortifacents, letting the meme spread that Republicans don't care about womyn. And Romney positively colluded with the left -- or he cowered like a true RINO in the face of lardass Candy Crowley -- about Benghazi.)
Hmmm, come to think of it, if the messenger doesn't get around to spreading the message, maybe it *is* the messenger. ;-)