The Campaign Made No Difference

Dick Morris ^ | November 10, 2012 | Dick Morris

[nathanbedford]

The debates, the conventions, the storm coverage, Benghazi, the state of the economy, jobs data and all other events that affected all fifty states mattered. But the paid media, the in-person campaigning in swing states, and the massive ground game deployed by both sides accomplished nothing. Obama lost all the votes he was going to lose anyway in the swing states and Romney gained of the votes he was going to gain anyway in the swing states.

[nathanbedford]

This is the second article to appear within a few hours arguing in effect that the election result was baked in the cake and the campaigns altered destiny very little or not at all. The other article,Here's The Real Reason Nate Silver's Perfect Election Call Was Such An Awesome Breakthrough , list some interesting replies especially from jackmercer who agrees with the principal proposition that the election was out of reach for Romney throughout and it was, if anything, a get out the vote election.

This suggests that the crash was due to mechanical error rather than navigational error. Pilot error certainly was at the core of the problem if, as alleged, Romney did not test drive his get out the vote technology and it crashed on election morning.

As reassuring as it is to believe that ideology was not the root cause, we nevertheless must ask why the election was out of reach if not for ideology. We have to ask whether our get out the vote drive foundered because of ideology rather than mechanics. In other words, was the electorate immovable because they are ideologically opposed to the Republican- or if you prefer, Romney's- message.

Hence, we really have to understand the demographics of the electorate. Democrats such as Bob Beckel persistently say that the Republicans cannot win with less than 74% of the white vote and we got only 72%. He observes that this is the high watermark of white population in America and so the future is written on the wall for all to see.

If we do not know the realities of the demographics today, in 2014 and 2016 we will never know if we can cope with our deficiencies merely by tinkering with the get out the vote effort. We have to know what we are dealing with.

These articles which are now accumulating are beginning to tell us the story. We failed to get out the vote but we are not clear about whether there was any vote get out.

Before we assure the conservative world that we have the key to the next election, we ought to take the time to analyze and understand the data.

[nathanbedford]

Your name came up.

[pepsionice]

There are three lessons to take home on this election. First, picking Paul Ryan was a positive but they never turned the wheel on his Medicare talk and budget cuts....I don’t think the public ever got that message. Second, you have no choice....you have to go after the Hispanic vote, and that means passing the Dream Act, and getting Rubio out in front for the 2016 race. Third and final: the whole Democratic vote was based on splitting people up into classes and going after individual classes with perceived attention. Either you find a guy to unite classes or you have to play the same game in the end.

[Jim Robinson]

It wasn’t the message. It was the messenger.

[jospehm20]

Yep. There is a reason that Romney/Ryan got 3 million less votes than McCain/Palin.

[nathanbedford]

Gentlemen:

More than any one I want to believe that it is the messenger and not the message, that conservative virtue if given the right messenger will triumph.

But I want to know beyond all paraventure of doubt that the next time we go to the electorate we have the right combination of message and messenger and I do not want to rely on my own feel-good reactions made while shellshocked.

Similarly, I would not venture an opinion on whether Paul Ryan helped or hurt the ticket because I do not know, I have not seen any data. While it is reasonably clear that we have to do something about the Hispanic vote, how do we know that the solution is to cave on the dream act? Further, how do we know that Marco Rubio will make a difference? Can we just trot out an Hispanic and expect a whole demographic to flip? Besides, how much influence does a Cuban American have with Mexican-Americans?

My point is we do not know and one opinion is about as valuable as the next. We proceed on the basis of what makes us feel good at our peril.

[MestaMachine]

Fool’s gold. ALL of it. The people who run this country aren’t always the ones who show up on camera or sit in DC office buildings. They allow you your injection of electoral heroin, and then they leave you to sweat it out cold turkey because they do not care. They neither feel your pain nor want to.
The ‘they’ control the horizontal and the vertical, and you, my FRiend, are in the Outer Limits.

[nathanbedford]

Question: is it the same reason that caused Obama to get 10 million votes fewer than he did in 2008?

How do you know?

[Utmost Certainty]

Been asking similar questions the past day or so.

My conclusion thus far has been that Conservatives need to learn how to play better politics, but people keep getting upset that I even suggest the idea…

Also consider perhaps actually studying the electorate, see what the prevailing opinions are, what can be done to make the message more palatable and to whom, etc.

As in, actual research. Not just feelings and hunches.

Just a thought.

[nathanbedford]

Amen

[Jim Robinson]

"Can we just trot out an Hispanic and expect a whole demographic to flip?"

Of course not. That would be a ridiculous assumption. However it may require a serious program by Hispanic conservatives to educate their brethren on our founding principles, equality under the law, God-given liberty and unalienable rights, and the benefits and unlimited opportunities of freedom vs. socialism and statism. And obviously, this will take time. But capitulating to the open borders crowd would mean an endless new crop of democrat voting immigrants and will cause yet even more drains on the treasury.

[jospehm20]

I thought the enthusiasm for Obama would be down a lot this time around and it was because people know who he is now. I think the biggest reason the Repubs lost is that people just did not get very fired up by R&R either. I think it probably did not help that the GOP picked the only candidate available who could not attack Obamacare with any credibility.

[nathanbedford]

Here in Germany I am told that the test for citizenship is extremely rigorous which is nothing less than one would expect in the land of Teutonic thoroughness. You should see the exams to get a drivers license or a fishing license, for the latter you need an advanced degree in ichthyology.

The Democrats would never agree to this while in power, but why not a rigorous test at the highest standard about American history, knowledge of the Constitution, significance of the Declaration of Independence and the Gettysburg address? Why not require these people at least to be exposed to the one thing that sets America apart from all other nations, and nation founded not on tribe but on an idea. They might not accept the idea but they damn well should be made to understand it before they reject it.

[ari-freedom]

“Yep. There is a reason that Romney/Ryan got 3 million less votes than McCain/Palin.”

and to think we thought McCain was a RINO dud. McCain didn’t even have much money because he limited himself.

[weezel]

dick morris, take a hike. You need to just get out of the game.

[Utmost Certainty]

I’m firmly of the opinion that pandering to the Hispanic vote is poison. They don’t vote reliably GOP in high enough #s to justify such an amnesty venture at all.

I’d be curious whether GOP minority candidates even fare that much better than White GOP candidates. My unconfirmed hunch is that they get skewered in elections at about the same rate regardless of skin color—though I’d be interested to see an analysis on that. For now though, my belief is that playing race politics isn’t a viable strategy for us.

Ultimately I just can’t think of anything the GOP truly ‘offers’ Hispanics that the Democrats can’t already offer them, and then some.

Making the GOP more like the Dems won’t win elections. We have to provide a meaningful contrast. There’s little sense for anyone to vote Democrat-lite when they can just go full Democrat instead.

[nathanbedford]

Michael Barone was just as bad.

[BarnacleCenturion]

The dream act and amnesty will not bring hispanics to the GOP. They will kill the GOP.

The hispanics who vote are not interested in those things. They are already legal. They vote democrat because socialism is part of the heritage that they brought from their home countries. There is no such thing as small government conservatism in Mexico. If you look at the people who get elected in Latin America they are all exactly like Obama. They demonize the rich, destroy wealth and then look for scapegoats to justify their failures. Sounds familiar?

[gotribe]

If all this was baked in, then the only conclusion we can draw is that an incumbent holds a significant advantage over a challenger. So how have incumbent presidents been defeated in the past? BTW, if incumbency is what swung it for obama, then none of 2012 is a lesson for 2016.

[tomkat]

Our message simply does NOT get out .. we are denigrated at most every turn, on literally an hourly basis.

A way must be found to negate and/or (preferably) eviscerate the ENEMYdia.

Without a consortium of deep-pockets conservatives having the testicular fortitude to pick up the flag and plant it in the doorway of a competitive information outlet, I'm not hopeful.

/.02