Posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:11 PM PST by Perdogg
There are plenty of analogs for market and economic behavior currently echoing the past - some scary, some terrifying, and some hopeful. Barclays found two interestingly similar election-bound relationships to the current environment but with very different outcomes: Harry Truman's successful 'Fair Deal' 1948 campaign and Jimmy Carter's unsuccessful 1980 re-election effort.
Via Barclays:
In both cases business confidence and capital spending were soft during the election year; however, during the sprint to the November elections the market went in completely different directions.
In 1948, the S&P 500 dropped 11% from June through late September, bounced in October then fell sharply after Truman won in a shocking upset.
In 1980, the S&P 500 rallied 36% from March through late September, had a 5% correction in October followed by a post-election rally to higher levels after Reagan won a decisive victory.
Capital spending fell sharply in late 1948 and 1H49, driving the economy into recession due in part to a monetary policy mistake (raising the reserve requirement), while in 1981 capital spending increased sharply.
This year’s election had similarities with both. Unfortunately the market traded as if this was 1980, but it turns out we could be headed for ‘Truman’s 3rd term’ (See Figures 3 and 4)..
Clearly the risk is a policy mistake – this time fiscal – which could drive another capital spending bust and a shallow recession..
So, will Obama's 2nd Term be more like Truman's 3rd or Reagan's 1st for the market and the economy - based on potential for policy mistake... or c) none of the above... .
Carter III
ObamaII will be like Hitler 1936-1940.
Truman III??
Stalin I. Lenin I. Mugabe I. Mao I. Pol Pot I.
What?
It’s Jimmah Carter II.
Johnson II.
Hoovervilles 2015.
Obama I, with more tee times.
Stalin II
I’ll go with Chavez I.
Raila O’Dinga the First works as well...
Obama II will be like the end of America.
Obama doesn’t like:
America’s success in the world,
The energy levels we consume,
The percentage of the world’s resources we use,
America’s military influence in the world,
The Freedom’s enjoyed by the American people,
Christian influence on American culture,
Christian charities competing with his Gov’t vote buying schemes,
The quality and availability of the Healthcare in America,
With a compliant media clearing the path and covering his tracks, there is nothing to stop him from destroying America.
Why can’t he be Assclown I?
Seems more Woodrow Wilson / FDR to me.
Who dares put obama and Reagan in the same sentence - where’s my bat - I need to break knee caps.
Because it’s his Second Term!
Stalin!
Can’t argue with any of your post. I think the only question is how much and what qualities of America hatred are Obana’s and which are the influences of the puppet masters that put him in power? I realize there may not be much difference.
Stalin II
Mugabe
Wilson III.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.