Skip to comments.Will Obama II Be Reagan I Or Truman III?
Posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:11 PM PST by Perdogg
There are plenty of analogs for market and economic behavior currently echoing the past - some scary, some terrifying, and some hopeful. Barclays found two interestingly similar election-bound relationships to the current environment but with very different outcomes: Harry Truman's successful 'Fair Deal' 1948 campaign and Jimmy Carter's unsuccessful 1980 re-election effort.
In both cases business confidence and capital spending were soft during the election year; however, during the sprint to the November elections the market went in completely different directions.
In 1948, the S&P 500 dropped 11% from June through late September, bounced in October then fell sharply after Truman won in a shocking upset.
In 1980, the S&P 500 rallied 36% from March through late September, had a 5% correction in October followed by a post-election rally to higher levels after Reagan won a decisive victory.
Capital spending fell sharply in late 1948 and 1H49, driving the economy into recession due in part to a monetary policy mistake (raising the reserve requirement), while in 1981 capital spending increased sharply.
This years election had similarities with both. Unfortunately the market traded as if this was 1980, but it turns out we could be headed for Trumans 3rd term (See Figures 3 and 4)..
Clearly the risk is a policy mistake this time fiscal which could drive another capital spending bust and a shallow recession..
So, will Obama's 2nd Term be more like Truman's 3rd or Reagan's 1st for the market and the economy - based on potential for policy mistake... or c) none of the above... .
The 1960s Marxist-Alinsky campus radical, psycho spoiled brats were celebrated in the establishment MSM as the most intelligent generation ever!. They are now arguably that very establishment that praised them and they hold themselves and their ideological issue in even higher regard.
Meet the New Normal..
None of the above. O’s term will look a lot more like Hugo Chavez......the regulations and EOs are coming fast and furious. If you think the drug cartels and jihadis are killers just wait the bureaucrats are coming
When this is all over we will have wished it was Carter or Johnson.
It’s going to be an unpleasant ride.
It’ll be sumpin ....
Market Predictions bump for later........
James Buchanan II.
Already be me to it. I was thinking of Carter III as well.
There has to be something that we can take advantage of. If we KNEW that Carter would win vs. Reagan in 1980, we could have shorted defense stocks, other things. What can we do this time around?
Il Duce del secondo
More like Franklin Delano Wilson.
1963: American Commie kills President.
2013: Commie President kills America.
He has a mandate from the people to do it.
DING DING DING we have a winner!
I’m thinking Obama 2 = James Buchanan.
I am still thinking Hugo Chavez. Some think he will mellow and move towards the center. We didn't see that when Republicans got the house back in 2010 and I certainly don't see that happening now. I am planning for the financial cliff..