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Will Obama II Be Reagan I Or Truman III?
zero hedge ^

Posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:11 PM PST by Perdogg

There are plenty of analogs for market and economic behavior currently echoing the past - some scary, some terrifying, and some hopeful. Barclays found two interestingly similar election-bound relationships to the current environment but with very different outcomes: Harry Truman's successful 'Fair Deal' 1948 campaign and Jimmy Carter's unsuccessful 1980 re-election effort.

Via Barclays:

In both cases business confidence and capital spending were soft during the election year; however, during the sprint to the November elections the market went in completely different directions.

In 1948, the S&P 500 dropped 11% from June through late September, bounced in October then fell sharply after Truman won in a shocking upset.

In 1980, the S&P 500 rallied 36% from March through late September, had a 5% correction in October followed by a post-election rally to higher levels after Reagan won a decisive victory.



Capital spending fell sharply in late 1948 and 1H49, driving the economy into recession due in part to a monetary policy mistake (raising the reserve requirement), while in 1981 capital spending increased sharply.



This year’s election had similarities with both. Unfortunately the market traded as if this was 1980, but it turns out we could be headed for ‘Truman’s 3rd term’ (See Figures 3 and 4)..

Clearly the risk is a policy mistake – this time fiscal – which could drive another capital spending bust and a shallow recession..

So, will Obama's 2nd Term be more like Truman's 3rd or Reagan's 1st for the market and the economy - based on potential for policy mistake... or c) none of the above... .



TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:13 PM PST by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Carter III


2 posted on 11/11/2012 6:48:29 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Perdogg

ObamaII will be like Hitler 1936-1940.


3 posted on 11/11/2012 6:49:32 PM PST by Farmer Dean (stop worrying about what they want to do to you,start thinking about what you want to do to them)
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To: Perdogg

Truman III??


4 posted on 11/11/2012 6:50:06 PM PST by socalgop
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To: Perdogg

Stalin I. Lenin I. Mugabe I. Mao I. Pol Pot I.


5 posted on 11/11/2012 6:53:18 PM PST by lurk
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To: Perdogg

What?

It’s Jimmah Carter II.

Johnson II.

Hoovervilles 2015.


6 posted on 11/11/2012 6:53:18 PM PST by Kevmo ("A person's a person, no matter how small" ~Horton Hears a Who)
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To: Perdogg

Obama I, with more tee times.


7 posted on 11/11/2012 6:55:29 PM PST by AU72
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To: Perdogg

Stalin II


8 posted on 11/11/2012 6:59:50 PM PST by stanne
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To: Perdogg

I’ll go with Chavez I.

Raila O’Dinga the First works as well...


9 posted on 11/11/2012 7:01:55 PM PST by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: Perdogg

Obama II will be like the end of America.

Obama doesn’t like:

America’s success in the world,
The energy levels we consume,
The percentage of the world’s resources we use,
America’s military influence in the world,
The Freedom’s enjoyed by the American people,
Christian influence on American culture,
Christian charities competing with his Gov’t vote buying schemes,
The quality and availability of the Healthcare in America,

With a compliant media clearing the path and covering his tracks, there is nothing to stop him from destroying America.


10 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:35 PM PST by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: Perdogg

Why can’t he be Assclown I?


11 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:35 PM PST by RichInOC (Palin 2016: The Perfect Storm.)
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To: Perdogg

Seems more Woodrow Wilson / FDR to me.


12 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:54 PM PST by Morris70
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To: Perdogg

Who dares put obama and Reagan in the same sentence - where’s my bat - I need to break knee caps.


13 posted on 11/11/2012 7:03:28 PM PST by svcw (Why is one cell on another planet considered life, and in the womb it is not.)
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To: RichInOC

Because it’s his Second Term!


14 posted on 11/11/2012 7:03:51 PM PST by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: Perdogg

Stalin!


15 posted on 11/11/2012 7:04:38 PM PST by meyer (Proud member of the 53%.)
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To: svcw

I don’t understand that either


16 posted on 11/11/2012 7:05:44 PM PST by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: G Larry

Can’t argue with any of your post. I think the only question is how much and what qualities of America hatred are Obana’s and which are the influences of the puppet masters that put him in power? I realize there may not be much difference.


17 posted on 11/11/2012 7:07:46 PM PST by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: Perdogg

Stalin II


18 posted on 11/11/2012 7:10:54 PM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: Perdogg

Mugabe


19 posted on 11/11/2012 7:16:14 PM PST by boomop1 (term limits will only save this country.)
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To: Perdogg

Wilson III.


20 posted on 11/11/2012 7:18:59 PM PST by Lattero
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To: Perdogg
Carter? Reagan? Are you kidding?

The 1960s Marxist-Alinsky campus radical, psycho spoiled brats were celebrated in the establishment MSM as the most intelligent generation ever!. They are now arguably that very establishment that praised them and they hold themselves and their ideological issue in even higher regard.

Meet the New Normal..


21 posted on 11/11/2012 7:20:11 PM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: Perdogg
Carter 2
22 posted on 11/11/2012 7:22:54 PM PST by NonValueAdded ("Our president ... makes big speeches packed full of little ideas" Charles C. W. Cooke)
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To: Perdogg

None of the above. O’s term will look a lot more like Hugo Chavez......the regulations and EOs are coming fast and furious. If you think the drug cartels and jihadis are killers just wait the bureaucrats are coming


23 posted on 11/11/2012 7:31:04 PM PST by Nifster
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To: Kevmo

When this is all over we will have wished it was Carter or Johnson.

It’s going to be an unpleasant ride.


24 posted on 11/11/2012 7:32:39 PM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: Perdogg

It’ll be sumpin ....


25 posted on 11/11/2012 7:33:33 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: Perdogg

Castro.


26 posted on 11/11/2012 7:34:26 PM PST by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
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Comment #27 Removed by Moderator

To: Perdogg

Market Predictions bump for later........


28 posted on 11/11/2012 7:38:11 PM PST by indthkr
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To: Perdogg

James Buchanan II.


29 posted on 11/11/2012 7:51:12 PM PST by rfp1234 (Arguing with a liberal is like playing chess with a pigeon.)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Already be me to it. I was thinking of Carter III as well.


30 posted on 11/11/2012 7:54:24 PM PST by CORedneck
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To: Perdogg

1932


31 posted on 11/11/2012 7:58:15 PM PST by gotribe
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To: unixfox

There has to be something that we can take advantage of. If we KNEW that Carter would win vs. Reagan in 1980, we could have shorted defense stocks, other things. What can we do this time around?


32 posted on 11/11/2012 8:11:55 PM PST by Kevmo ("A person's a person, no matter how small" ~Horton Hears a Who)
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To: Perdogg

Il Duce del secondo


33 posted on 11/11/2012 8:17:47 PM PST by higgmeister ( In the Shadow of The Big Chicken!)
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To: Perdogg

More like Franklin Delano Wilson.


34 posted on 11/11/2012 9:24:27 PM PST by TigersEye (Who is John Galt?)
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To: TigersEye

1963: American Commie kills President.
2013: Commie President kills America.


35 posted on 11/11/2012 9:49:14 PM PST by CPC24
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To: CPC24

He has a mandate from the people to do it.


36 posted on 11/11/2012 9:52:48 PM PST by TigersEye (Who is John Galt?)
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To: Farmer Dean

DING DING DING we have a winner!


37 posted on 11/11/2012 10:30:37 PM PST by crazydad (-` sd)
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To: Perdogg

I’m thinking Obama 2 = James Buchanan.


38 posted on 11/12/2012 2:16:14 AM PST by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Pollster1
I’m thinking Obama 2 = James Buchanan.

I am still thinking Hugo Chavez. Some think he will mellow and move towards the center. We didn't see that when Republicans got the house back in 2010 and I certainly don't see that happening now. I am planning for the financial cliff..

39 posted on 11/12/2012 3:26:02 AM PST by EVO X
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