Skip to comments.The Market Just Figured Out Two HUGE Problems (ObamaNomics DeathWatch™)
Posted on 11/12/2012 1:07:41 PM PST by Zakeet
The US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%.
There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items:
Regarding #1, according to the ECRI, as of June 2012, the US is back in recession. The ECRI has proven far more accurate and timely in predicting recessions than the NBER. And now that the election is over I expect other US data (the ISM, LEI, and employment numbers) to start moving towards reality (bad).
By the way, the US just hit a new record for food stamp usage.
Across the pond, the European banking and sovereign debt crisis continues to worsen: Greece has to redeem 5 billion worth of bonds on Friday. The country just managed to pass its latest budget proposal (which undoubtedly the country will fail to meet just like all the others) but the troika has yet to issue its latest report on Greece.
Germany has stated point blank that without the troika report, Greece wont be getting more funds. Is Germany finally ready to let Greece fail? Its hard to say. But Germany did put together a special advisory panel to focus exclusively on assessing the cost of a Grexit back in August.
Elsewhere in the EU, Spain continues to implode. The mainstream financial media notes that people are now killing themselves when evicted from their homes. However, things are in fact worse than that. My contacts in the country inform me that in some regions the government hasnt even paid its pharmacies in six months. Indeed, the region of Valencia owes its pharmacies an insane 500 million.
This is nothing short of a societal shut down. Expect the civil unrest and economic implosion to accelerate in the coming weeks and months.
And finally, Frances private sector is falling to pieces. Septembers auto sales numbers were worse than those of September 2008. The countrys PMI reading is back to April 2009 levels. And the French Central Bank has announced the country will re-enter recession before year-end.
Again, nothing has been fixed in the last six months. In fact, things have gotten much much worse.
As for #2, it is now clear that the ECB and US Fed used up their last remaining effective bullets this summer in their efforts to aid the Obama re-election campaign (Romney stated he would fire Bernanke, hence the Feds decision while various EU officials admitted the Obama administration requested that they keep things calm in the build up to November).
Indeed, stocks are now sharply down since QE 3. Gold and Silver, in contrast are up. If this dynamic does not change immediately then the positive consequence of the Feds actions (namely stocks rising) is now obsolete while the negative consequence (higher inflation) is about to hit lift off.
What would the market look like without the Feds aid? According to the business cycle the S&P 500 would be closer to 1,000.
In the EU, the ECB announced a plan to make unlimited bond purchases for EU nations that meet various reforms and conditions. The problem with this is that none of the countries that need money (namely Spain and Italy) want to meet any conditions as their economies are already imploding without additional austerity measures (see the information on Spain above).
Thus, the ECB promise has in fact turned out to be a colossal bluff. At the end of the day, Mario Draghi can say whatever he wants, but unless Germany is willing to go along with the ECB, he cant do much of anything. Germany demands conditions therefore so does the ECB.
So the global economy continues to slow. Europe is burning (literally in some countries). And the primary Central Banks (the Fed and the ECB) are out of ammo.
things are about to get messy.
Before much longer, even these meatheads are going to figure out that elections have consequences!
Meatheads NEVER think logically, that is why they are meatheads!
Don’t wait for the Kenyan’s subjects to see the light, they are lost to communism...they are no longer Americans.
Subtract dollar deflation from the Dow
and the real numbers around high 8870.
Collectivism, made up of the emotionally immature, cannot accept responsibility.
It can only blame someone or something else.
The only thing that was keeping the market going was the perception that Romney might win. With that gone, the run is beginning.
Yep. I read on another site a few days ago that some liberal group in Texas is trying to get a law passed. They want the police to go into any ones home without permission and confiscate all their food in case of a crises. They say all confiscated food should be equally shared with others in the area.
They're not even prepping for themselves. They're once again waiting for everyone else to spend all their money and do all the work. They STILL want someone else to steal for them !!
Even after all the damage they've done to this country, they still don't get it. They still think everyone else will be there to wait on them and take care of them if the economy collapses.
The markets will realize that it cannot survive under communism. We are there and not likely to reverse for many years. The future will see feeble attempts to shore it up.
I’d like to read about that, if you could give me a link or give me something to search with. Thanks
What they’ll “figure out” is that
“the nasty, greedy, vindictive conservative business owners caused this to happen”.
I really am beyond caring whom they blame, as long as they experience the consequences of their ideology.
Conservatives have always understood that bad things would result from Obama’s re-election. We can start to see that Romney would have only delayed the inevitable. The media and the financial markets in this country are completely corrupt. There is no way we can continue function like that
It is all part of Gods plan. The fact that the Democrats seem to own this Goebbel’s like media machine in the US, is a huge problem. The Goldman Sachs-Federal Reserve nepotism and cronyism is too much. Without truth we have nothing. We are living in a strange Orwellian nation, from that standpoint we are no better than China. If it weren’t for our faith we would be completely lost. Prayers Friends, and be glad He is in charge.
After the SHTF, any cop that pull onto my spread will get more than he/she bargained for!
And the feds are printing $40 Billion per month ( QE3) just to keep our faux economy alive.
They can't keep printing money to keep their social programs going forever.
What they're going to do about all those dependent people when the money runs out is the most frightening part. The parasites will be demanding their "entitlements", but there won't be any.
Even more frightening, the "scientists" at the UN have been screaming for population reduction. An economic collapse would do just that. So, don't expect the pro-UN politicians to try to fix it - or stop it.
All those things have been known and factored in. I thought the market and betting odds assumed obama would win. What this tells me is many of these investors may have bet that obama would win but held out hope romney would win. Now that it is settled they are cashing in their chits
they'll get my ammo too
The UN is in New York City ... in an economic collapse, that would be zombieland. Even after the recent hurricane and following nor'easter, I think folks don't really understand how desperately fragile cities are.
“...the negative consequence (higher inflation) is about to hit lift off.”
About to? Gas was $1.86 a gallon when Hussein Obama took office. Now its $3.17 a gallon where I live. That’s a 70% increase.
Last year a baked chicken was $4.99 at my local Walmart. Now it is $5.99. That’s a 20% increase in a year.
With the printing presses running non-stop, this will only get worse. Currency debasement is a cancer that will eventually cause the death of the economy.
It was mentioned on Urbansurvival.com. The site owner, apparently, lives in Texas. That's all the info he gave on it. He's a big time prepper.
His site, and expertise, is economics rather than politics, but he does cover quite a bit of it.
I did a quick search to find more, but this group was just getting started, so I'm sure it's small at this point. Once they gather enough parasites to join them, I'm sure we'll be hearing more about it.
They know good people are preparing, and as usual, they're going to be demanding a piece of everyone elses pie - again, by force - like they always do.
So the left demonizes the rich as evil and somehow they believe that those evil people will just sit back and eat the increased taxes, increased business regulations, etc.. no they will never pass those costs on to consumers right?
That is the idiocy that defines the American left, but Obama has no more road left to kick the can down.
Sounds like the old fable about the ant & the grasshopper. Although locusts might be a more apropos counterpart to the ant when describing today’s liberals.
Actually, when you think about it, they can keep printing money forever. Well, at least as long as there’s an electrical supply to power the printing presses.
Heck, look at Japan: debt-to-GDP ratio of 233%. They just keep cranking out yen, and pretty much no end in sight. They have to keep their social welfare systems going to care of their increasingly elderly population (demographic implosion).
Simply put, as long as the politicians decide to keep the printing presses going, they’ll crank out the dollars. It’ll debase the currency, to be sure, through devaluation, but as long as the politicians choose to keep printing the greenbacks, they will.
And besides, according to John of Orange Hue, (Boehner), it’s time to “fall into line” and get things done. That’s politics for you.
Never, NEVER, go full Democrat!
Perhaps, but they'll still blame Bush.
I think that's why Agenda21 wants as many people forced into cities as possible. When people are packed into cages, they're easier to control - and eliminate if the need arises (to save the planet, of course).
Well, the standard poor man’s protein-peanut butter was $1.00 now it is $2.25. That’s 125%.
Of course, food and gas aren’t included in Cola calculations.
So far the money printing propped up the market. How much longer before a 1929 or 2008 crash or worse?
They will not. Obama people are lifers.
Subtract inflation since the U.S. switched from the Dollar to the Federal Reserve Note and the Dow is around 8
Look up the term “DOW in gold dollars” (also called “DIG$”) ... that’s how I value the stock market. :)
That’s interesting. My gut feel for some time has that the Dow should be around 8-9000. Anything above that is just fluff.
Disclaimer: I have no money in the stock market.
Thanks for the info
The Fed is printing $85 Billion a month, 40 Billion to buy Mortgage Backed Securities and $45 Billion to buy US Treasury Bonds (US debt to keep the dream alive).
If the House of Representatives must initiate ALL taxes, and the Supreme Court has ruled that obamcare is a TAX, why does not the House of Representatives just refuse to implement it??????
I know it is much too simple, but still...
I saw a Tweet today that may explain why your typical Libs think that way:
@TwitchyTeam when gov, can just keep spending without repercussions, no surprising that there are people who think business can also
Made sense to me! Heck, when you think about it, they see almost no repercussions for ANYONE’S spending habits.
It will be blamed on George W. Bush.
Because the bigger and more powerful the government gets, the more power, and therefore luxuries, the Republicans get when they're in charge.
The Republicans, no matter how many times the American taxpayers vote them in, have never gotten rid of anything the democrats have done. In fact, they've added to it themselves.
The Republicans won't save us, either. We're slaves - sweat equity. Some one has to pay for it all. If the slaves escape, the political elites empire comes crashing down. They'd have to live like.....UGH!....the rest of us "animals."
Because it is already law.
See: Lower Manhattan, New Jersey.
That’s exactly what it is. They have this attitude that businesses have this endless supply of money at their disposal. It’s disgusting.
If it's a tax, no, it's not. Tax bills have to originate in the house. Obomacare is a senate bill. It may have "passed", but it wasn't created following Constitutional procedures. Therefore, it's unconstitutional as a tax if the procedure itself is argued.
If the Republicans wanted to stop it, they could. They could simply defund it. It's not valid unless it's re-written by the house and brought up by the house for a re-vote.
It's just that Republicans like it (I.E., it's the good 'ol good cop/bad cop routine).
Remember. Washington sees us as a slave force and not as human beings. We're dollar signs. In Washington, it's all about power and money. It has nothing to do with us. We're like the public school kids - slabs of meat on an assembly line. Each one has a dollar value. We're born, we pay, we die.
I believe once a politician spends too much time living in the beltway, they lose all their sense of humanity. When they need our attention for some reason, they become like actors on a stage. They say they're doing everything for us. Yes, it's all for us (and the ignorant audience cheers them on).
I’m in IT so this is really my knowledge area.
I think it’s tied to GDP. And that dollar and QE
Deflates it, among gold .
In my view the US govt is like the family in 2007 riding a wave of false prosperity based on maxxed out credit cards and helocs on a house with negative equity.
It can’t end well....
The other day, my daughter said, “Everyone thinks we’re rich because we own a business.”
We live in the same tumble-down, perpetually-being-restored old house we lived in before we started the business. Our newest vehicle is 10 years old, just as before we started the business. We haven’t taken a vacation in 5 years. NOTHING has changed in our lifestyle but suddenly everyone thinks we’re rich.
I just want to bang my head against the wall...
“The Republicans, no matter how many times the American taxpayers vote them in, have never gotten rid of anything the democrats have done.”
Not quite...Reagan signed the death warrant for the Interstate Commerce Commission, and Clinton executed it in 1995. That means it died at the ripe old age of 108.
But they don’t think anything bad is going to happen because not much has happened to the irresponsible big spenders they know.
Credit card debt? File bankruptcy and that’ll all go away. (I know someone on their third bankruptcy. It’s just a get-out-of-jail-free card to them.)
Can’t afford the house? The government will force the lender to let you stay.
Sheesh, they see people that have never held a job in their lives with plenty of food, heat, medical care and enough cash for tattoos and booze.
What could possibly go wrong? Big Daddy has always made everything okay so far!
Don’t count on it.
So much for my retirement plans.
I have started eating my savings.